Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/3/16

Welcome to Sunday NBA Basketball! It's everyone's favorite time of year. Lowry and DeRozan were late scratches just now (I'm writing this on Saturday), and thankfully our lineup optimizer had both outside the optimal lineup. Let's hope the luck continues!

Today's slate is predictably a total mess. It's very tough to know who will play and who won't today, for injury reasons, shutting down dudes for the season reasons, and teams resting their players for the playoffs. Still, we should be able to pick out a good set of core guys to build around. Today is a day to be sure to keep your eyes peeled for the updates article for sure.

A quick note on format, to that end. It's going to be a little different. I'm going to highlight some key plays, for sure, but there will also be some thoughts on how the day could go in general based on the playoff picture. Whew, enough preamble - let's do it.

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POINT GUARD

All the damned cheap guys you could pick from today. Barea is great once again if Deron is out, Ronnie Price is worth a look if he starts again, likewise for Jerian Grant, and heck, even Shane Larkin. The only rub here, of course, is that this time of the season is absolutely bananas. If we know any of these guys is starting, they're all worth a look.

Damian Lillard - FD 8000 DK 8600
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 38.84 DK Proj. Pts - 41.92
Stephen Curry - FD 10200 DK 10300
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 48.98 DK Proj. Pts - 53.23
Or you could go entirely in the opposite direction today. It's the age old question this time of year - do you want teams with nothing to play for because they suck, or nothing to play for because they're already in the playoffs? I'm giving these two their full minutes today because the Dubs still want the record (and redemption after losing their first home game), and the Trail Blazers, while almost certainly in, could still leapfrog Memphis for the opportunity to play the Blakeless Clips instead of the Thunder. As for the actual match-up, this should be a very possession rich game, and both are priced at a discount thanks to some recent slumping. Both are solid plays for either big tournaments are cash games, for me.

A huge cluster of guys in a similar range
It's crazy how clustered the next group of guys is. This speaks to a hugely important point today - the most important thing you can do today is project out playing time. It's why playing a guy like Kyrie could be so risky (even if our projection system likes him at his projected 35 minutes). Another guy the system likes is...

Isaiah Thomas - The Celtics are potentially due for a let down here, and they don't have a ton to play for, but it's a very juicy match-up for Thomas, and our system loves his upside.

But really, if you want the nuts and bolts you'll have to track it through the system today. Point guard is just an absolute quagmire of solid plays (if you can guess the minutes!). Best of luck!

 

SHOOTING GUARD

Jimmy Butler - FD 7800 DK 7500
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 43.39 DK Proj. Pts - 44.83
Shooting guard, blessedly, is a little more straightforward than point guard. If Rose sits again, Butler stands atop the heap by a mile. The Bulls aren't mathematically eliminated, and every game is an absolute must-win. The Bucks have allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, but this one is all about opportunity and desire. Butler is a must for me in 50/50s and double ups today.

James Harden - FD 10700 DK 10600
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 53.76 DK Proj. Pts - 56.87
The Jimmy Butler of the West. Harden has been playing almost irresponsible minutes recently - 42 or better in each of his last 5 games - and the revenge game thing seemed to matter for him the last time these two met. Harden poured in 24 points and 16 assists, and while it'd be tough to count on that kind of performance again this time around, he's one of the few stars with something to play for. I expect him to bring it, and put up huge numbers.

Rodney Hood - FD 5300 DK 5300
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 26.29 DK Proj. Pts - 28.63
Another guy with something to play for, and whose team is really counting on him. He played 39 and 40 minutes in his last two games, and has paid 5x-7x points per dollar in each of his last 3. It's a phenomenal match-up with the Suns, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. Super safe play with plenty of upside to go with it.

Also considered: Bradley Beal for the early slate (the Wiz are holding on with the faintest of hopes) and Jordan Clarkson for upside in the late slate.

Baseball season is almost here. Check out the bottom of the article for our MLB ebook on setting daily fantasy baseball lineups as well as our MLB DFS strategy articles coming in the next couple weeks.

SMALL FORWARD

Gordon Hayward - FD 6900 DK 7000
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 32.94 DK Proj. Pts - 34.92
Like Hood above, Hayward will quite simply have to play in this game, and play lots of minutes. And thanks to Phoenix's pace, they're also quite bad against small forwards - they've allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season. With back to back 20+ point games in a row, Hayward seems to be back fully from his injury, and I'd be happy to trust him in any format.

