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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/05/2016
Austyn Varney

Welcome to the daily updates and injury news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!

Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock tonight.

By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!

What We Know

Brandon KnightBrandon Knight is out for the season

The Phoenix Suns are in full "tank" mode and have no incentive to win at this point in the season. They have decided to shut down Brandon Knight for the season due to the sports hernia he is dealing with. With only 5 games left in the season, this will open up some opportunity for Ronnie Price. Price has picked up 33 and 32 minutes in the previous 2 games Knight missed and will be the starting point guard from here on out. Tonight's match-up with the Hawks is a tough one as the Hawks are 6th in the league against point guards. However, Price is very cheap around the industry and is a fine value option in cash games and tournaments.

Omri Casspi is out with a strained hamstring

George Karl and the Kings have already shown us they don't mind letting guys rest with nothing to play for this late in the season. Casspi is a big part of the offense and plays the key role of 6th man. This news doesn't really put me onto anyone in this lineup but certainly secures the minutes for guys like Seth Curry and Ben McLemore.

Hollis ThompsonHollis Thompson is back
Those 30 minutes have to come from somewhere, and this likely means we'll see a little less Robert Covington and Jerami Grant.

DFSR 705x90

What We're Waiting to Know

Taj GibsonTaj Gibson is doubtful
Gibson is listed as doubtful for tonight's contest, which means we might get the opportunity to tear our hair out rooting for Mirotic today. The Bulls' big man has been fantastic in 3 of the 4 days that Gibson's been out, but he was truly awful in one day. Hard to call it a safe play, but there's big boom potential for sure.

Dwyane WadeDwyane Wade is questionable with multiple injuries

D-Wade and the heat are locked into the playoffs and are playing for seeding at this point. Wade and Spo are far mare worried about health heading into the playoffs than whether they will be facing the Celtics, Hornets or Hawks. That being said, if Wade is able to play, he will. This is not a match-up I love for Wade as he will see KCP for most of the game.

Nicolas BatumWill Nicolas Batum play?

Nicolas Batum left the game against Cleveland with a left knee strain and is questionable tonight against the Raptors. The Hornets have a ton to play for as they could finish the season anywhere from the 3 seed to the 8 seed. Batum is a huge part of this team and will need him out there if they want to finish the season off strong. I expect Batum to push himself into this game if at all possible. The Raptors will have a tough time matching up with Batum due to Derozan being undersized and Terrence Ross lacking defensive mechanics. I prefer Batum in tournaments as the injury puts some volatility in his minutes.

Khris MiddletonKhris Middleton is questionable with a thigh strain

Khris Middleton was a late scratch against the Bulls with a thigh strain and is questionable heading into tonight's game with the Cavs. The Bucks are a team that is not playing for much and have no reason to force anyone back at this point. This injury certainly has the potential to worsen which leads me to believe Middleton sits this one out. If Middleton does indeed miss the game, Tyler Ennis and Rashad Vaughn become very interesting plays. Ennis played 31 minutes and Vaughn 29 last game without Middleton. I am comfortable using either of those guys against a Cavs team that can give it up to guards.

Kyrie IrvingAre the Cavs going to rest anyone?

Kyrie Irving sat last game with an ankle injury he suffered a week ago. The Cavs have the 1 seed virtually locked up and have no reason to push anyone out that is less than 100% healthy. I expect Kyrie to sit out once again and would not be surprised to see someone else take a seat as well. Matthew Dellavedova becomes a great value play if Kyrie sits out. I would look at Iman Shumpert if Lebron sits and Tristan Thompson if Kevin Love sits.

Nerlens NoelIs Nerlens Noel going to play again this season?

The oh so great 76ers are considering shutting down Nerlens Noel for the season, as they should. The 76ers have a total of 9 wins on the season and are not attempting to win at this point. I expect Noel to sit which will open up some minutes for Jerami grant and Carl Landry. If Noel happens to play, I am taking Grant and Landry out of consideration.

