Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/7/16

You guessed it… Short Slate Thursday! Just five games, but four have meaningful playoff implications, and seven of the eight teams involved have either seeding or qualification on the line. Only one game is projected as a blowout (10+ point favorite), and there are a couple of really nice Over/Under (O/U) opportunities. It’s all capped by the Dubs-Spurs tilt, though that one’s clouded for DFS purposes by the ever-present Pop Factor.

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POINT GUARD

Ronnie Price - FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 19.45 DK Proj. Pts - 20.05
I usually prefer not to lead with a very-low-cost option, but Price is easily the play of the night at the point on a point-per-dollar (Pts/$) basis. He threw up a terrible 2-times-Pts/$1000 (2x) multiple two games ago. That was in the midst of 9x, 8x, 5x, 8x, 9x string. Hard not to like that. Houston is playing for its’ playoff life, but are bottom-3rd in the league in defense versus position (DvP) on point guards, and both teams are in the top 7 in the NBA in terms of Pace. While Price’s price has come up significantly, he’s still a near-punt and been playing over 30 minutes per the last few games. There’s a lot to like here, and with ample opportunities to spend up elsewhere, the DFSR system projects him as a virtual must-play on FanDuel (FD) and DraftKings (DK). I’d say that applies to both cash and tourney formats.

Ricky Rubio - FD 6700 DK 6800
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 32.45 DK Proj. Pts - 33.4
The next-best PG option on FD and a solid one on DK, Rubio is an average-salary play in a terrific matchup. Neither team has had much to play for (except lottery position) for a long time. They’re still going out and running hard, and the Kings lead the league in Pace. Minnesota plays at a slightly surprising (to me) 20th Pace factor, but the 220+ O/U suggests defense is going to be semi-optional in this one. Positionally, it’s hard to get better – the Sacramento is 29th in DvP on the PG position. The floor’s a little low (his game log will quickly highlight this), but the ceiling is nice. Given the opponent, this remains a solid direction to run, especially on FD, and the floor/ceiling situation has me leaning towards tourney formats on DK.

Stephen Curry - FD 10500 DK 10200
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 49.29 DK Proj. Pts - 53.13
There are ample opportunities to save on Thursday and only a few elite ($10k+) options. On DK, Steph is the Pts/$ choice of the night among them. You know the Warriors will be motivated by the remaining opportunity to break the record record (spell check didn’t like that much), and who knows will be out there for the Spurs. San Antonio will play solid defense in any event, but Curry’s terrible outing last time against them was in stark contrast to the teams’ initial meeting, where he scorched them for 37 (with everyone but Duncan taking the floor). At the time they played last month, the Spurs were truly playing for something. While still technically true, functionally the Spurs are locked into the second seed. This is where you spend some money on DK, though Curry’s a less attractive play on FD with a slightly higher price and no bonus for 3PM.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 10900 DK 11100
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 53.95 DK Proj. Pts - 57.13
Where Steph Curry is the top elite Pts/$ option on DK, Harden is pretty close, and clearly the better alternative on FD. He’s also the best non-flier option of the night at SG on Thursday. I’m not going to get bogged down with details on matchup, as the Rockets are opposed (if you can all it that) by Phoenix (read: lots of scoring and bad defense). As previously mentioned, Houston is also playing for their playoff lives, so they’re likely to run Harden ragged if necessary. Finally, the floor/ceiling scenario is extremely favorable, making this a plug-and-play on both sites, all formats.

Zach LaVine - FD 5400 DK 5700
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 25.69 DK Proj. Pts - 26.88
On FD, you need to fill two SG slots. The DFSR projections indicate this LaVine is the best SG alternative after Harden. I’ve already touched on the matchup (Sacramento is actually worse defending the 2 than the 1). The choice to play LaVine comes down to site and format. For FD cash Harden/LaVine is chalk, while there are a host of better SG options on DK and LaVine is best reserved for a tourney pivot play.
Jimmy Butler - FD 8500 DK 7500
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 39.13 DK Proj. Pts - 40.49
JGB has a tough matchup with the Heat on Thursday. They’re slow and defend SGs very well (5th in DvP). Both teams have something at stake, so the game’s likely to be hotly contested. Then there’s the fact that Butler is coming off a horrid outing against the Grizz. Still, it’s actually not all bad news. He was coming off an incredible few games, and his price has ticked down on DK. A lot of owners may feel burned and fade him, but I like the value here, especially at the huge relative discount on DK. He’s not far off LaVine on FD in Pts/$ terms, where Butler is a viable alternative for roster diversification. A pricey but not elite option, you should have salary space for him in your lineups. Please be aware that there are rumors of injury, but nothing official, so I’d check back close to lineup lock out of an abundance of caution.

SMALL FORWARD

Trevor Ariza - FD 5600 DK 5500
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 28.13 DK Proj. Pts - 31.47
And with another pick comes another opportunity to become vested in the HOU/PHO matchup. Ariza is the top Pts/$ option at small forward on FD, and nearly so on DK. The Suns’ interior defense is actually good, so the run of Rockets recommendations (sorry for the alliteration) is coming to a close. Ariza is a pure wing player so won’t be overly challenged defensively. Coming off a few good outings, his price has risen nearly 15% in the last 10 days, but even at this salary he’d have been producing up 5x and 6x multiples. Given all the circumstances, there’s little reason to think that stops here. With a high floor/ceiling combination, he can be safely deployed on both sites, all formats.

