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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/11/16
Here we are with another split-slate day of baseball. We have some aces on the mound as well as some gas cans which should make it a very fun day. Make sure to comment down below if you have any questions or comments! Let's get to it.
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PITCHER
David Price FD 10500 DK 12200
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @BOS
FD - 46.52 DK - 26.62
David price will be facing off with the Baltimore Orioles at home in a game with a 8 1/2 over/under. The Red Sox are favored at -190 which shows me Vegas expects the Sox to win this game pretty easily. The Orioles have a ton of strikeout hitters in the lineup with Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Jonanthan Schoop. Price should be able to take advantage of the Orioles weaknesses and get an easy win with Yovani Gallardo on the other side. Price exhibited a .275 wOBA last season and has pitched better over the course of his career. Price is a great cash game and tournament play in the early slate.
Andrew Cashner FD 6900 DK 8700
Opponent - PHI (Nola) Park - @PHI
FD - 30.29 DK - 15.95
You will see the opposing pitcher of the Phillies in this article all year long. The Phillies lineup is absolutely putrid and has so many spots to take advantage of. Andrew Cashner has struggled over the past season but is looking to put it all together this year. he has upped his fastball velocity and has his secondary pitches are moving better than ever. This game is sitting at an 8 over/under with the Padres -120. I expect Cashner to get off to a fast start and strikeout a ton of batters. I prefer Cashner in tournaments as he has a very low floor and high ceiling. Cashner isn't a strong consideration on DratKings on these prices.
Max Scherzer FD 11600 DK 13100
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @WSH
FD - 48.15 DK - 27.47
Scherzer will be facing off with the Braves for the second time in 2 starts. On opening day, Scherzer went 7 innings with 7 strikeouts and 2 ER. I am expecting a better game here as he will have a longer leash and just saw the same lineup a week ago. These Braves are a very intimidating lineup as Freddie Freeman is the only real HR threat. Scherzer sported a terrific .253 wOBA last season and his peripherals have shown no sign of decline. You can feel safe when rostering Scherzer that you will get 110 pitches and 8 strikeouts out of him. This game has a 7 over/under and the Nationals are -253. This puts the braves expected run total at a putrid 2.6.
CATCHER
Francisco Cervelli FD 2600 DK 3400
Opponent - DET (Verlander) Park - @DET
FD - 2.01 DK - 1.62
Francisco Cervelli emerged last year as a quality hitter. Cervelli had a 113 wRC+ against righties last year and showed his power upside. Verlander's ERA improved last season, but his peripherals were the same - his 4.15 xFIP was nearly the exact same as the 4.19 figure he posted the year before. This is an average ballpark for hitters so it does not move the needle too much for me. Cervelli is a solid option in both cash games and tournaments.
Victor Martinez FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @DET
FD - 9.8 DK - 7.83
Victor Martinez is in a terrific spot here against Jon Niese. Niese struggles against hitters from the right side of the plate and Martinez is great against pitchers from the left side. Niese sported a .330 wOBA to righties and you can only expect that to get worse due to age. Martinez will be in a few great RBI opportunities with players like Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez hitting around him. I prefer Martinez in cash games as he has a high floor and average ceiling.
Consider: Travis D'Arnaud
FIRST BASE
Miguel Cabrera FD 4400 DK 5000
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @DET
FD - 12.15 DK - 9.56
Miguel Cabrera has started off the year strong and will likely keep it going throughout the entire season. As Mentioned above, Jon Niese struggles against righties with a .330 wOBA to them. You will see a trend in this article and that trend is the Detroit Tigers right handed bats. Miggy is the top hitter in the lineup and will likely be the top performer. Miggy had a 180 wRC+ against lefties which is elite level. Cabrera is my top first base option in both cash games and tournaments.
Brandon Moss FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - MIL (Jungmann) Park - @STL
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.23
Brandon Moss was in the picks article yesterday and delivered with a bomb. Here he is once again and will now be facing off against another average righty in Taylor Jungmann. Moss is a pure power hitter and that bodes extremely well against a pitcher like Jungmann. Jungmann gave up a .317 wOBA to lefties last year and struggled against good low ball hitters. I expect Moss to hit cleanup once again and will have some great RBI opportunities.
Consider: John Jaso, who's a great play on DraftKings in particular.