Derrick RoseDerrick Rose is questionable to play

Derrick Rose is back at it again with the lingering injuries and iffy status updates. The Bulls still have an outside chance of getting to the 8 seed and if Rose can play, he will. This match-up against the match-up against the Memphis Grizzlies is a good one as Tony Allen will be on Jimmy Butler which leaves guys like Jordan Farmar and Xavier Munford to cover Rose.

Norris ColeNorris Cole is without a timetable to return

Norris Cole has missed 13 straight games and it looked like he was going to miss the rest of the season. Contrary to popular opinion, Alvin Gentry said he would like Cole to test out his back before the end of the season. Cole is currently questionable for tonight and it looks like he may finally return. There is no better match-up to come back to in the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are bottom 5 in the league against point guards and struggle more against penetrating point guards. I expect Cole to play around 25 minutes if he comes back and will be a great contrarian option.

Jon LeuerWill Jon Leuer play?
This would take a bite out of Tyson Chandler and Mirza Teletovic's minutes, but likely wouldn't make Leuer a play. If he's out, though, both Chandler and Teletovic are solid upside plays.

 

The "Every Lineup" Guys

Karl-Anthony TownsKarl-Anthony Towns
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 41.73 DK Proj. Pts - 42.48
Karl-Anthony Towns is such a talented young player and looks to finish off his rookie of the year season strong. The Timberwolves would love nothing more than spoiling the historic Warriors year and there is only one way that can happen. His name is Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns will need to be heavily involved in this one and you can expect him to shoot at least 20 times. Towns has played over 32 minutes in 5 of his last 6 games and will certainly see over that here. Towns is by far my favorite center of the day and will be a lock in my lineups.

Tim FrazierTim Frazier
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 28.28 DK Proj. Pts - 29.58
Jordan HamiltonJordan Hamilton
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 26.26 DK Proj. Pts - 27.47
Both of these guys are in similar situations as they are going to play around 32 minutes against a horrible fast paced team in the 76ers. You can expect both of these guys to hit value with ease as they are extremely cheap and are being forced into a very high usage.

Kobe BryantKobe Bryant
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 28.94 DK Proj. Pts - 30.30
How do you not play Kobe Bryant here? Bryant is facing the Clippers for the second to last time of his career and the game is obviously in the Staples Center. Bryant wants to end his career with some high point totals and can do that in this match up. Kobe may shoot 300 times tonight and all we need is for him to make about 10 to smash value. I am fine with Bryant in both cash games and tournaments tonight. Are you gonna hop on the narrative train with me? Let me know in the comments below!

These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!

image sources

  • Karl-Anthony Towns, Joffrey Lauvergne: (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

116 Visitor Comments

  1. I picked all four of those in lineups before I even checked out page !! Only one player scare me (Hamilton) that’s because when guys that payday, they tend to tone it down!! Let’s hope that doesn’t happen with Hamilton!!

    • Very good point. I think it is a bit different here as he is still trying to prove his worth in the league. That is always great news when an article backs up your own thought process!

  2. Im on whatever train the DFSR team is on!! lol on FIRE!! Question tho… the optimal lineup doesn’t have KAT in it when he is an “every lineup guy” thats very confusing… haha Let me know if KAT should be in my lineups! or follow the projections! thanks!

    • KAT is showing up in one optimizer. I advise using him today.

    • Things get shuffled around throughout the day and that changes things. KAT is not an “every lineup” guy at the moment, and he’s a solid (if risky) play against GSW regardless.

  3. Optimizer seems to LOVE Millsap and Hamilton today. Every edit I made still had those two popping up. who am I to question the Optimizer?

  4. Really need optimizer to bail me out. Late slot mlb was short by almost 25points!

  5. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$BOOM$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

    You guys are the bomb!

  6. It feels like you need to ride parker and giannis if middleton sits cause they will probably do every single thing without the presence of their shooter.

