Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/06/16

There’s a solid eight-game slate on tap for Wednesday. The primary issues for these games are common this time of year – who’s healthy and who’s got something to play for? Two games are ambiguous enough to have no line, and of the remaining six, four are expected to be romps (+12 spread or higher). There are no high O/U opportunities as of yet either. Still, the games will be played, shots will be taken (and missed), and so forth. All of which means we get to have DFS contests! Most of the top projected plays are lesser-known names, late season additions, etc., and you’ll find they all come relatively cheap. I’ll point out a higher-cost option at each position where you can spend some money (and you’ll need to), though they’re all lower on a point-per-dollar (PP$) basis. Happy hunting.

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POINT GUARD

Tim Frazier - FD 5000 DK 4600
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 29.08 DK Proj. Pts - 30.3

Frazier has been getting consistent run, producing consistently in the process. Tuesday was no exception, and I see no reason for Wednesday to be any different. Even with a 10% price bump, his salary is simply not proportionate to his value. He is a Pel, and there’s game-related blowout risk, but someone’s going to be manning the point. That'll be Frazier on Wednesday. As the top PP$ option at point guard on FanDuel (FD) and DraftKings (DK), he’s likely to be heavily owned, but he’s also pretty hard to pass up, especially for cash games.

Shane Larkin - FD 4500 DK 4300
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 25.05 DK Proj. Pts - 26.37

Much like his counterpart on the Pelicans, Shane Larkin plays for a lousy team that’s likely to get blown out. Fortunately for DFS owners, he plays a lot for a lousy team that’s likely to get blown out. As of this writing, the Wizards may technically be playing for something (other than an improved lottery pick), so the game should be contested well into the second half. At his current price, he’s got a world-is-ending-scenario four-times-points-per- $1000 (4x) floor and an invisible ceiling. Larkin’s projected positional multiple is second only to Frazier on DK. He’s the 2nd-best non-punt play on FD, where you can legitimately stay cheap at both PG slots and spend elsewhere if you like.

Jerian Grant - FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 20.92 DK Proj. Pts - 21.74
Grant is a punt play at point guard on Wednesday, as long as Jose Calderon remains out (towards which all signs point). He stunk up the joint in his second start on Sunday, and still managed over 4x production. If he hits even 40% of his shots, he could easily pop for 6x or more. I like him a lot as a tourney option.

For spenders at the position, Damian Lillard is a top higher-end option on FD at $8000, and the DFSR system also likes him to produce in the 5x range on DK at a pricier $8700.

 

SHOOTING GUARD

Courtney Lee - FD 4300 DK 4000
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 23.76 DK Proj. Pts - 25.26

Jeremy Lin - FD 4200 DK 4100
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 22.29 DK Proj. Pts - 23.33
These two guys have very similar projections for Wednesday. They both come with the caveat that Nic Batum remains sidelined. In that scenario, both Lee and Lin are in for big minutes, and corresponding production. Charlotte is jockeying for playoff position, while the Knicks stand to lose by winning (not particularly likely in any event). Lee is very much the steadier of the two, with Lin carrying a low floor but higher ceiling. Note that Lin is a PG on DK, where he makes a nice tourney pivot for Frazier.

Kobe Bryant - FD 5400 DK 4600
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 28.94 DK Proj. Pts - 30.3
In the event that he takes the court (and remains on it), Kobe's price has fallen low enough that he's a viable value play, particularly on DK. He might miss lots of shots, but if he takes them, at this salary level he’s still likely to generate enough production to make him a worthwhile investment. The clock has not quite expired and the Lakers are solidly locked into the second lottery position. I think there’s a decent chance he plays on Thursday, despite it being the back end of a home-and-home (and home) Staples matchup. If he does, keep him on hold as a late lineup possibility. I shouldn’t need to emphasize that this is a tourney-only recommendation, but I just did anyway.

The big-money alternative at shooting guard is James Harden, who costs a great deal, but has a great deal to play for.

Baseball season is almost here. Check back soon for our MLB ebook on setting daily fantasy baseball lineups as well as our MLB DFS strategy articles coming in the next couple weeks.

