Welcome to the daily updates and injury news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock tonight.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
Very little! The only fairly clear one to me is that Aaron Gordon and Victor Oladipo are really, really unlikely to play today. Both are dealing with concussion issues, and even Scott Skiles ought to be smart enough to preserve the actual brains of his two building block players. As for what will happen if they do both miss again, it's a bit of a mystery. The Magic got blown out by the Heat on Sunday, and minutes were all over the place. The way it looked like things were trending before things got out of hand, I'd guess Fournier, Vucevic, and Hezonja will all be solid DFS plays in their absence tonight. Do I trust it? No. No, I don't. But I wouldn't be shocked if winning tournament lineups had one of those guys in it.
With Rose and Moore shelved for the season and Butler almost certainly in line for some kind of reprieve, Holiday is one of the last men standing in Chicago. Paying today's prices should be rather trivial to the heir apparent to all the guard minutes, but there's some risk if Aaron Brooks gets hot or plays a bigger role than we anticipate.
Full disclosure - this one might not be for the faint of heart. The Bulls are going to be short something like 90 minutes (Rose, Moore, Gasol), and we don't really have precedent for this. The nice thing is that they're playing against another D-League squad in New Orleans, so once we hear who's starting we should at least be mildly out of the woods. I like Mirotic best because of the track record, but I could definitely see Cristiano Felicio and Bobby Portis putting up big games as well.
Rondo, Collison, and Belinelli are out
Uh. This leaves a LOT of run for Seth Curry, Ben Mclemore, and James Anderson. Curry is my favorite of the bunch by a country mile, but I could also see James Anderson taking on an increased role. Rudy Gay is another big winner here - he could shoot fully half of the Kings' shots. And I'd say there's blowout risk given the amount of NBA talent playing here... but they're up against a non-NBA team as well. Could be the very worst game of the year, and I'm pumped to sweat it!
Tyson Chandler has been ruled out
Leaving a big opening for Jon Leuer to step up, and for Alex Len to get more minutes. I think we can catually trust Leuer if he starts, and this makes Len a heck of a lot more appealing to me as well. Don't think it affects Teletovic as much, since he can't really play the 5.
Sessions and Thornton were both phenomenal as compared to their prices against the Hornets, and with nothing to play for, the Wiz are pretty likely to rest their fragile stars here. It's another great match-up for the Wizards - the Nets are a D-League team with big league uniforms - so I'd start both in any format if I knew that Beal and Wall were out again.
Both are battling injuries. Williams played 29 minutes against the Clips (not enough to justify rostering him at these prices), and Barea sat entirely. Both have the questionable tag for tonight, and the Mavs obviously have every incentive to try and win this one. Devin Harris has been pretty bad from a fantasy perspective even with the uncertain situation, and Raymond Felton has been rather awesome. If both Barea and Williams sit, Felton would be a great play in any format.
It's as close to a must-win as there can be for the Jazz, and Favors' conspicuous absence from Sunday's game is unsettling to say the least. He was listed in the starting lineup, and was scratched at the very last second against Denver. And it's not like he'd been himself recently, anyway. If the knee keeps him out of this one, our lineup optimizer is very bullish on Trey Lyles' chances against the Mavs similarly tired out front court.
He sat for "rest" reasons for two straight games, including the Kings' last home game. It's pretty darn odd, and the Kings have been tight lipped about his status for tonight's contest. He'd be a great play against the Suns if he starts, and Darren Collison will be nearly a must play if Rondo is out again.
Robinson left Sunday's game early, and all hell broke loose for the Nets as they went super small. I'd have figured Chris McCullough and Henry Sims would have gotten the extra run at big, but the Nets decided to just try and shoot the lights out instead. They didn't, but Brown put up a stunning 52 fantasy points and an extremely well rounded offense/defense line. In this one I'd expect they'd at least try a more conventional Sims/McCullough pairing, and either could be decent if they got the start. If Robinson plays I wouldn't bother, as an early exit is very much a possibility once again.
Which of the good teams will rest people?