  7. We need someone to write about FantasyAces for the New Yorkers! I sent a message volunteering if anyone else is interesting in reading about Aces…

  8. Early optimal L/U for FantasyAces

    G D.Lillard 40.66 6,100.00
    G J.Butler 39.01 5,800.00
    G T.Frazier 13.50 3,800.00
    F A.Aminu 20.82 3,950.00
    F G.Antetokounmpo 39.78 6,350.00
    F J.Hamilton 24.95 3,650.00
    C P.Gasol 40.87 6,000.00
    Util R.Gobert 29.04 5,250.00
    Util T.Chandler 23.07 4,100.00

    I think this is assuming Leuer sits for Phoenix. Obviously would be even better if Middleton sat again for the Bucks and put more of the offensive load on GF.

  9. Kobe is a every lineup guy! These are his finals days in the NBA. I’m riding with him all the way to the end!
    He got me 1st place a couple night ago!

  10. You guys ALWAYS recommend ish and then when he plays his old team no love? I’m feeling a big game out of him. Would really like to match him and Frazier up at pg and g on draftkings

    • I think with so many better options at PG tonight there isn’t the need to ride the Ish uncertainty wagon. There’s definitely GPP upside…just better plays available.

    • Ish is definitely an option in tournaments. Tough to touch him in cash games with the safer options in every price range.

    • Lots of PG options, and the optimizer is spooked by the fact that his drives per game (his bread and butter) have been way down in the last few games. I’m a little concerned that he might be battling a little injury thing again. That said, huge upside play for sure.

  11. Ran an optimal L/U for FantasyAces focusing on games that tip no later than 8pm. It looks like there could be a LOT of late news today with players in/out/resting/etc so sometimes on FD/Aces it’s better to focus on earlier games where you know who is in and who is out so you don’t doughnut yourself…

    G J.Butler 39.01 5,800.00
    G I.Smith 30.50 5,000.00
    G T.Frazier 13.50 3,800.00
    F G.Antetokounmpo 39.78 6,350.00
    F J.Parker 27.93 4,800.00
    F J.Grant 22.51 4,300.00
    C P.Gasol 40.87 6,000.00
    Util Z.Randolph 29.77 5,300.00
    Util J.Hamilton 24.95 3,650.00

  12. Doug and the DSFR team…I have turned $3 into 80 in a matter of 2 days. You guys are the truth!!! Thank you!!!!

  13. I see mirotic getting some more love from the optimizer and he has had a few good games recently. Not sure a good spot for him against Memphis?
    Any injury or flu rumors for any of the late night games? Seems like some good options in 4 of the 5 west coast games.

    • Mirotic is always a great tournament play. I personally only play Miro when his ownership is low and it should be tonight.

  14. Couple thoughts. (and I’m new to cash games, so if anyone wants to help with my thinking there, please chime in)

    1) regarding Kobe as a cash play – this article claims that “Bryant is facing the Clippers for the final time of his career”, but they actually have a back-to-back set tonight and tomorrow where each team will play each other as the “home” team once (both games at Staples so home/away status doesn’t matter). Anyway, does the presence of another game tomorrow night against these same Clippers impact Kobe’s safety? Also rumors of Clippers sitting their stars for at least one of the games. Would Kobe vs The Reserves improve or harm his safety from a Cash perspective? I could see him actually sitting them game where the Clips rest players since i think he’d have little interest in beating up his body against a bunch of nobodies.

    2) regarding Jabari Parker as a Cash play – IF Middleton sits, there is talk of sliding Jabari to the 3 (because they are out of bodies) and drawing a matchup with LeBron. I could see this harming his fantasy production because he has to content with LeBron on both ends of the floor. Would this scare any of you off him as a Cash play?

    My early Cash lineup, for DK, any thoughts or recommendations would be much appreciated. Thanks all.

    Tim Frazier
    Jimmy Butler
    Jordan Hamilton
    Zach Randolph
    Tyson Chandler
    Damian Lillard
    Tobias Harris
    Pau Gasol

    last few thoughts: little nervous about Jimmy with matchup against Tony Allen. Would prefer Jabari over Tobias Harris, but nervous about LeBron matchup, could also look at Curry / Teletovic in place of Toby/Lillard.

