Detroit Pistons' Andre Drummond (0) scores as San Antonio Spurs defenders Boris Diaw (33) and Patty Mills (8) look on during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2015, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
The late season NBA is making me actually tear my hair out. What's left of it, anyway. I'm going to look like Doug soon 🙁 I've been listening to this piano piece from DFSR user Jared Reynolds on repeat to try and calm my nerves. But you do your thing.
So, where to begin? There's not a team playing today that is playing for anything. So we have that going for us, which is nice. It should be just about the least certain day ever, making these picks somewhat of an exercise in futility. You absolutely have to follow up with the updates article (which will be posted around noon EST at the latest), and of course, we'll be updating our projection system as news rolls in throughout the day. That being said, let's try and tackle the beast.
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Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 34.3 DK Proj. Pts - 35.21
Prepared for the first shocker of the night? I'm playing 76ers today! In a terrible match-up with the Raptors! The reasoning is pretty straightofrward, actually. It's a small slate, and the only certainty is uncertainty. The Sixers, meanwhile, have been mathematically eliminated since December, and we can have a pretty good sense of what they intend to do right now. What's that? Their best. Ish played 39 minutes (albeit in overtime) against the Bucks, and now has back to back 41+ fantasy point games. He's attacking the rim again, and I suspect we'll see more of the same now that Cleveland has locked up the 1 seed and he should be playing against a fair amount of B-teamers here. I like him in any format.
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 45.73 DK Proj. Pts - 47.3
So this comes with a huge caveat - I expect the Thunder to rest on of their big two tonight, and if that happens to be KD, then I love Westbrook. The Spurs have nothing left to play for, and while the Thunder don't either, the Spurs seem a lot more likely to go totally weird in this game. As of this writing, Westbrook is on pace to play 34 minutes against the hapless Lakers. I have no reason to believe he won't do the same against the Spurs here, and while it's obviously not an ideal match-up, it's impossible to find safety at the big money spots today.
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 29.31 DK Proj. Pts - 30.34
I have a hunch that Detroit wouldn't mind avoiding the Cavaliers in round 1, and that since they're healthy, they might run their starters something like normal minutes today. If they do, then Jackson looks like a fairly solid play given what else is going on in the slate. He exploded for for 52 fantasy points in 34 minutes against the Wizards, and happened to win a few of our lineup optimizer subscribers some big tournaments in the process. I wouldn't count on that in a much tougher match-up here, but he's the one guy I like as relatively safe on this slate unless we hear otherwise.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 21.41 DK Proj. Pts - 22.44
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 19.6 DK Proj. Pts - 21.16
Shooting guard is an actual abomination today. So me? I'm probably going cheap. I suspect we'll get other punt plays before it's all said and done, but both of these guys are playing big minutes right now thanks to a combination of their teams not caring about winning and being banged up. And they've performed admirably, at least for daily fantasy basketball purposes. Vujacic has paid 5x-7x points per dollar in each of his last 4 games, and Stauskas has had a similar game average with higher booms and lower busts. I'm very tempted to just go super cheap at shooting guard and move on with my life.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 32.69 DK Proj. Pts - 33.18
While the Heat have locked up their playoff spot, they are still in contention for home court advantage in round 1, and I have a feeling we'll see at least 31 minutes of Wade in this one. KCP is a tough defender, but there frankly aren't many bad shooting guard defenses going today, and I could see Wade showing up in some double-up lineups of mine if we hear that he's definitely playing.
Also considered: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. This goes for basically every Piston today, but I really feel like SVG isn't one to just rest everyone. If we hear that he's definitely playing, he probably gets a bump above Wade.
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Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 32.12 DK Proj. Pts - 35.23
All Sixers night, baby! Covington has been on a three game tear, averaging nearly a 20/10 with a couple of steals. Yes, those were some soft match-ups. And yes, this isn't a soft match-up. But if he's going to be out there for 35+ minutes as one of the Sixers' only competent offensive players, I sort of think we can count on production like we've been seeing. A healthy Ish makes a big difference for him, as it gives him a lot more perimeter looks (Ish is one of the most prolific drivers AND most prolific passers in driving situations). Love him anywhere.
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.95 DK Proj. Pts - 30.18
Memphis could technically still leapfrog the Trail Blazers and get a first round date with the Clippers instead of OKC, and I think they might try and do just that. Barnes has played 36-41 minutes in each of his last 4 games, and has paid 4.5x points per dollar or better in each of those match-ups. With the Clippers playing for nothing at this point, it wouldn't shock me to see them at least soft-play this one (they might very well be happier to see Memphis in round 1 than Portland). Barnes looks plenty safe at a reasonable price, especially on DraftKings.