Michael Beasley - FD 5500 DK 5200
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 26.06 DK Proj. Pts - 27.45
With their season on the line, the Rockets are playing Beasley more than ever. Which, I'm not sure if that's a credit to Beasley or a condemnation of the Rockets. Still, the fact remains - Beasley's lofted 33 shots in his last two games, and was able to get 12 in the air in 16 minutes of playing time the last time these two teams met. Beasley is simply underpriced if he's going to get this kind of action on 27-32 minutes a game, and he's certainly one of the upside plays of the day, here.

Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5400 DK 5000
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.54 DK Proj. Pts - 28.59
The second small forward slot is decidedly harder for me than the first. Aminu has been playing 30-35 minutes in close games, and he's put up some great fantasy totals when he does. And then he also plays low 20s minutes some games. But this is sort of what we get when we play daily fantasy. Aminu's a bargain on his top end production precisely because his low end production can kill you. Buyer beware and all, but you can get him at a very low ownership percentage tonight and he could very well go off. Tournament play only.

For safety's sake: I'm looking at teams with a real need to win. Paul George comes to mind, as does Otto Porter.

The wait and see crew: There's a handful here as well. I like Jordan Hamilton if he's going to start, and Nikola Mirotic to put up a solid game if we get definitive news on Taj Gibson sitting again.

POWER FORWARD

Holy smokes, this is another position that's completely ridiculous today. I'll do my best.

The great unknowns.
And there are a many. Will Thomas Robinson start for someone and be an awesome play again? How about Derrick Williams, who's a total shoe-in if Porzingis sits again (and he should)? Dante Cunningham is playing huge minutes and has been pretty safe on his basement prices, even though he's generally a terrible daily fantasy basketball player. Are we excited yet? Yeah.

Jabari Parker - FD 6500 DK 5900
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 30.73 DK Proj. Pts - 31.71
He's actually not the highest points per dollar guy in our system by any stretch, but Parker offers a level of safety that's very hard to find in the mid-range price point at the position tonight. The Bucks' season is over, yes, but it's been over, and Parker is still going out there for 37-41 minutes per night, and has averaged 34 fantasy points per game in his last 4 contests. The power forward situation in Chicago is all over the place right now, and I love him for my cash games tonight. Plenty of upside here as well.

Markieff Morris - FD 5300 DK 5100
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 29.43 DK Proj. Pts - 30.47
My eyes are bleeding ranking him this high, but you have to give credit where credit is due. Morris has averaged 32 fantasy points on 33 minutes in his last 2 games, and it's not totally an aberration. He's absolutely capable of a fantasy point per minute, and if the Wizards are going to rely on him for huge usage and minutes as their season winds down, who am I to disagree? The Clippers aren't starting a true power forward at the moment, so this could be another great one for Markieff. And yes, risk is involved.

 

CENTER

Rudy Gobert - FD 6100 DK 5900
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 31.11 DK Proj. Pts - 31.71
Tyson Chandler - FD 4700 DK 4600
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 26.48 DK Proj. Pts - 27.07
One with everything to play for, and one is just playing for pride, but I like both for a similar reason - price problems. The Jazz are playing Gobert more minutes than they have all season as they hang white-knuckled to their playoff spot, and that isn't like to change today. He's had 19, 18, and 14 rebounds in his last 3 games, and looks to be as safe as humanly possible in one of the best match-ups possible for a center. That match-up is with Chandler, interestingly, who is also priced well below his current opportunity - he's played 34 and 39 minutes in his last two games, and paid better than 7x+ points per dollar in each of them. I like both of these two fellas about as much as I could tonight.

Ian Mahinmi - FD 5200 DK 4900
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 27.03 DK Proj. Pts - 27.49
Also seems incredibly safe to me, tonight. The Pacers still need to win, and Mahinmi got some rest against the Sixers last night. He still managed nearly 5x points per dollar, by the way, and has averaged almost 6x points per dollar in his last 5 games as the Pacers fight for their spot in the playoffs. This is a straight, unsexy value play, but with so much uncertainty today I don't mind it a bit.

Also considered: Pau Gasol, especially if Rose sits. Monitor that situation closely.

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