Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/12/16

The late season NBA is making me actually tear my hair out. What's left of it, anyway. I'm going to look like Doug soon 🙁 I've been listening to this piano piece from DFSR user Jared Reynolds on repeat to try and calm my nerves. But you do your thing.

So, where to begin? There's not a team playing today that is playing for anything. So we have that going for us, which is nice. It should be just about the least certain day ever, making these picks somewhat of an exercise in futility. You absolutely have to follow up with the updates article (which will be posted around noon EST at the latest), and of course, we'll be updating our projection system as news rolls in throughout the day. That being said, let's try and tackle the beast.

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POINT GUARD

Ish Smith - FD 6700 DK 6500
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 34.3 DK Proj. Pts - 35.21
Prepared for the first shocker of the night? I'm playing 76ers today! In a terrible match-up with the Raptors! The reasoning is pretty straightofrward, actually. It's a small slate, and the only certainty is uncertainty. The Sixers, meanwhile, have been mathematically eliminated since December, and we can have a pretty good sense of what they intend to do right now. What's that? Their best. Ish played 39 minutes (albeit in overtime) against the Bucks, and now has back to back 41+ fantasy point games. He's attacking the rim again, and I suspect we'll see more of the same now that Cleveland has locked up the 1 seed and he should be playing against a fair amount of B-teamers here. I like him in any format.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10400 DK 10100
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 45.73 DK Proj. Pts - 47.3
So this comes with a huge caveat - I expect the Thunder to rest on of their big two tonight, and if that happens to be KD, then I love Westbrook. The Spurs have nothing left to play for, and while the Thunder don't either, the Spurs seem a lot more likely to go totally weird in this game. As of this writing, Westbrook is on pace to play 34 minutes against the hapless Lakers. I have no reason to believe he won't do the same against the Spurs here, and while it's obviously not an ideal match-up, it's impossible to find safety at the big money spots today.

Reggie Jackson - FD 6400 DK 6400
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 29.31 DK Proj. Pts - 30.34
I have a hunch that Detroit wouldn't mind avoiding the Cavaliers in round 1, and that since they're healthy, they might run their starters something like normal minutes today. If they do, then Jackson looks like a fairly solid play given what else is going on in the slate. He exploded for for 52 fantasy points in 34 minutes against the Wizards, and happened to win a few of our lineup optimizer subscribers some big tournaments in the process. I wouldn't count on that in a much tougher match-up here, but he's the one guy I like as relatively safe on this slate unless we hear otherwise.

SHOOTING GUARD

Sasha Vujacic - FD 4100 DK 3700
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 21.41 DK Proj. Pts - 22.44
Nik Stauskas - FD 4100 DK 3800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 19.6 DK Proj. Pts - 21.16
Shooting guard is an actual abomination today. So me? I'm probably going cheap. I suspect we'll get other punt plays before it's all said and done, but both of these guys are playing big minutes right now thanks to a combination of their teams not caring about winning and being banged up. And they've performed admirably, at least for daily fantasy basketball purposes. Vujacic has paid 5x-7x points per dollar in each of his last 4 games, and Stauskas has had a similar game average with higher booms and lower busts. I'm very tempted to just go super cheap at shooting guard and move on with my life.

Dwyane Wade - FD 7100 DK 6300
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 32.69 DK Proj. Pts - 33.18
While the Heat have locked up their playoff spot, they are still in contention for home court advantage in round 1, and I have a feeling we'll see at least 31 minutes of Wade in this one. KCP is a tough defender, but there frankly aren't many bad shooting guard defenses going today, and I could see Wade showing up in some double-up lineups of mine if we hear that he's definitely playing.

Also considered: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. This goes for basically every Piston today, but I really feel like SVG isn't one to just rest everyone. If we hear that he's definitely playing, he probably gets a bump above Wade.

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SMALL FORWARD

Robert Covington - FD 6700 DK 6800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 32.12 DK Proj. Pts - 35.23
All Sixers night, baby! Covington has been on a three game tear, averaging nearly a 20/10 with a couple of steals. Yes, those were some soft match-ups. And yes, this isn't a soft match-up. But if he's going to be out there for 35+ minutes as one of the Sixers' only competent offensive players, I sort of think we can count on production like we've been seeing. A healthy Ish makes a big difference for him, as it gives him a lot more perimeter looks (Ish is one of the most prolific drivers AND most prolific passers in driving situations). Love him anywhere.

Matt Barnes - FD 6100 DK 5400
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.95 DK Proj. Pts - 30.18
Memphis could technically still leapfrog the Trail Blazers and get a first round date with the Clippers instead of OKC, and I think they might try and do just that. Barnes has played 36-41 minutes in each of his last 4 games, and has paid 4.5x points per dollar or better in each of those match-ups. With the Clippers playing for nothing at this point, it wouldn't shock me to see them at least soft-play this one (they might very well be happier to see Memphis in round 1 than Portland). Barnes looks plenty safe at a reasonable price, especially on DraftKings.

Watch the Paul George situation. If he sits, CJ Miles and Solomon Hill are intriguing. And, in general, I wouldn't be surprised if we get some tasty small forward punts that bump one of the above guys.

POWER FORWARD

Nerlens Noel - FD 6800 DK 6200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 32.29 DK Proj. Pts - 32.76
Jerami Grant - FD 5200 DK 4800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 24.24 DK Proj. Pts - 25.64
You guessed it! It's with great excitement that I recommend all five Sixers players today. I'm telling you, the Sixers are trying to desperately show that they have some talent so they can sell season tickets next season - there's no other explanation for them playing all these guys huge minutes. But, interestingly, it just means that all of the starters are sort of underpriced right now. Noel seems to be by far the safest of these two (since Grant's minutes do come and go), as he put up easy double doubles in each of the last two games with plenty of defensive stats to go with them. But I'd be happy with either given various price constraints.

Derrick Williams - FD 4700 DK 4300
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 23.32 DK Proj. Pts - 24.59
He'd been very solid before disappearing against the Raptors, and I'd be stunned if we see Porzingis on the court again this season. With the Knicks trying to help everyone forget this season ever happened, Williams should be a nice high floor player today.

Also considered: Blake Griffin! He's back, baby! And he's so cheap compared to what he can do. The only thing I don't totally trust is the minutes. Unless the Clippers decide they just don't want to tempt karma and turn one over to a team they might face in round 1, it's hard to imagine Blake logging 34 minutes again. Still, tons of upside here.

CENTER

Andre Drummond - FD 7700 DK 7400
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 36.8 DK Proj. Pts - 37.49
Just following the same theory laid out with the Pistons guys above. It's going to be hard to spend the money today, and center seems like a fine place to do so. To that effect, I also don't mind Hassan Whiteside, especially if we find out that he's starting again. But yeah, Drummond is very reasonably priced for a guy who has put up 40+ fantasy points per game regularly this season, and I expect him to be a high floor play here.

Robin Lopez - FD 6000 DK 5600
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 27.42 DK Proj. Pts - 27.83
My favorite high upside guy at the position, and you can make arguments for his safety as well. With the Knicks in full mail-it-in mode right now, Lopez has been featured prominently on both sides of the ball. He put up 44+ fantasy points against the Sixers and Pacers in the last week, while also sprinkling in a couple of duds. But yes, one of those big games was against the same Pacers, and that was when the Pacers were actually trying. I'm not sure you can call him safe, but I can definitely picture scenarios where he's on the winning big tournament lineup.

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