Watch the Paul George situation. If he sits, CJ Miles and Solomon Hill are intriguing. And, in general, I wouldn't be surprised if we get some tasty small forward punts that bump one of the above guys.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 32.29 DK Proj. Pts - 32.76
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 24.24 DK Proj. Pts - 25.64
You guessed it! It's with great excitement that I recommend all five Sixers players today. I'm telling you, the Sixers are trying to desperately show that they have some talent so they can sell season tickets next season - there's no other explanation for them playing all these guys huge minutes. But, interestingly, it just means that all of the starters are sort of underpriced right now. Noel seems to be by far the safest of these two (since Grant's minutes do come and go), as he put up easy double doubles in each of the last two games with plenty of defensive stats to go with them. But I'd be happy with either given various price constraints.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 23.32 DK Proj. Pts - 24.59
He'd been very solid before disappearing against the Raptors, and I'd be stunned if we see Porzingis on the court again this season. With the Knicks trying to help everyone forget this season ever happened, Williams should be a nice high floor player today.
Also considered: Blake Griffin! He's back, baby! And he's so cheap compared to what he can do. The only thing I don't totally trust is the minutes. Unless the Clippers decide they just don't want to tempt karma and turn one over to a team they might face in round 1, it's hard to imagine Blake logging 34 minutes again. Still, tons of upside here.
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 36.8 DK Proj. Pts - 37.49
Just following the same theory laid out with the Pistons guys above. It's going to be hard to spend the money today, and center seems like a fine place to do so. To that effect, I also don't mind Hassan Whiteside, especially if we find out that he's starting again. But yeah, Drummond is very reasonably priced for a guy who has put up 40+ fantasy points per game regularly this season, and I expect him to be a high floor play here.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 27.42 DK Proj. Pts - 27.83
My favorite high upside guy at the position, and you can make arguments for his safety as well. With the Knicks in full mail-it-in mode right now, Lopez has been featured prominently on both sides of the ball. He put up 44+ fantasy points against the Sixers and Pacers in the last week, while also sprinkling in a couple of duds. But yes, one of those big games was against the same Pacers, and that was when the Pacers were actually trying. I'm not sure you can call him safe, but I can definitely picture scenarios where he's on the winning big tournament lineup.
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View Comments
Hahaha love it!
I really enjoyed your Easy Listening Piano Music, Jared Reynolds. Congrats on making it to the DFSR daily picks page! You've hit the big-time!
Haha thank you! Lol feeling like the big man on campus. Let's get these wins tonight!
So glad I'm not totally insane. Finished filling out a few double ups way to early this am and it was littered with sixers. Then I catch the article and realize I'm not a complete loon. Well maybe I am for still playing this time of the season
Maybe we're all loons! Everyday I see posts that say "I'm done until the playoffs start" . Then the very next day I see the same names asking if they should play Frazier or Berrea. We're all out of our damn minds! lol
Great picks as always. You guys are crucial with helping me find my pivot plays. Ive been playing frazier every time he's on the court based on the eye-test, and consistently cashing. Really hope the pels keep him, and move Cole...imagine his passing/vision with AD, holiday, and Gordon playing with him!
Anyone else planning on using lowry and derozen at home tonight? Last home game of season, Best season in team history, seems like a spot they would want to thank fans for support.
i wont use
lowery tonight he seems to be in a slump to me as far as scoring is concerned. Hes only scored over 20 points in 2 of his last 6 contest! Not enough for me to roster him tonight
You posted "There is not a team playing today for anything tonight"...that is not correct...there are 4 teams if i am correct that are jockeying for playoff seeding especially the Miami detroit game so there IS reason for some teams to 'bring it' tonight
For sure crazy to be playing tonight but that's not going to stop any of us, let's be honest. ;)
I know it's gonna be really tough to project the minutes but, anyone else think Westbrook goes for the record tonight? Feel like I have to roster him in a lineup or two just in case.
Said it before but I'll say it again, thanks DFSR! Still waiting to hit a big one, but your picks have kept me in the the money all season. Shit, you guys are so good you've got me playing and cashing in baseball now after years of not paying attention to the game!
Ooof, big loss last night but that won't stop me from doubling down tonight.
Nate - good call on Frazier over Cole. He has looked great these past few weeks, could be a fantastic fit for their team (i envision him as a 2nd unit PG off the bench behind Holiday / Tyreke in the starting lineup)
Chinedu - there's a good chance i roster them both in a GPP lineup that's also stacked with nerlens, ish, covington
Marcus - I had that same thought last night. I don't have a read either way, but i'll probably start the night with Westbrook in my cash lineups, assuming this narrative holds true. But i'll be prepared with a Durant pivot (in case Westy sits and Durant plays) as well as a Whiteside pivot (in case both sit). Only problem is Miami tips off 30 minutes before OKC, so here's to an early news day....
My whiteside pivot would take me from Westbrook / Jerami Grant, to Whiteside / Tobias Harris
Any reason Whiteside / Harris is a bad move?
Don't know how true this is but keep eyes open for this one: Kevin Durant (rest) is unlikely to play Tuesday.
Ive seen Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka all unlikely (rest) for tonight.