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Opponent - LAA (Heaney) Park - @LAA
FD - 38.09 DK - 20.88
There aren't many aces going today and Lester is probably as close to one as we'll get. Lester's coming off a season that saw him put up a 3.06 xFIP while striking out about a batter an inning and walking right around two per. Those are solid peripherals and today he's facing a team that outside of Trout and Pujols doesn't have anyone that worries you from a pitching perspective. The Angels get very thin, very quickly when moving down the lineup. Lester is a modest -121 favorite today which is about as good as you'll get on this slate. I don't love him, but that's more about the lack of choices than anything else.
Opponent - SD (Shields) Park - @SD
FD - 39.14 DK - 21.42
Yesterday was a day of aces. Today is, well, different. The pickings at pitcher are much thinner and you can see some of the major differences just in the opening lines on the games. Everything is coming pretty close in terms of odds and that means, at first blush, we don't have a ton of standout arms. The Dodgers are coming in as -130 favorites with the lowest total (6.5) on the slate. Kazmir wasn't as good as his low 3's ERA from last year as the xFIP was more in the low 4's range. But he's got a great park to deal in against a Padres team without any real power threat.
Opponent - STL (Wacha) Park - @PIT
FD - 30.9 DK - 15.68
Our system really likes him today on the cheap and I don't mind pairing him as a second SP on DK to load up on some bats. It's not like you are fading many aces here so going with a lesser arm doesn't worry you as much. Look, I don't have a lot of superlatives here for you. He's cheap, going in a pitcher's park where throwing to contact won't kill him and faces a Cardinals' team that's been bad against lefties in the past (though I suspect they'll improve some this year).
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @MIA
FD - 8.16 DK - 6.54
It's rare that I'll start a selection with an apology, but, sorry. Martinez was truly terrible last season, but our projection system forecasts him for a modest bounceback now that last season's knee problems are behind him. And, as much as anything, this is just a combination of all the little factors that make up a baseball projection. Martinez is affordably priced, is in a favorable platoon situation, and is facing a fairly bad pitcher. The key consideration for Chen, too, is the dramatic platoon split he's allowed over his career. He's allowed a wOBA .050 points higher to righties. V-Mart's switch hitting tendencies and the righties around him should lead to a nice high floor day.
Opponent - LAD (Kazmir) Park - @SD
FD - 6.33 DK - 5.03
If Martinez is the high floor play, Norris is his high upside counter part. The Padres' backstop had a wOBA .050 points higher against left handed pitching last season, and had 14 extra base hits in 122 plate appearances against them. Today he'll face the aging Scott Kazmir, who tailde off dramatically after being traded to Houston in the second half of last season. Now don't get me wrong - Norris could get a golden sombrero here. But on a day that features a good amount of solid pitching, he's got plenty of upside as well.
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.81
The Giants ended up as the stack of the day yesterday against Peralta and honestly, it could be more of the same today. Jimmy Nelson's better than not-so-fast Wily, but he's still very much just an average pitcher. Nelson strikes out about seven batters per nine and gets bit by the control from time to time. This is a good hitter's park and the Giants are in another great spot.
Opponent - TOR (Sanchez) Park - @TB
FD - 7.79 DK - 6.16
I don't mind going a little cheaper here today. Miggy and Goldie, while enticing, are a little to expensive for me unless you are going super cheap at pitcher. Morrison should be hitting in the two hole again today and is facing Aaron Sanchez who's one of the weaker pitchers on the slate. Sanchez walked more than four batters per nine and was brutalized by lefty bats to the tune of a high .300s wOBA. I like the batting order placement and the matchup for Morrison.
Early Slate Special - Lucas Duda
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.68 DK - 8.63
Tigers are for sure going to be one way to go on this slate. They run a train of righties in the first five slots in the lineup, all of whom have posted excellent career numbers in that split. Kinsler was solid in the split last year even if there was a power dip. He still put up an .800 OPS and 118 wRC+. The big key is hitting in front of guys like Upton, Miggy and JD.
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.12 DK - 7.35
Like I said with Belt above, this is another day to take a strong look at the Giants. We had Panik as a top play at second base yesterday and he moderately obliged with a single, run and rbi on the day. Considering how many runs the Giants put up I can see why this would be slightly disappointing. But it helped pay his tag. He's an excellent hitter against righties with an .852 OPS last season to go with a 142 wRC+. Still coming cheap and hitting in the second slot which is a big advantage.
Strongly Consider Ben Zobrist
Early Slate Special - Neil Walker
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.79 DK - 8.06
As long as he's hitting leadoff and coming in the lower tier of pricing then you are going to see him in the picks. He's a little more expensive on DraftKings, but on FanDuel there's no issue with fitting the salary. He's going in a hitter's park against Chad Bettis who has a live arm but isn't a guy we need to avoid by any means. With shortstop you are typically looking to just get the most plate appearances for the least amount of salary. I mean that's usually the case for everyone, but SS is such an offensive hole that if we get Segura hitting in front of Goldie, et al then he's good to go.