    • Quick edit on thinking here. Kobe does seem very interested in pushing his way as far up the all-time-points leader board as possible before it’s all said and done. So the 300 FGA tonight could be spot on. Will have to think long and hard on this one…

      Kyrie questionable, does that make LeBron a must play if he sits?

      I like Z Bo tonight. Memphis is still in the thick of the playoff race and he is their only above average offensive player. Everything should run through him tonight. And it’s not like Gasol / Mirotic are on any of the All-Defense teams.

      • If Kyrie sits, it opens up a huge space for LBJ and Kevin Love to put up big numbers. But the Cavs aren’t playing for anything, so I’m still a little wary.

    • Jimmy went for 70 fantasy pts in a matchup against KCP (not Tony Allen but still a tough defender). I think in a scenario where Rose is out and the Bulls are fighting for their lives he’s still one of the better options at the position.

    • Always go wit match ups an gut feelings

    • 1- Ya, I messed up on that. Looked at the schedule wrong. I do not think it matters whether or not the starters sit. Kobe is much more concerned with the end of his career and ending on a high note.

      2- I dont buy into the talk that Parker is going to move over to the 3. The bucks are plenty deep and even if Parker starts at the 3 he will not play much there.

  15. Hey guys – I just added a couple guys above and updated the system. Let’s crush today!

  16. Thoughts on Kemba walker if batum doesn’t play… Been hot his last couple… Didn’t see any mention of him though?

    • If Batum sits, i’m playing Kemba in my GPP lineups

  17. I haven’t heard any news locally about Batum yet but considering they want home court in the playoffs, I think he prob plays. We’ll see. Kemba hasn’t always shot that well vs Toronto but he seems to be getting back to game takeover mode with season winding down.
    If Batum is out may consider lee as I think mentioned on daily write up, or Jeremy Lin as a tourney play. Batum missed 8 games in Jan (4 consecutive, later 3 and one more) and Lin avg 16 pts a game. Lin missed 2nd matchup of season with Tor but scored 35 against them in first matchup, also a game Batum missed in Dec. though Lin started that game and played a ton of minutes which would not be guaranteed this go around.

  18. Walker averages 22 shots per game when batum sits. Gotta like that in a meaningful game tonight

  19. Reid… Kobe has already came out and said he’s going to play in all of the remaining games. So, he’s definitely not sitting. Also, Byron Scott said Kobe will play more minutes in HOME games. While this isn’t technically a home game, it’s still in the same building. Use Kobe. He’s going to shoot 20+ times.

  20. Going to be so many guys sitting tonight tough to even think about a lineup yet. Expect around 6pm will get a ton of news of guys getting the night off for rest etc.

    • Nail on the head, Thomas. It doesn’t hurt to be prepared for various contingencies, but the money to be made tonight is in the 6-7pm EST hour.

    • Yep I’ll be hitting the reload button til go time.

      Good luck

  21. Looking for a great night with both opt in baseball and basketball

  22. i see mirotic in opt lineup has it factored in that rose is back?

    • Wayne, as of 4:30 EST the optimizer has Rose at 0 minutes. Imagine that will change here soon enough. Curious how it effects Pau and Jimmy as well.

  23. Rose says “i’m playing” and Hoiberg/Bulls saying GTD. He couldn’t even use one arm the last game he played and got up no shots and team scheduled an MRI and then he missed two games. Seems like the Bulls would be bettered served sitting him tonight and letting him get closer to being healthy. They end the season with the Cavs ( who will probably sit everyone), Pelicans and Sixers. If you can’t beat a depleted Memphis team with Rose on the bench probably shouldn’t be in the playoffs anyway.

    But hey it’s the Bulls 🙂 already rumblings they might try and move Butler in the offseason and continue to build around Rose which seems to me like the exact opposite of what they should be doing.

