Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/4/16

Welcome to the "real" Opening Day of baseball. Yesterday was just a "whet your whistle" kind of thing. Today's the actual beginning of the season. It's a full slate of games and we'll be in front of the TV all day. Let's get to it.

 

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PITCHER

Clayton Kershaw FD 11000 DK 12900
Opponent - SD (Ross) Park - @SD
FD - 52.4 DK - 30.88
I'm sure this one comes as no real surprise. This early in the season sites like FanDuel and DraftKings are somewhat incentivized to keep the pricing on the softer side. It makes sense as folks get their feet wet with baseball and you really see it with a guy like Kershaw. He's far and away the best play at the position today. It's not close and I'm hesitant to recommend anyone else. I mean I will, because I'm awesome. But I don't love doing it. Clayton is coming off a season in which he struck out more than 11.5 batters per nine (you read that correctly), walked 1.62 and pitched to a 2.09 xFIP. I mean, really. It's absurd how good he is and there's no reason to think he doesn't continue this kind of dominance. Today he faces a Padres team rolling out some has-beens, some never-weres and a couple of dudes in between. This one's not close and Kershaw isn't priced anywhere close to out of contention.

Max Scherzer FD 10500 DK 12300
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 44.31 DK - 25.06
Among the next tier of pitchers things get a little closer. After we've moved past the obvious play in Kershaw there's a group of guys all hanging in and around the same level. Of that group I like Scherzer for the kind of upside we'd want to see in a tournament. The Braves are fielding a "team" of "hitters" who project for almost no power outside of Freddie Freeman and even he's not a completely elite masher. Scherzer's opening as a big -190 favorite in this matchup and the Braves project as one of the worst teams in the league this season. Scherzer has a lot of upside here.

Sonny Gray FD 8900 DK 8600
Opponent - CHW (Sale) Park - @OAK
FD - 38.02 DK - 20.25
I think our system likes the guy a bit more than I do, but we can grab him more on the price point than anything else. He's got to face Sale on the bump which means the win expectancy isn't quite where we want it to be, but he is a slight favorite. The White Sox finished dead last in the league hitting against righties last season and not much about their squad's changed in the off season that would make them markedly better against this hand. (Yes Todd Frazier is an improvement in some respects, but not in platoon splits). Gray is a fine enough pitcher who I like grabbing cheaper than the big boys.

Strongly consider Madison Bumgarner especially on DraftKings

CATCHER

Welington Castillo FD 2300 DK 3800
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 5.92 DK - 4.7
Going to see a couple of Diamondbacks on this slate simply because they have the fundamental pieces we want in DFS. Going in a good hitter's park against a lefty in de la Rosa who struggles with his command from time to time. Jorge has to pitch in Coors much of the time which isn't fair, but Chase Field plays up power to righties as well. For his career Castillo is significantly better against lefty pitching, putting up a lifetime .826 OPS and 127 wRC+. He should be hitting in and around the middle of the order and is coming very cheap on FanDuel.

Devin Mesoraco FD 2500 DK 3200
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @CIN
FD - 6.2 DK - 4.86
Look, you are going to see a theme developing quickly in these picks. We want to target the worst pitchers on the slate and hammer them hard. It's not a perfect equation, but over the long term in cash games it's the way to go. Mesoraco had an injury-shortened 2015 but when we look back to '14 we see a guy with power stroke and the ability to draw a walk from time to time. He should be hitting just below the middle of the order today and is coming at about the minimums. Easy play here between him and Castillo.

 

FIRST BASE

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4800 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 14.5 DK - 11.28
Easily the first base play of the day and I suspect he'll be showing up in all optimal lineups once it's all said and done. Goldschmidt's spent the better part of his career crushing lefty pitching and last season was just more of the same. He put up a .455 wOBA and close to 1.100 OPS in that split. Today he'll face Jorge de la Rosa in Chase Field, about as good a hitter's park as you'll see. Because the early season pricing is so soft, he's nowhere close to priced out of the market with this matchup and hitting environment. Easy play here and on FanDuel I suspect he's the highest owned hitter on the slate.

Chris Davis FD 3700 DK 5100
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.56 DK - 10.47
I wouldn't be shocked if a Baltimore stack ended up taking down some of the big money today. They have a nice matchup against Ervin Santana in one of the better hitter's parks on the slate today. Crush could lead the charge. His biggest issue of course is the K. He goes down on strikes a ton. So we want to target him against pitchers without the most live arms. Santana K's less than 7 per nine and allows a lot of flyballs. That's bad news in Camden Yards and Davis is a top play on FanDuel.

Joey Votto FD 3900 DK 4600
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.79 DK - 9.09
I actually don't love first base today outside of Goldie and Davis. But Votto's in the mix today where he, like many of his teammates below, are fully in play because of the matchup and the park. Votto's an elite hitter, patient with power.

 

SECOND BASE

Brian Dozier FD 3100 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.06 DK - 7.91
Projected to hit leadoff for the Twins this season, Dozier will open up with one of the more advantageous pitching matchups on the day. Chris Tillman is coming off a season in which he struck out less than 6.5 batters per nine and walked more than three. Won't see many worse numbers for an Opening Day starter. Dozier saw his K's increase last year, but the power ticked up as well. He hit a career high 28 home runs and was actually better against righty pitching for the season.