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 8.09 DK - 6.64
Going to be a theme here, but you want to grab SS on the cheap near the top of the order. Ketel is batting second and while I think he's a little pricey on DraftKings, FanDuel is a real nice price. His .720 OPS against lefties last season isn't good for real hitters, but there are shortstops we are talking about and Arlington is a great place to hit.
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @MIA
FD - 6.25 DK - 5.14
It's hard to really sum up how bad of an offensive position shortstop is. You know it's a real problem when I'm considering playing a guy who hits 8th for his squad and isn't really much of a hitter to begin with. But that's what we're staring down the barrel at with SS and Iglesias is part of that run of righties down the Tiger order. He's basically free (for a reason) and I'm mostly advocating you getting out of shortstop with very little cap commitment.
Opponent - LAA (Heaney) Park - @LAA
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.24
Bryant was actually better against righties last season, but I suspect that we will see that trend regress for him over the course of this season. He struck out more against lefties last year, but he walked more as well. He still put up an .800 OPS in this split and righties got to Andrew Heaney last year with a .315 wOBA. Bryant is a top play on a day when you don't have to pay a ton for pitching.
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @MIA
FD - 8.37 DK - 6.74
Not the biggest sample size but this guy was money against lefties last season. He walloped them with a 970 OPS and 414 wOBA in a little over 150 PAs. That's putting in work and he's just another reason lefties are going to loathe coming and playing the Tigers. Even tough he's a bit further down the lineup, the price and extreme platoon splits more than make up for it and allow you to spend up some other places if you don't go with Longoria.
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @ARI
FD - 7.95 DK - 6.36
I really like what's happening at third base today and you have a bunch of different options which is always a good thing. Lamb could come part of a D-Back stack in Chase Field today. He's coming near the minimums as a league average bat against righties. He's abysmal against lefties which keeps the price on the lower end. Not a stud by any means, but the other pieces are in place for him.
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.55 DK - 8.38
Justin Upton FD 3500 DK 4100
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @MIA
FD - 12.11 DK - 9.55
They're projecting to hit in front of and behind Miguel Cabrera. For anyone that's a good place to be. For both it's especially advantageous when the Tigers are facing lefties. The Tigers top five really projects to kill lefties and Upton and Martinez hitting down stream of these guys should give both plenty of counting stat opportunities. They've crushed lefties for their careers and Wei-Yin Chen's been rattled around by righties over the last couple of seasons. All the other Tigers are on here, so why not these two?
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.94
I suspect he moves up to the second slot in the order today against the righty Bettis. And that's the money slot for Peralta who hammered righties last season to the tune of a .936 OPS and close to .400 wOBA. Chase Field plays up power all around the park as one of the best hitter's havens around. I love the price on Peralta who has his salary kept in check simply because he's dreadful against lefties but is an everyday guy now. He's close to a must play for me if he's in the two hole.
Opponent - LAA (Heaney) Park - @LAA
FD - 10.48 DK - 8.3
Fowler's better split is against lefty pitchers and you are going to want to try and find a way to get him into lineups as well. The OF is a tough call today as I'm really liking all of these guys. Like I said with Bryant, Heaney is a mediocre at best arm with a mid 4's xFIP. Fowler put up a high .800's OPS against lefties last season and adds in some speed on top of things.
Very strongly consider Nelson Cruz who I probably should have written up, but alas. He's a great play nonetheless.
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View Comments
Check Chris Young OF and Chris Young P in the optimizer, I think you have the OF mixed in with the pitcher projections. Same name, but way different players. Thanks!
Great job today guys!! cashed in all 3 slates!! BOOOM!!!!!! lets get it again tomorrow!!
Question for the DFSR gang. Any kind of idea when the projections will match the new scoring this season? Seems like on FanDuel the first two days the projected score is around 100 and then that gets blown out of the water. Kershaw and Span had almost 100 between the two of them tonight. Guessing there will be a lag time as the math catches up with the new scoring, right? Thanks in advance!
I'm curious if these picks take into account the rainouts yesterday? There are some aces going in the Yankees and Red Sox games.
Jared. Did you just use the optimized lineup or did you adjust it.
The optimizier has guys in the early only and main together are we just suppose to adjust the line ups?
I used the optimized for the 4pm and it cashed in my double up. I adjusted the 1pm, but the lineup it gave what have cashed. The night games of 7pm and 10pm I did not adjust and they lost. So overall 2-2. Story (Colorado SS) needs to be updated somehow. Top of the order in that lineup, the system has him projected next to nothing.
Hey Matt,
One reason I love the comments and the community we are building is that it also helps keep our DB rocking when there's something amiss. You and some others mentioned Story. His projections were coming in way low because of an outdated baseline. Thanks so much for pointing it out. I've rerun our projections and he's coming in a much more normal (though not superstar) range.
Optimizer rocked!! Stacked dodgers on system too$$ Thanks guys.
Carnisha, you can take out games via the optimizer for whatever time slate you're adjusting for.
Just wondering--is VMart really going to get AB's in Miami?
Ah this is a good call. I hadn't even thought of that for some reason. The good news is, our system is auto-updated when batting lineups come out so if he's not there (which he probably won't be) he'll get dumped down to irrelevance. Good catch.