Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/10/16

 

There is nothing better than some classic Sunday baseball! Yesterday was a pretty tough day with most teams trotting out their 4th or 5th pitcher. Today is a completely different story as a ton of aces will be taking the mound today. Let's jump into it!

Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with MLB Optimal Lineups, Projections and Player Cards. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL as well! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!

 

PITCHER

Matt Harvey FD 10700 DK 11900
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @NYM
FD - 41.35 DK - 23.23

Harvey is coming off an opening day where he struggled mightily and couldn't locate his fastball throughout the start. I am not too concerned about last start due to the fact he was dealing with some minor soreness from an injury and that should be completely gone by now. This is an ideal situation for Harvey as he has pitcher better at home over the course of his career, sporting a .259 wOBA compared to a .276 wOBA on the road. The Phillies have arguably the worst lineup in the league and Harvey will have no problem shutting them down. You can expect Harvey to be pushed to around 100 pitches which will be plenty. Vegas has this game sitting at a 6 1/2 over/under with the Mets favored -260. This tells me that they expect Harvey to obliterate this offense en route to a win.

Joe Ross FD 6800 DK 7500
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @WSH
FD - 29.39 DK - 14.79

Joe Ross enters into the year with huge potential as he sported a 3.62 xFIP and 8.1 K/9 in his rookie year. This game has a 8 over/under but with the Nationals -156, the Marlins only have a team total around 3.5. Nationals Park is a very average park for pitchers and is better for right handed pitchers than left. If Ross is able to get around Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton, he will be able to coast through the rest of the lineup. There is plenty of strikeout upside with the Marlins as Justin Bour, Stanton and Marcell Ozuna all have a strikeout % over 22. The Nationals are expected to easily win this game which gives some more safety to Ross

Edinson Volquez FD 8100 DK 7300
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @KC
FD - 30.44 DK - 15.31

I never thought I would be recommending Edinson Volquez as a play, but here we are. Volquez has completely remodeled his game from 2014 where he struggled against both sides of the plate evidenced by his 4.20 xFIP. Volquez has increased his velocity by 3-4 MPH this year and is therefore getting more movement on his secondary pitches. Volquez runs into a great match-up here with the Twins who have been struggling to hit this first week. When Joe Mauer is hitting 3rd, you know there is a serious problem. With an over/under of 8 and the Royals being heavily favored, Vegas is on board here with an expectation of about 3 runs for the Twins.

CATCHER

Travis D'Arnaud FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.75 DK - 7.71

D'Arnaud has started of slow with only 2 hits thus far. He will look to turn that around today with a prime match-up against Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson gave up a .330 wOBA and 14 homers to righties in 2015. You will not find too many pitchers that get a second chance after numbers like that and I am not too sure why Hellickson is. D'Arnaud will be right in the middle of the lineup and will have plenty of RBI and run opportunities.

Miguel Montero FD 2600 DK 3300
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.22 DK - 7.26

Miguel Montero is one of my favorite catchers to roster as he is a cheap way to get exposure to the Cubs lethal lineup. It is very rare to see Montero go through a whole game and not see some guys in scoring position with the opportunity to drive in. Shelby Miller gave up a .315 wOBA to lefties last season and his peripherals suggest he will regress closer to a .330 this year. Chase Field is only going to help get the ball out of the park as it is the 2nd best park in the league for left handed power. Get some exposure against Miller while the average fan still thinks he is a good pitcher.

Also Consider: Jason Castro

 

FIRST BASE

John Jaso FD 2600 DK 3500
Opponent - CIN (DeSclafani) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.33 DK - 9.69

The price on Jaso is just too good here and will only go up around the industry from here on out. Jaso has been hitting at the top of a lineup and is followed by Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte. Jump on Jaso while he is still priced like an average catcher. He will be facing off with Anthony DeSclafani in a great hitters ballpark, a recipe for success. DeSclafani struggles severe;y vs lefties as shown by his .338 wOBA last year. Jaso is a righty masher as he holds a 137 wRC+ against them over the course of his career.

Brandon Moss FD 2600 DK 3500
Opponent - ATL (Perez) Park - @ATL
FD - 14.29 DK - 11.18

Brandon Moss finally got some respect from Matheny last night and hit cleanup for the first time. The offense had a big night which will likely lead to Matheny keeping the order the same. Williams Perez is a below average pitcher that has trouble with power southpaws. Brandon Moss is exactly that and should be able to take advantage. Perez gave up an atrocious .374 wOBA to lefties last year and his peripherals do not suggest any improvement. Plug Moss in there with confidence that he will get some pitches to hit.