Joe Panik FD 2600 DK 4200
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 8.68 DK - 7
I'm a big fan of stacking the Giants today in Milwaukee where they go in a great hitters' park against one of the worst arms on the slate. He might be one of the worst Opening Day starters ever. Peralta struck out less than five K's per nine last season with a 4.57 xFIP. That's horrendous for a team's "ace" and the Giants should be able to get to him early. Panik projects to hit second in the lineup and was better against righties last year with an .852 OPS in primarily a pitcher's park. Though he has reverse splits for his career.

 

SHORTSTOP

Jean Segura FD 2400 DK 4100
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.33 DK - 6.86
This isn't 100% confirmed but it sure looks like Segura is going to open the season as the D-Backs' leadoff hitter. And if that's the case then you are looking at a sensational shortstop value right from the jump. Outside of a crazy run hot rookie campaign, Segura isn't much of a hitter and he loathes to walk. But if he's facing a lefty in de la Rosa, in a hitter's park and leading off in front of Goldschmidt, Peralta, etc then you are looking at a near must play at the minimums.

Zack Cozart FD 2500 DK 3100
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @CIN
FD - 6.89 DK - 5.54
Most days you will want to go cheap at shortstop mostly because the position, by and large, stinks offensively. There are some exceptions of course to the rule, but not many. Mostly what we want to target with shortstop is cheap value coming near the top of the order. Much like Segura, Cozart projects to hit at the top of the lineup for the Red. That's terrible news if you are a Cincy fan, but great news if playing DFS. He has a nice matchup against a low K Jeremy Hellickson and has the added advantage of grabbing that extra PA from the top of the lineup.

 

THIRD BASE

Josh Donaldson FD 4800 DK 4200
Opponent - TB (Smyly) Park - @TB
FD - 12.15 DK - 9.52
He's nearly a must play on DraftKings even in the pitcher's park in Tampa. Donaldson is one of the game's true lefty killers in the game. Last season he ho-hummed his way to a 1.025 OPS in that split with a .428 wOBA. Drew Smyly was no pushover last season, striking out guys at a high clip. But the $4200 DK tag on Donaldson is almost too much to pass up in this a lefty matchup.

Manny Machado FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.69 DK - 9.28
Machado played all 162 last season and finished with a fantastic line, going yard 35 times, stealing 20 bases and raking an .850 OPS from the top of the order. He'll hit leadoff again this year and can really hit righties. Last season he had close to a .900 OPS in that split. He's the FD play if you want to save a couple of bucks coming down from Donaldson.

Eugenio Suarez FD 2400 DK 3600
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @CIN
FD - 8.05 DK - 6.42
Look, Opening Day in baseball is full of aces and we want to do just about everything we can to avoid those big guns. Jeremy Hellickson is not one such pitcher and if we can stack Reds then let's do it. Most of them are coming cheap and it's realistic to roll with their top four guys in the lineup in tournaments. Is Suarez a good hitter? No, but he projects to hit second against a guy with a 4.16 xFIP last year in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball.

 

OUTFIELD

Bryce Harper FD 4800 DK 4500
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 14.22 DK - 11.05
Ever heard of him? Bryce falls into the same category as Goldie in that the pricing is so very soft on this first slate that it's tough to get away from him against a guy like Teheran who doesn't strike out a ton of hitters. Harper is an MVP candidate probably from now until the end of his career and I'm not going to spend a lot of time on his superlatives. He won't be in this price range for long and this is where taking advantage of early season pricing is key.

Miguel Sano FD 3100 DK 4900
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.14 DK - 8.65
Sano is projecting out as one of the top overall plays in the system today. He's coming off a fantastic rookie season that saw him OPS around .950 and just generally crush. Now some of that was run hot with the BABIP and the HR/FB. But he still projects as a fantastic play this season and has proven he can hit righty pitching in the short term. He's playing in Camden Yards, one of the better parks in baseball for righty power (though it does play better for lefties). Our system is calling him out today and I'm going to go with him for the price in cash games.

Ben Revere FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.36 DK - 7.82
If he's going to start the year hitting leadoff in front of Rendon, Harper and Zimmerman then there's a lot to like about Revere at these prices. He gives you absolutely no power upside, so take that into mind. But he's not the easiest guy to strike out and will get himself on base enough. Once there he has the speed to provide stolen base points and some solid run scoring expectation considering he's hitting in front of real bats. Teheran doesn't have big strikeout upside so I like Revere's chances of getting on base in this one.

Denard Span FD 3100 DK 4600
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.61 DK - 7.76
Like I said with Panik, Wily Peralta is one of the worst arms going on this slate. It's only a bummer the Giants don't have a more robust lineup that we can take advantage of though I do like a few of them at their respective prices. Span needs to get on base but that's part of his game. Last season he had identical BB and K rates at 9 each. He's very tough to K and Peralta has a tough time striking out anyone. The Giants are a very interesting stack today.
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