SECOND BASE
Robinson Cano FD 3800 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @SEA
FD - 12.91 DK - 10.31
Robinson Cano has been on fire to start the season and I expect him to hold up this level of production throughout the entire season. This is an ideal match-up for Cano as he will be facing off with Colby Lewis. Colby lewis is an awful pitcher and is someone we will be targeting all year. Lewis gave up a .324 wOBA and 13 homers to southpaws last year. Cano has a career long 136 wRC+ against righties. As I mentioned, this is just a perfect match-up for Cano and I will have him in all of my cash games and most tournament lineups.
Brian Dozier FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.05 DK - 7.94
Brian Dozier is a hitter who is above average against both righties and lefties. I like to target Dozier when the rest of the Twins lineup is in a good spot and he will have opportunities to get RBI's and runs. The Twins are in a good spot against a lefty that struggles against righties. Jose Quintana sported a .320 wOBA to righties last season and has shown no sign of improvement. I prefer Dozier in tournaments as he has good home run upside as well as a low floor.
Consider: Daniel Murphy
SHORTSTOP
Carlos Correa FD 4800 DK 4900
Opponent - KC (Young) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.8 DK - 9.36
Carlos Correa is another player who has been on fire to start the season and will likely stay hot for about 10 more years. Chris Young is a pitcher who has outperformed his true talent for the past 2 years and should certainly slow down this year. Correa is in a great ballpark in Houston with the short porch in left field. Correa is in a great spot here if you are able to pay up. Chris Young has been average against right handed hitters evidenced by his career .295 wOBA.
Jose Iglesias FD 2300 DK 3300
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @DET
FD - 8.2 DK - 6.72
Here is another Detroit Tigers hitter. You can play all of them and am not going to keep going over why they are great plays. Jon Niese struggles against right handed hitters and the Tigers lineup destroys left handed pitching. This is a recipe for success. Jose Iglesias held a 146 wRC+ to lefties last year.
Consider: Ketel Marte
THIRD BASE
Matt Carpenter FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - MIL (Jungmann) Park - @STL
FD - 10.92 DK - 8.6
Matt Carpenter is another Cardinals lefty against Taylor Jungmann. As mentioned above, Jungmann has struggled against lefties and Matt Carpenter has destroyed righties for the past 3 years. Matt Carpenter has exhibited a 154 wRC+ against righties in 2015. Jungmann is going to struggle against this lineup and Carpenter will be right in the middle of everything.
Kyle Seager FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Lewis) Park - @SEA
FD - 13.23 DK - 10.48
Kyle Seager is a player I typically roster a lot and that is due to his great spot in the lineup and his great splits against righties. Seager had a 107 wRC+ against righties last ear but also hit 13 homers against them. Colby Lewis is the type of pitcher I like to target lefties against as he will pt some runners on base and then give up a base clearing homer. I am loving the Mariners stack today as I expect them to obliterate Colby Lewis.
Consider: Anthony Rendon
OUTFIELD
J.D. Martinez FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @DET
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.73
Justin Upton FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @DET
FD - 12.14 DK - 9.54
Not too much to say here. I have said it about 800 times but I will say it again. Jon Niese is horrible against righties and the entire Tigers lineup smashes lefties. Upton and Martinez owned a 134 and 135 wRC+ against left handed pitchers last season. Both of these guys are quality plays in both cash games and tournaments.
Bryce Harper FD 5200 DK 4900
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @WSH
FD - 15.88 DK - 12.39
Bryce Harper is likely going to be my most rostered player this year and I don't see any way around it. He absolutely destroys right handed pitching and has as much upside as anyone in the league. Harper exhibited an amazing 209 wRC+ against right handed pitchers last year, the highest in the majors. Harper is only moving closer to his prime and we can only expect improvement. Bud Norris is as bad as they get and Harper will have no problem getting some healthy swings off against him. Norris sported a .379 wObA to righties last ear, which is absurdly bad.
Miguel Sano FD 3100 DK 4100
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.99
Sano has yet to hit a homer this year and I expect that to change today. Sano is an elite power hitter and will likely hit over 30 this season. Sano hit lefties to a 145 wRC+ last season and will likely improve on that during his sophomore season. As mentioned earlier, Quintana struggles against righties and has a tendency to give up home runs.
