Jordan Spieth of the United States plays a shot on the 16th fairway during the second round of the SMBC Singapore Open golf tournament at Sentosa Golf Club's Serapong Course on Saturday, Jan. 30, 2016, in Singapore. (AP Photo/Wong Maye-E)
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Augusta National Golf Club - Augusta, GA
Par 72 - 7,435 Yards
"Hello Friends"
The time has finally come. We have waited a entire year to hear those iconic words from Jim Nantz. It's Masters week! The biggest tournament in golf at the most beautiful golf course on the planet. Before I get into the course and specifics for daily fantasy I want to share this video from Golf Digest that should send chills up your spine and get your head in the game!
If that doesn't get you excited for what is about to take place starting Thursday then I don't know what will.
Ok let's take a closer look at the course and some key stats that we will be using in our DFS model this week. Augusta National Golf Club is a 7,435 Yard Par 72 that will test even the best golfers in the world. The first thing to look at this week is going to be Driving Distance. Looking at the Par 5's, both Hole 13 (510 Yards) and Hole 15 (530 Yards) should be reachable for everyone but Hole 2 (575 Yards) and Hole 8 (570 Yards) are monsters and will only be reachable by the longest hitters in the field. The Par 4 holes are a mirror of how the Par 5's are set up front nine to back nine. The Front 9 holes are all under 460 yards including the short 350 Yard, Hole #3. The shorter hitters should have no issues with the length of these holes as their approach shots should fall between 150-200 yards depending on the golfer. The Back 9 is a different story. While there are three holes ranging from 440 Yards to 465 Yards, there are two behemoths in the 10th and 11th holes. The 10th is a 495 Yard monster followed by the 505 Yard 11th hole. Pretty much every short hitter is going to have 200+ Yards into the green on their second shot. The take away from all this? Target long hitters and if you are going to mix in a few shorter hitters make sure they excel in long iron play.
The next few stats that I find to be very important here at the Masters is GIR, Proximity from a few key distance(175-200 & 200+), scoring on Par 4's and 5's, Birdie or Better % and of course Strokes Gained: Putting. On my cheatsheet I broke the last two years Top 10 and looked at a number of stats that correlated to success and documented each golfers end of year rankings in those stats. The biggest thing I noticed when looking at scoring over the Par 3's, 4's and 5's is that you need score Birdies or better on the Par 5's, and pretty much survive the Par 3 and 4 holes by not making mistakes. The greens are extremely fast and undulating at Augusta so putting will be very important if your golfer wants to be in the mix on Sunday. A big discussion that always captivates me in the DFS community is the importance of Greens in Regulation vs. Proximity to the Hole. I have gone back and forth with this and find merit in both stats. I like using GIR a lot more when mining the field for good cash game plays. Hitting the green in regulation usually means the golfer is getting par or better unless they putt like me. When I dig a little deeper to find golfers who are going to score a ton of Birdies I look at Proximity to the Hole and more specifically from certain distances that I think will be important for each course.
To recap, I am looking for long hitters off the tee and guys who excel with their long irons. I want players who will make a ton of birdies, especially on the Par 5's and if you want to finish high in your tournaments you are going to need guys that can putt.
If you would like a closer look at the course here is an excellent video with a flyover of each hole at Augusta National.
Below are the main stats I am weighting on the cheatsheet this week. Up to 10 PGA Tour stats are used each week. The cheatsheet also provides last 5 years of tournament history and last 5 tournaments of current form. I have also added a tab showing the course layout and yardages as well as a breakdown of the Top 10 and key stats from the last two years at the Masters. A new addition this week is an overall weighting of Stats, Course History and Current Form.
I will again this week be interacting through the comments section below and ready to answer any questions about Fantasy Golf or anything you wanna talk about. Join the conversation. And as always, I am available on Twitter @Jager_bombs9.
Also, I have joined the Slurv team to bring you live daily fantasy golf chat throughout the week. Join myself and and a collection of some of the best DFS golf minds in the industry as we prepare for the biggest tournament of the year. Click HERE to get signed up!
High End Targets ($9,000+)
Jordan Spieth
Vegas Odds - 7/1
Draftkings - $12,300
Fantasy Feud - $188,000
Fantasy Aces - $
Unlike last years Masters where Rory was $1,700 more than next golfer, we have a very balanced top tier of golfers. This should create a fairly level ownership percentage for the top five or six guys. Spieth was 30% owned last year when he won his first Green Jacket and should be around 15-20% owned this year. There are a lot of people out there who are scared off because his form isn't where it was at this point last year(came in with back to back runner ups and a win). That is pretty tough to duplicate. He comes into this years Masters with four straight Top 20's which isn't too shabby. The only thing keeping him from being in contention deep into Sunday is his ability to hit greens and stick it close. This could very well be the week where he puts it all together. He has now played here twice and finished 2nd and 1st. He gets this course and is the type of player that thrives under the pressure of the biggest tournament in golf.
Adam Scott
Vegas Odds - 12/1
Draftkings - $11,900
Fantasy Feud - $169,000
Fantasy Aces - $6,000
He is the top ranked golfer in my model this week and for good reason. Not counting the Dell Match Play(finished 28th and didn't make it out of group play) he is coming into this tournament in elite form. He finished T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, won the WGC Cadillac, won the Honda Classic and finished T2 at the Northern Trust Open. It has been an incredible start to the season for Scott who has transitioned from the belly putter very well and ranks 42nd in Strokes Gained Putting. Of all the players in the field he ranks 3rd in Course History when looking over the past five years. There are a total of 15 stats listed on my cheatsheet this week and Scott ranks inside the Top 20 in all but Scrambling(77) and SG:P(42). He will be looking for his second Green Jacket on Sunday afternoon.