    • Here’s the quote from Hoiberg after shoot-around..

      “Derrick looked good this morning, We’ll monitor him throughout the day. We’ll get treatment, warm him up tonight and see how he’s doing, similar to what’s happened the last few games, but I would say he’s in a better position than he was the last couple games.”

      • Nice, that’s good info to have. Thanks Thomas. Good thing, for me at least, is their game starts at 6. I’ll lock Frazier / Hamilton in my lineups, stay away from CHA/TOR, and then i can play the injury news before the 6PM games start. Why i like playing DK…

  24. I suppose it’s the “sixers” applies but shocked Noel is playing tonight let alone another game this season. They have a log jam with Okafor, Noel and Embid ( and we’ve already seen Okafor and Noel can’t play together). Why on earth risk getting him further injured when he has to be at the very least a part of any trade discussion… clueless..

    • Agreed 100%. From a fantasy perspective, I could see this hurting Ajinca a little bit. Dude is slow as molasses. I could see Noel giving him fits, fronting the post, poking the ball loose, blocking shots, etc. But that’s complete speculation and should absolutely be taken with a grain of salt.

  25. Here comes all the notifications of the Kings sitting everybody lol

    Koufos out
    Belinelli out
    Rudy Gay Out

    Tim Frazier starting
    Ajinca is now starting
    (fantasy labs just tweeted)

    FYI to my DFSR fam!

    • Interesting. So this means Cousins is playing without Gay to steal shots or Kosta to back him up? Does that in any way make Boogie safer?

  26. So curry, mclemore, or Anderson for the Kings?

  27. Mirotic is showing up everywhere, is he really considered a safe play tonight? Thoughts?

  28. As expected…. here comes the 6pm news Batum OUT

  29. mirotic not seeming as safe. And did Kemba just get a major bump?

    • Kemba minutes and usage bump, but it’s probably not enough to get him into lineups over Frazier, Russ, etc

  30. So is Hamilton starting? If not, does that lower his value?

    • The only piece of news i wasn’t prepared to hear!

  31. I see cousins went up. Any worries of limiting his minutes since the tanking is on?

  32. James ennis a decent play at sg? On dk

  33. Couldn’t get the opt to work the last 10 mins til go time. Sucks

  34. And Babbitt is starting no Ennis announced 20 seconds after lock wow

  35. I love your guys website but this is the 2nd time now where I couldn’t get the optimizer to work at all for the last 10-15 minutes…..

    • Are you using this website through Safari? If so, don’t do it. Use Google Chrome. at least for me it works better.

  36. Now it choose to work. At 7:01 what a shame

  37. Unfortunate time for the site to go down. Luckily I saw Hamilton to the bench in time. Wasn’t sure who to put in so I went with half pj and half hark. It happens. No biggie. Let’s all win some $$$ tonight.

  38. What happened with site? Been trying to get on for awhile but page not working. Just able to get back on but after lineup lock.

  39. 2nd time in past few days site unavailable ~15 minutes prior to lock time up until lineups lock then back up. Sounds like a ddos from someone who feels threatened by the optimizer/site.

    • Nah, more than likely simultaneous connections/users problem. Server load getting hit with everyone trying to get optimal lineups 10-15 minutes before lock.

  40. We truly apologize for the site going down. This is of course our worst nightmare and comes as a direct result of a massive increase in traffic and site use.

    We had been assured by our server company that our last upgrade was more than enough to handle a significant spike in traffic. They were incorrect.

    We are a growing company and this is one of the pains in growth. It’s not an excuse of course. We are working to make sure these things don’t happen. But one of the hardest things to replicate is traffic and we’ve grown much faster than we thought possible. Again, many apologies.

    • Hey, the growth is a direct result of how good you guys are. It’s unfortunate but it happened. Just keep getting bigger and better!

    • Rackspace… they cost a little more but can take big hits from social media shares etc and still stay up. Too many server companies oversell traffic quantity when it’s more about uptown from spikes. Traffic spread-out through the day anyone should be able to handle.