Consider: Colby Rasmus, Josh Reddick, Yoenis Cespedes
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image sources
- J.D. Martinez, Chris Gimenez: (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
35 Visitor Comments
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Pretty sure Verlander is scheduled to pitch for Detroit tomorronot greene.
This whole article is jacked up rn. None of the pricings are right for DK
Thanks, Zac – something got screwed up on the data import (these player profiles are automatic, not hand-made). Will investigate and get it fixed. Thanks!
Ya Cashner would be a nice pick at 6700 but he’s 8700. It happens. He’s the biggest differential in salary. The others are only minor. I don’t think he’s in play at 8700$ . And scherzer for that price? Wowzers
I still like Cashner at that price in tourneys. He has shown some crazy upside in the past and there are not too many great options today.
Thank you DFSR team! $$$$$$$BOOM$$$$$$ FD $1 MLB Bunt 1st place $400
Don’t be stealin my “$$$BOOM$$$!” ha nice job!
Surprised no mention of Stephen Matz for tonight. Your thoughts of Matz as an option for tonight?
I honestly find it tough to roster lefties vs the Marlins. They have a lot of landmines in that lineup that can ruin a start in 1 swing. I do not mind Matz in tourneys.
missing the mets game on optimzer we have 11 games today
Optimizer is missing David Price. Thanks.
Hey everyone. Working on data issues now. Should have corrected soon.
Issue appears resolved.
Does that change any of your projections with the proce fixes?
Projections don’t change at all. These prices were correct last night when we wrote picks. Then something reverted overnight that I’m investigating. Short answer: no. No changes.
How did u take first place ? Did u run the optimizer and pick and choose who u like ? Im curious how some of u guys are hitting so big now
Hey Dan,
The optimizer picks the best pp$ plays. This is the statistical/logical pick and is on point MOST time. Then you have your sleepers… So, if I run today’s optimizer I get a sweet line up, but i have a hunch on a player that isn’t statistically the best play. (variables could be a birthday, a certain park, match up.. hell if someone just had a family loss.) Therefore I will plug my guy into that spot. If he hits, $$$BOOM$$$ my numbers go up over the optimal. The optimal is mostly safe but I’ve learned to go with your gut too and incorporate that into your lineup. then there is player stacking and that’s a whole other story! Hope this makes sense.
Optimizer isn’t showing Starling Marte.
With the wind being sustained 20mph for the Boston vs Baltimore game I don’t feel comforatble putting Price in. I did an early game all day lineup which is a shot in the dark anyways let me know what ya think.
P- Scherzer
C Swihart
1B Zimmerman
2B C. Hernandez
3B M. Franco
SS Iglesias
OF Joyce ( he is a 1.186 OPS hitter against verlander but with 6 strikeouts and hes batting 3rd today)
OF Sano
OF Harper
Hey Sonawhobary, what point total did you put up?
Was also going to comment on Joyce . 2200 batting 3rd is pretty nice
Now the best you can do is split a winner cause you know someone will use your exact lineup!!
Sharing is caring Ryan lol I don’t play fan fuel tho ?
Good morning…can someone either explain (or tell me where to find) how the key on the optimizer page works for baseball? The color of the diamond, the arrow, the color bar…thanks.
Check out the videos. They explain how the system works.
Oh it’s stolen Cory. I hit 213fps with Ross, Montero, Moss, Spangenberg, Carpenter, K.Marte, Harper, CGonzalez and Bautista
haha! nice! Wait til you start to see commas in those wins, then you’ll be BOOMIN!
How did u make The lineup sonawhobury? Did u use optimizer ? And screw w it
lol there is alot of downside to that lineup also. I threw it in a small 50 person all day league to try it out as I don’t trust it. Figured it’s worth a shot.
i didn’t use the optimizer, most of my picks were in the write up yesterday. If I hit a comma, I’m gonna be $BOOMIN$ so hard
Thanks for the reply Cory
If anyone else has any questions, feel free to throw them out there!
did an early slate line up with cashner and price…went Det and SD strong, with Matt Holliday as my only other hitter out of those games… just concerned about high ownership….COME ON NO HITTER!!
The Tiger’s picks couldn’t have been more wrong haha. Regretting going with a couple of them. Should have just gone with my gut.
The Tigers all righty lineup against a soft-tossing lefty will be the way to go way, way more often than not. It happens. But they were chalk plays for a reason.