 

SMALL FORWARD

Luke Babbitt - FD 5000 DK 4700
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 23.17 DK Proj. Pts - 26.07
Speaking of lots of minutes and lots of shots … Babbit jacked up 16 on Tuesday, following 15 and 25-shot outings. That’s volume shooting, folks. His FG% for the season is abysmal, but he has been shooting better of late. If he keeps getting attempts well into double-digits, it’s hard not to like both his floor and his ceiling. Yet another Pelican, he comes with the usual red flags, but Luke is a tremendous play on DK, where his price is lower and he’s rewarded for hitting from long range. You could do worse on FD as well.
Jordan Hamilton - FD 4600 DK 4200
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 24.57 DK Proj. Pts - 25.68

Another pick, another Pelican. With Omer Asik a DNP-CD on Tuesday, the team is down to an eight-man rotation. Hamilton’s minutes and shots tailed off a bit, but he still nearly posted a 6x. While he is looking at an overnight salary increase, his price point suggests a very nice 5x floor. If his minutes get back in the 30’s, a substantially higher multiple is in play. I like his chances for minutes and attendant fantasy production. The DFSR system likes him as the top PP$ option at SF on Wednesday. You should like him too.

Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5400 DK 5000
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.26 DK Proj. Pts - 28.3
The Blazers are still jockeying for playoff position, while the Thunder are set. Both are playing Wednesday on the second night of back-to-backs, and both are flying late. Given the motivation, Advantage: Portland. With that as a backdrop, Al-Farouq Aminu has seen his minutes wax and wane lately, from 20 a couple of weeks ago, to 36 the last time out. As you’d expect, his output has fluctuated with his opportunities. However, even in the outings where he has seen limited court time, a solid 5x floor has emerged. As evidenced by his near 12x last week, he also brings enormous upside if he gets touches. The situation suggests lots of minutes, fueling his DFSR projection as the top PP$ play at the position.

Those wishing to spend up at SF should think PG-13, and on DK he’s comes with a very high floor, making him perhaps the safest higher-end play of the night

 

POWER FORWARD

Derrick Williams - FD 3700 DK 4300
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.51 DK Proj. Pts - 24.83
The “other” D-Will is the top power forward option on Wednesday. That assumes, of course, that the Unicorn remains out to pasture. Whenever he sees regular rotation minutes, he has been good for a 6x. His salary has gone up nearly 30% over his week as a starter, but he remains priced to move. At $3700 on FD he needs to be in your lineup. I suspect he will also be the most highly owned PF on DK, despite the much steeper investment required. Game theory strongly suggests that you’ll be at a significant disadvantage if you don’t roll with him in cash games. On FD, he needs to be in tourney lineups as well.

Markieff Morris - FD 5500 DK 5300
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 29.63 DK Proj. Pts - 30.73
He's volatile, but he’s good! Markieff dealt with a calf issue for a couple of games and his minutes took a hit. That seems to be in the rearview, as he has seen his court time go ballistic the last week. If you like your 7x and 9x outings with a sound 5x floor, this is your guy. As mentioned, Washington is still theoretically in the playoff hunt, and I think his minutes are pretty safe unless and until that’s no longer the case. He’s actually carrying a higher PP$ projection than Williams on DK thanks to the pricing disparity. Morris provides value and upside suitable for all formats on all sites. The pairing with Williams on FD is highly advisable.

Julius Randle - FD 6600 DK 5900
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 32.65 DK Proj. Pts - 33.37
Julius Randle looks like he’s finally figuring it out. He has the potential to sink you, but lately, on a given night, he’s much more likely to put up a strong stat line. He is not quite in the same league as Williams and Morris on a PP$ basis (the former is the chalk play and the latter likely to be highly owned as well). On DK, however, Randle comes at a 10% discount relative to FD. That price is low enough that it I’ll find it hard not to use him in tourney lineups, where he may be just the right pivot play, providing the diversification needed to cash.

The closest thing to a high-cost option at PF on Wednesday is Dirk Nowitzki, telling you all you need to know about where not to spend your money.

 

CENTER

Alexis Ajinca - FD 4300 DK 4100
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 26.71 DK Proj. Pts - 27.15
Coming off a nice 6x, Ajinca is likely to be on lots radars. His price goes up a touch for Wednesday, but with Asik not even stepping on the floor on Tuesday it’s hard to see a floor much below 5x. The DFSR projection (remember, it's an _average_) is above 6x on FD, and closer to 7x on DK. Another very chalky selection, there are some contrarian options, but resist the temptation and make sure he’s in your cash lineups. I’ll personally consider other candidates before passing in tournament lineups as well.

Henry Sims - FD 4000 DK 3500
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 23.6 DK Proj. Pts - 24.29
No longer a true punt, Sims is your temptation. The Nets are closing up shop, and have indicated that Brook Lopez has completed his season. After posting an 8x in his first start, I don’t see much of a drop in PP$ terms despite the $500 salary bump. The Wizards’ have a tough interior D, but Sims will be on the court, and someone has to rebound (right?). If you really want to invest elsewhere, for tournaments give him strong consideration.

If you’re intent on spending at Center, Andre Drummond is really your only viable alternative.

 

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