Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/6/16 - Evening Slate

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PITCHER

Kenta Maeda FD 7200 DK 9200
Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @SD
FD - 33.47 DK - 17.92
Well here's your flyer of the day but based on the price, I think you can take the risk. Oof, here we go. He's somewhat of an unknown in that he's coming over from Japan. But early season projections like him to be better than a league average pitcher with solid peripherals. He gets a nice place to start in Petco Park in a game that that has the lowest projected total on the slate. I wouldn't blame you for taking the wait and see approach on the dude considering well, we should probably wait and see. But I'm going to go with the system here considering some of the contextual factors.

Stephen Strasburg FD 11300 DK 11200
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @ATL
FD - 38.09 DK - 20.98
Stras! If you've been around the MLB DFS landscape long enough you probably have a love/hate (more emphasis on the hate most likely) relationship with the dude. And I get why. He's cost us as much money as he's won us or at least it feels that way. When it was all said and done last year his numbers look pretty damn good. He struck out close to 11 per nine, walked only 1.84 and had a 2.69 xFIP (about .75 runs below the ERA). One thing with xFIP is it's fielder-independent and the Nats had a bad defense last year. They are slightly improved, but not a ton. Regardless, Stras enters this game as by far the biggest ML favorite at -184 and I'm rolling him cash games. I might get flamed in the comments and I get why, but the numbers point to him being an almost must play.

Sonny Gray FD 10400 DK 9600
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @OAK
FD - 34.75 DK - 18.31
We'll assume his tummy's feeling better and dude's good to go for Wednesday. Rather than put in the extra work, here's what I said about him on Monday.
"I think our system likes the guy a bit more than I do, but we can grab him more on the price point than anything else. He's got to face Sale on the bump which means the win expectancy isn't quite where we want it to be, but he is a slight favorite. The White Sox finished dead last in the league hitting against righties last season and not much about their squad's changed in the off season that would make them markedly better against this hand. (Yes Todd Frazier is an improvement in some respects, but not in platoon splits). Gray is a fine enough pitcher who I like grabbing cheaper than the big boys."

CATCHER

Brian McCann FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - HOU (McHugh) Park - @NYY
FD - 7.02 DK - 5.49
This evening slate is a tough nut to crack. I'm not loving much about it considering there are just a ton of medium arms on it. That's bad news in both the pitching and hitting realms in that everyone just falls squarely in the middle. McCann rates here because he hits in the middle of the lineup and is rolling in one of the better hitter's parks in baseball for lefty bats. Coming cheap even with the matchup against McHugh.

Matt Wieters FD 2700 DK 3500
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @BAL
FD - 5.87 DK - 4.63
Speaking of good ballparks, Wieters gets to go in Camden; a fantastic place to play everyday if you like hitting dongs. Matty W. is well passed the unrealistic expectations of PECOTA that had him as the second coming of Babe Ruth if Babe as a catcher. Now we're just firmly in the "he's a decent everyday catcher dude" territory. Good for him. I don't mind the prices here if he's going in the middle of the order.

FIRST BASE

Chris Davis FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.29 DK - 10.26
Our system's going to have a real hard time getting past Crush tonight for a couple of key reasons. First off, he's going in a fantastic park for lefties where that hand really plays up in power. Plus, Davis' key weakness is the K, something he likes to do early and often. So when we can get him against a pitcher like Gibson who K's less than seven batters per nine the algo sits up and takes notice. I know Gibson is a heavy GB% guy which gives me some pause, but not a ton.

Joe Mauer FD 2500 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @BAL
FD - 9.02 DK - 7.15
You can look his way on FanDuel where he's coming near punt prices. Mauer is long since removed from the power days, but he still projects to get on base and that's almost good enough from the two hole at the FD price.

SECOND BASE

Daniel Murphy FD 3100 DK 4000
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.41 DK - 7.65
Bud Norris ran a little bad last year so we should take his whole ERA to heart when picking against him. That being said, bro wasn't exactly good either. He still put up an xFIP in the 4's and walked more than three an inning. Murphy is an incredibly difficult guy to strike out so I love targeting him against guys who can struggle with command. Norris is just that type of guy. D Murph also has the newfound advantage of hitting in and around Bryce Harper which has its distinct advantages.

Brian Dozier FD 3000 DK 4500
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @BAL
FD - 9.69 DK - 7.62
Where Murphy is the better play on DraftKings, I'll take Dozier over on FanDuel. He's better against lefties for sure, but fear not, Yovani Gallardo isn't good against anyone. Dozier hitting at the top of the order comes at a nice FD price point and has a distinct park advantage here.

Strongly consider Cory Spangenberg if he's hitting at the top of the order

SHORTSTOP

Marcus Semien FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - (Rodon) Park - @OAK
FD - 9 DK - 7.17
You're going to be hard-pressed to find any decent shortstop on this slate so taking someone cheap and moving on isn't the worst idea in the world. Semien was actually kind of great against lefties last season with an .879 OPS and .377 wOBA in that split. Rodon can dial up the K's, but dude also gets wild from time to time. I'll take my chances here considering Semien's costing next to nothing.

Elvis Andrus FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - SEA (Miley) Park - @TEX
FD - 7.42 DK - 6.02
In that "I'm cheap" vein, Andrus is cheap. See what I did there? He's better against lefties for his career and though he hits eighth in the lineup, you are kind of stuck at SS. What else is new? Even at these prices I don't think he's a great bargain considering he's buried in the nether-regions of the order. But the sites force you to play a shortstop so here you have it.

THIRD BASE

Manny Machado FD 4200 DK 4800
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.37 DK - 9.82
Here's what I wrote about Machado on Opening Day and it sticks for this one except it gets even better because the pitching opponent is even worse.
"Machado played all 162 last season and finished with a fantastic line, going yard 35 times, stealing 20 bases and raking an .850 OPS from the top of the order. He'll hit leadoff again this year and can really hit righties. Last season he had close to a .900 OPS in that split." Poetic huh? I don't get paid the medium bucks for nothing.

Anthony Rendon FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.95 DK - 7.12
Danny Valencia FD 2500 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @OAK
FD - 7.4 DK - 5.91
Our system likes both of these guys at this price point and it's tough to choose between them. Not to just throw out every guy and have you choose, that's a cop out. But Rendon and Valencia rate up near the top of the system though for different reasons. Rendon has a good matchup against Norris who struggles to strike guys out and will walk a bro here and there. Meanwhile, Valencia is so good against lefties that he negates some of Rodon's effectiveness. It's a close call between these two guys.

OUTFIELD

Bryce Harper FD 5200 DK 5000
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @ATL
FD - 15.46 DK - 12.01
We had the consummate MLB bro as the top play for Monday's slate and he delivered in the most bro way possible by smacking a dong on his first pitch of the season. Bryce isn't exactly a sneaky play or anything, but on this slate I'm going with him especially if we trust the system on Maeda because we can afford Bryce. I don't need to go into why he's like good or anything. He just is. We are only concerned with being priced out.

Adam Jones FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.55 DK - 8.43
Miguel Sano FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.33
Both are playing in Camden yards and have decent pitching matchups. Neither Gallardo nor Gibson are threats to blow away opposing hitters which leaves a lot of room for contact from both teams. I'd prefer both Jones and Sano against a lefty, but we take what we can get on this slate. And here I'm looking at the decreased expectation on the K and the fantastic hitter's park in Camden Yards. Both are coming well within the lower tier on FanDuel, leaving a lot of room for upside.

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