Harrison Barnes - FD 4800 DK 4300
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 23.64 DK Proj. Pts - 25.08
This position is not the place to spend on Thursday. Barnes is one three reasonably priced and somewhat comparable SF options. Where Ariza is the clearPts/$ option on FD, Harrison has the honor on DK, thanks to his lower salary and the more favorable scoring system. The matchup is covered above, and pretty much all of the relevant factors remain the same. Playing Barnes is a matter of site, preference, and roster construction. Ariza/Barnes is the top combo on FD, and Barnes actually has a slightly better Pts/$ projection on DK. With a solid floor and plenty of upside, you won’t be making a mistake if you run him on Thursday.

P.J. Tucker - FD 5200 DK 4700
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 25.32 DK Proj. Pts - 27.2
And the third option is… another Sun. While a touch pricier, Tucker has a different, better matchup than Barnes. The Rockets play fast and don’t even pretend to guard small forwards (dead last in DvP). The two players are nearly identical in terms of projection, multiple, floor and ceiling. Other owners may stay away after a 0-for-8-driven letdown on Tuesday. Don’t let that scare you off. Prior to that, he put up a 5x, 6x, and 10x. If the salary fit is better with Tucker, you can run him out with just as much confidence. Really, any combination of Ariza/Barnes/Tucker is rock-solid. You can suit your taste if you’re running a single lineup, and comfortably diversify if running multiple.

POWER FORWARD

Willie Cauley-Stein - FD 5000 DK 4900
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 26.77 DK Proj. Pts - 27.21
Alex Len - FD 5700 DK 5600
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 28.32 DK Proj. Pts - 28.81
I’m presenting these guys together because both are listed at power forward on FD and center on DK. The positional flexibility there makes this a minor issue, but you will need a PF on DK.

WCS is the top Pts/$ power forward alternative on FD for the Thursday slate, and nearly so on DK. He remained in the starting lineup even with Boogie back, and there’s not of any indication that a change is planned. The matchup is a bit mixed. The T-Wolves play at a below-average Pace, and are either terrible (28th on power forwards) or great (4th against Centers) in terms of DvP. I wouldn’t be overly concerned here, as Boogie will attract much of the attention. The main concern here is minutes. The Kings sat a bunch of guys last time out, so the rotation may fluctuate a bit. The DFSR projections call for him to stay in the mid-30 range, and if that’s the case, he’s hard to pass up.

Len is pricier than WCS and a quick glance at his game log will show why he has a significantly lower floor. Still, he comes in as the 2nd-best PF on FD on a Pts/$ basis. You can look to Pace as the driving factor there. The DvP splits are similar, if less dramatic. He is a very nice choice on FD, though there are better Center options on DK.

Mirza Teletovic - FD 5100 DK 5000
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 25 DK Proj. Pts - 28.2
In a twist on the previous picks, Teletovic is listed at small forward on DK. I’ve covered the matchup ad nauseam, but it’s worth noting that the Rockets’ SF DvP is terrible, meaning the matchup is better for Teletovic than Len. They do have some other differences. Teletovic is cheaper than Len, and also steadier, as his floor has been very strong since an uptick in minutes a few weeks ago. In that timeframe he has seen a minimum of 26 minutes, with more the last couple games. Pegged at a middle-of-the-road 30 for Thursday, I think he’s unlikely to put up a 9x similar to last week’s, but if he went much below 5x I’d be surprised. He’s right up there with WCS and Len on as a power forward option on FD, and comparable to the other small forward picks on DK.

Having failed to list anyone who actually qualifies for PF on DraftKings, look at the section below. I’ll suggest Draymond Green as another viable high-end option, and more cautiously tell you to keep an eye on Boris Diaw as a Pop-dependent true punt play.

CENTER

Tyson Chandler - FD 5400 DK 5000
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 29.47 DK Proj. Pts - 30.13
Yes, I’m following up a Len recommendation with Chandler. In fact, the Rockets are above-average (12th) in DvP on centers, compared to a rather poor ranking (24th) against power forwards. If I have to guess who’s likely to get more defensive attention, I’m going with Len, making Chandler’s matchup a bit better than the DvP might suggest. Much of that may be beside the point, however, given his monster minutes and production the last five games. If he continues to see mid-to-hgih-30s run, he’s far and away the top positional option on FD, and the only truly solid option in the Pts/$ tier on DK (where he’s significantly better than WCS).

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10700 DK 10500
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 52.05 DK Proj. Pts - 52.64
In a reversal, Cousins is a Center on FD and a PF on DK (problem solved!). He came back from a two-game absence with no drop in production on Tuesday. The primary thing that keeps a ceiling on Boogie is Boogie. His floor is rock-solid and more than acceptable as an elite option, so if you spend your money here, even a relatively bad outing will still be quite good in terms of raw production. You’ll easily be able to pair him with Harden or Curry, and might squeeze in all three if you punt at several other positions. I am considering just that on DK, especially for tourneys.

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