Also Consider: Logan Morrison

 

SECOND BASE

Ben Zobrist FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - ARI (Miller) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.16 DK - 8.03

Zobrist was a terrific add for the Cubs this offseason and is going to play a very important role if they are going to go for the World Series. Zobrist is a switch hitter who is better against righties. Zobrist sported a 117 wRC+ last year against right handed pitchers. As mentioned above, Shelby Miller has outperformed his true skill and will come back to Earth this year. Chase Field is a bandbox which only helps the case for Zobrist.

Cory Spangenberg FD 3100 DK 3500
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 10.16 DK - 8.28

As I am writing this, Spangenberg just hit another homer. Coors Field is a magical place and can make average hitters into superstars. Chad Bettis is a horrible pitcher who has been bad against both righties and lefties. Bettis sported a combined .335 wOBA last year and has showed no signs of improvement. You can target the Padres lefties with confidence in a game with an over/under over 10.

Also Consider: Neil Walker
 

SHORTSTOP

Brad Miller FD 2200 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Worley) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.14 DK - 8.86

Brad Miller is going to be a strong play day in and day out until his price comes up around the industry. Miller is matching up with Vance Worley in this one which should end up well for Miller. Worley gave up a .346 wOBA to lefties in 2015, which is absolutely atrocious. Camden Yards is a ballpark that is going to magnify Worley's struggles and Miller should be able to take advantage of the multiple factors in his favor.

Ketel Marte FD 2500 DK 3800
Opponent - OAK (Bassitt) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.21 DK - 8.38

Ketel Marte is a player I am going to be rostering a ton this year as he can score in so many different ways. Marte has a cheap price around the industry and is a great match-up. Chris Bassitt is an average pitcher who struggles against lefties and struggles to hold runners. Bassitt had a 4.98 xFIP to lefties last season which is very poor. If Marte is able to get on base, he will have a very good change of getting a stolen base and exceeding value.

 

THIRD BASE

Matt Carpenter FD 3200 DK 4400
Opponent - ATL (Perez) Park - @ATL
FD - 14.79 DK - 11.64

Matt Carpenter hit 28 homers last year and while we can't expect that again, it shows how much upside he has is so many different facets of the game. As mentioned above, Williams Perez struggles mightily against lefties and Carpenter has a very good history against righties. Carpenter held a 157 wRC+ against righties last season. The cardinals lineup has been on fire lately which only makes me feel safer as there is a better chance he will be knocked in once he gets on base.

Mike Moustakas FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @KC
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.4

Mike Moustakas is a righty killer and is always in the heart of the lethal Royals lineup. Ricky Nolasco used to be a pitcher to avoid but at this point in his career he has fallen quite hard. Nolasco gave up a .400 wOBA to lefties over the past 2 seasons which is as bad as it gets. Moustakas will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs and be driven in.

Also Consider: Luis Valbuena

 

OUTFIELD

Melvin Upton FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 12.01 DK - 9.57
Jon Jay FD 3200 DK 3400
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @COL
FD - 11.53 DK - 9.3

The Padres outfielders are all in great spots today and these 2 are my favorite. The prices are not quite high enough to compensate for Coors Field and we need to take advantage of that. Both Melvin Upton and Jon Jay are plays that have HR and stolen base upside, especially in Coors. Chad Bettis is a pitiful pitcher against lefties, righties and also struggles to hold runners on base. Both of these guys are great options to get exposure to Coors Field.

Corey Dickerson FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - BAL (Worley) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.81 DK - 10.18

Corey Dickerson is going to have a huge year in Tampa Bay and it has already started with 2 early season home runs. As mentioned above a few times, Vance Worley is an absurdly bad pitcher against left handed hitters as evidenced by his near .400 wOBA. Dickerson is a hitter that has a huge power punch but can also hit for a very good average. I expect Dickerson to be in some good spots during this game and should be able to get some cheap RBI's at the very least. Dickerson is a great cash game and tournament play.

Also Consider: Matt Holliday, Billy Hamilton

So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!

GET OUR FREE EBOOK ON DAILY FANTASY MLB!

And Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings every day!