Rickie Fowler
Vegas Odds - 18/1
Draftkings - $10,900
Fantasy Feud - $158,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,850
It has been a tremendous rise into the Top 5 of the World Golf Rankings over the past two years for Rickie Fowler. In 2014 he didn't record a win but put his name on the map finishing inside the Top 5 in all four majors. In 2015 he broke out in a big way with two wins(The PLAYERS and the Deutsche Bank Championship in the Playoffs). He also added five other Top 10 finishes. He hasn't stopped there. In 2016 he has five Top 10's in just nine starts and has opened up the "Big 3" to an "Elite 5" on the PGA Tour. He checks off almost every statistical category this week besides Proximity from 200+ and Par 3 Scoring Average. He makes up for those with rankings of 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in BoB% and 2nd in GIR. He will be 100% motivated to grab his first official major championship(some consider the PLAYERS a 5th major).
Also Consider - Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson
Brooks Koepka
Vegas Odds - 66/1
Draftkings - $8,100
Fantasy Feud - $108,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,200
He let a lot of people down last week(myself included) but should rebound nicely this week as his game completely fits Augusta National. He bombs the ball a mile, hits a ton of greens, is great with the long irons and makes a ton of birdies on Par 4's and 5's. He finished 33rd here last year in his first trip to Augusta and should crush that this year. I am thinking last weeks missed cut will lower his ownership making him a tremendous GPP play this week at an incredible value just above $8K on DraftKings. I am going to go ahead and say it. He will be on the winning lineup(mine of course) of the Millionaire Maker this week.
Matt Kuchar
Vegas Odds - 66/1
Draftkings - $7,800
Fantasy Feud - $98,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,350
Kuch will be right at the top of my cash game lineup this week at a price under $8K on Draftkings. While he hasn't won a tournament in almost two years, he has been one of the most consistent cut makers on Tour. He has not missed more than two cuts in a season since 2009 and has started off this season making eight of his first nine. He is my top non bomber this week as he makes up for the lack of distance with great long iron play and tremendous putting. He also ranks 12th in Par 5 Scoring and 24th in BoB%. While I don't think he will win the tournament, I do see a Top 20 and possibly another Top 10 where he has finished three of the last four Masters.
Bill Haas
Vegas Odds - 125/
Draftkings - $7,500
Fantasy Feud - $94,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,750
Another great cash game play this week at a mid $7K price tag on DraftKings. While it feels a bit risky as he ranks outside the Top 100 in Driving Distance and Proximity he does rank 39th in GIR which is what I look more to when selecting cash game plays. He finished 9th at the Dell Match Play and was bounced before the Quarterfinals and finished T2 two weeks prior to that at the Vaslspar so he comes in with some form and confidence. Add to the safety with his course history here at Augusta. He has played in the Masters six times in his career and made the cut each time and comes in finishing inside the Top 20 in three straight years.
Also Consider - Patrick Reed, Paul Casey
Bernd Wiesberger
Vegas Odds - 250
Draftkings - $6,500
Fantasy Feud - $46,000
Fantasy Aces - $3,850
He comes in ranked 52nd in DraftKings salary and 25th in my model for the Masters. His statistics come from limited action on the PGA Tour but he is just above average in Driving Distance and has been elite in Par 4 Scoring ranking 21st so far this year. In his first trip to Augusta last season he had an incredible 22nd place finish which should help in a big way coming into this years event. He is coming in with solid form finishing T27 last week and T14 at the WGC Cadillac Championship. His upside may be limited but at a mid $6K price tag on DraftKings you only need about a Top 30 to make value.
Daniel Berger
Vegas Odds - 250
Draftkings - $6,200
Fantasy Feud - $43,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,000
It's Berger time ladies and gentlemen. The second year pro will be making his first trip to Augusta National and I feel he can be one of few first timers to have success here. It isn't going to cost you a whole lot on any site and his game fits what we are looking for almost too well. He bombs the ball off the tee and is Top 30 in both Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ Yards. He is also coming into this week after a solid T5 last week at the Shell Houston Open.
Also Consider - Scott Piercy, Charley Hoffman
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for The Masters? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
The Masters
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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View Comments
Have never played golf DFS but going to give it a whirl. 1M first prize on DraftKings too juicy to pass up :)
Ya no doubt. The pricing is soft as well making it easy to make a lineup. Make sure to get at least 3 guys with good driving distance. If you want an easy access tool showing 15 different stats for every player give our cheatsheet a try and contact me anytime for help understanding it. I also provide a few LU's each week as well. Good luck and I really hope a DFSR reader wins that CASH!!!!
How do you adjust your lineups due to the wind/weather forecast?
I am looking into it today as it looks like Thursday there is wind that gets worse throughout the day but only by a few MPH so not much effect. If there is a big difference I will adjust to get a few extra early tee time guys in my Cash Game lineup. GPP's I will leave alone and not over think.
Hi Chris,
I will try out the big game on DK this week. How does one get access to your lineups?
Where do we get the cheat sheet?
Also what do you think about guys who are local to Augusta or went to college there?
The form for the cheatsheet is below and there is also a link at the top. Let me know if you have more troubles
Not making any changes to my LU's. Wind looks to be strong for the first three days and doesn't look like one tee time will be favored over another.
Check that. I am sticking with original cash game and adding one more cash game more concentrated on Distance and long irons. Will update shortly
Haha. Ok final revision is done unless someone withdraws. I am still only running one cash lineup and one GPP on the cheatsheet. It has now been updated and you can check it out.