    • Thanks Doug. Here’s to a good night

  41. As a glass half full kind of guy here’s hoping those of us who didn’t swap out Hamilton get rewarded as he sees extended run/shots off the bench 🙂

    Let’s win some $$$$$$$

  42. Add me to the unable to access for the last 15 minutes group, hoping the early optimized lineup I had saved has life to it. Good luck tonight everyone! Let’s cash

  43. If you guys need SEO help I have a company for ya. Just saying,sounds like you’ll be upgrading lots of aspects. That aside, you guys are awesome.

  44. Really hope Hamilton still gets some decent run tonight.

    • NO only has 9 active guys and 3 are Centers, so he should be fine.

  45. I couldn’t access it either but I know from [extensive] experience that making panicked decisions with the clock running down is more often disastrous than beneficial, so I just left it. Hamilton doesn’t need a whole lot of pts to hit value at his price, so hopefully he’ll be ok. He’s the only one that really worries me.

  46. Hard to get a winning line-up in when the website crashes when you need it most.

  47. Only thing I would suggest is if you were able to send a mass email as close to tip off with most recent optimal line ups to subscribers.

    • Michael. That’s a good suggestion. We are working to make sure it doesn’t happen, but in that event I will have something queued up.

  48. Thanks Doug. As many have said, I appreciate how on top of this board you guys are and the info we get. I have a couple good days since signing up recently so can’t be to upset since I’m in the positive. Hopefully I’ll get lucky with my random lineup, if not we’ll make it up on the late slate!

  49. Luke Babbitt has to be drifting into every lineup range. Dude has taken 50 shots the last 9 quarters and Pelicans seem content to let him chuck again tonight.

  50. I’m hating my lineup , it shows me how much I need you guys lol

  51. Hamilton 3x in the 1st half, we’ll be alright. Well…if Ajinca can manage to get more points than fouls the rest of the way…

  52. I think the optimizer will hit it again tonight…siwtched out stein for Teletovic last second. Other than that lineup looked perfect

  53. ajinca will be fine….hes just letting other guys step up

  54. I ended up with lillard, canaan, Lin, Bryant, freak, Hamilton, love, milsap, towns. Don’t imagine that was close to the most recent optimal but who knows. Good luck guys!

  55. Crap Jimmy butler looking tired and irrelevant out there with rose back. Did we go to the butler well one too many times? I see the ownership is Is all over McCollum and Lillard, which makes sense going against the kings. I hope McCollum has a subpar night lol. If Jimmy b doesn’t pick it up. He can really hurt us.

    • Bulls have no chemistry when an injured Rose plays. Chucking shots and turning over the ball because he wanted to play in Memphis because it’s where he went to school.

  56. Hamilton’s second half has been abysmal

  57. Well that went poorly. Russ at less than 20% owned in most of my cash games, if he’s got a 70-spot left in him now would be a very good time lol. Can’t win ’em all.

  58. Well butler is probably single handedly going to ruin my night

  59. Optimal lineup “minimal” tonight. Been great for several days, so I guess a flop is expected now & then.

  60. I’m looking pretty good. Projected on dk at 310

  61. Sorry I brought my luck to the opti! Just started using it last night. Please forgive me.

  62. Jimmy Butler worst game ever. SMH

  63. I have 1 or 2 flops in all of my lineups. From butler to Ennis to tucker to Kemba to Marcus Morris

  64. I took 3rd and 8th out of 588 with butler and 22nd out 1782 thanks to optimizer $9 got me $97.50

    • What contest were you playing it’s still 3 games being played

  65. Could be some sort of express slate that didn’t include the late games

  66. Looking forward to tomorrow I love the slate. I’m thinking of putting a lot more money than I usually put in.

  67. I didn’t win one thing I entered tonight. Ouch. Optimizer was O-fer for me for the first time in ages. Thanks Jimmy Butler and Kobe.

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