The main teams to keep an eye on are Cleveland, Atlanta, Boston, and OKC, but don't be surprised if Chicago gives some keys to their future (Rose, Butler) a night off as well. As for the good teams, I'm not sure how much you can even trust the minutes for the earlier games. If LeBron is starting, would they really play him for 39 minutes again? It just seems insane. Since there's enough value in the known quantities (the long since eliminated teams, the teams still playing for something), I'll be turning my attention toward them.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 56.39 DK Proj. Pts - 59.52
A 100% start in 50/50s and double ups? Only time will tell. But he's playing 42+ minutes tonight guaranteed, and every other big money guy outside of Giannis has some serious question marks playing time wise tonight. I won't even get cute in big tournaments - Harden is my guy tonight.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 25.25 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
This'll happen if you put up 8-9x points per dollar on your price in 2 of your last three games. These projected numbers could be absurdly low, but our lineup optimizer is skeptical of recent bursts in production. Still, he's running the entire show in Washington right now, and it's nothing short of crazy to sit the guy if we get definitive word on Wall and Beal.
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 30.85 DK Proj. Pts - 31.44
On DraftKings in particular. The Mavs have been playing a poo-poo platter of guys at big, and Gobert is one of the true pure centers in the league. He should destroy the Mavs on the boards, and cause some trouble on the offensive end as well. The question with Gobert is never the points per minute production, it's the damned minutes. He should get his minutes in this do or die game, and his prices should mean maximum safety at a tough position.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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View Comments
Why hasn't anyone mentioned Frank Kamensky? PF from CHA. Dudes been solid in points/min for $3800.
Dude is kickin ass for his price....
Hey question since I'm new to the system: what do you guys set the results variance to? Trying to get a feel for how this all works & get the most out of the optimizer. Thanks
even tho the pelicans guards have nothing to play for im still giving frazier and douglas a good look tonight they both have been putting up 30 plus a night any thoughts? would also like to know how you guys feel about Vucevic?
From a matchup perspective, I think Vucevic could be huge tonight. He matches up great against the Milwaukee bigs. And with no Oladipo, i could see them running their offense through him, more so than Elf. All speculation here of course, but i think this is a plausible scenario that could mean big upside.
I don't have him in any lineups at the moment, i kind of like WCS at his price point and no Boogie, but that could change.
I don't see anything wrong with the Pel's guard's matchups, but the presence of Ramon Sessions at $1,100 less forces me away from them.
Anyone want to weight in on a WCS play? Is he too risky for cash? I just feel like the odds of a 30 pt game at $5,000 are looking pretty nice.
CWS scares me and for the price tag i think theres people out there that will offer me better production! If you think Marvin Williams can avoid foul trouble and play 30 minutes that may be a better direction to look jmo
And no Pau! Bobby Bobby Portis time?
No Rose! This is a tough one. Mirotic/Brooks/Butler. One of those guys crushes tonight.
Possibly. Don't know why the Bulls would play Butler any real minutes. But who knows. This time of year is so tricky and nearly every team is locked into it's position.
Frank a pretty risky play at this point unless he's starting for williams, or you think the game is going to be a blowout for either side. Last 3 games were a bit of an oddity with the opportunity he's had, though he has improved as season gone on.
The Bulls are a mess. Rose and Pau done for the year and Hoiberg says today he probably should have staggered Rose and Butlers minutes... ya know since they don't play well together... and Butler is in New Orleans but skipped the team charter and went on his own..... mess.... having said that Aaron Brooks will probably play 48 minutes :) and Mirotic might be in full on chuck mode.
What about Beverly with something to play for against Minnesota
Pat bev has a nice price tag and is gettin minutes i cann see him giving rick rubio a hard time who is struggling right now. I actually have him stacked with harden, howard and ariza in a line up
I don't mind Beverley at all, though his minutes have been more erratic than the others.
why would you say watch Boston and Atlanta as teams to rest players? they are competing for 3-6 positioning in East.
Seeding matters oh so much less than being healthy for the playoffs. I don't think they'll rest their players entirely, but I wouldn't be shocked to see guys get reduced minutes (and, consequently, worse production).