Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/3/16

And just like that it's baseball season again. It feels like we never even left the grass fields, crack of the bats and a season that feels like it lasts a lifetime. This first Sunday only has three games on it so this is going to be a shorter version of our daily picks. We'll have a blowout post for Monday's big slate, but this is a good place to get started. Let's get down with our first baseball picks of the season.

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PITCHER

Francisco Liriano FD 8400 DK 9300
Opponent - STL (Wainwright) Park - @PIT
FD - 45.74 DK - 25.04
Liriano is coming off one of the best pitching seasons of his career. He finished 2015 with a 3.16 xFIP while striking out 9.88 batters per nine and decreasing his walk rate significantly off the career averages. It's a pitcher headed in the right direction for sure, especially when it comes to his control. He heads into this short slate Opening Sunday as the heaviest (by only degrees) favorite at -116 with a 6.5 o/u, the lowest on the board. The Cardinals were one of the worst teams in baseball against lefties last season, though they are in line for some improvement there in losing Heyward and moving Piscotty into the two slot. Still, they aren't a power impact team and PNC Park is solid for pitchers. On a tough day our system has Liriano as the top pts/$ play.

Adam Wainwright FD 8600 DK 8700
Opponent - PIT (Liriano) Park - @PIT
FD - 36.79 DK - 18.72
I don't typically like pairing pitchers facing off against each other because it greatly diminishes the win expectation on a site like DraftKings where you are rostering two of them. There's also the added piece of Wainwright coming off an injury-shortened season. I understand the risk here for sure. He does have a couple of things working in his favor though. He's going in a pitcher's park, won't have to face the DH and faces a Pirate team league average against righties last season. I wouldn't play him on FanDuel, it's all Liriano for me there, but on DK in cash games in the second SP slot I think you can take the risk relative to price.

CATCHER

Travis D'Arnaud FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @KC
FD - 5.78 DK - 4.6
Fair warning: You are going to see a bunch of Mets on this list today. The reasoning is simple. They face, by far, the worst pitcher on the slate in Edinson Volquez. It's really that easy and in baseball targeting the weakest arm on the slate is typically the way to go. d'Arnaud is coming off a sophomore campaign that saw him put up a low .800's OPS though in less than 300 PAs. Travis is slightly better against lefties for his career, but platoon neutral all things considered and if he's slotted sixth in the lineup then you are looking at a decent plate appearance expectation.

Strongly consider John Jaso if he's hitting leadoff for the Pirates

FIRST BASE

Lucas Duda FD 2600 DK 4200
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @KC
FD - 9.07 DK - 7.06
He's a must play on FanDuel and looks seriously mis-priced on that site coming right out of the gate. Duda's very much a known commodity at this point, putting up almost an identical 2015 as his 2014. The K's were up some and BB's down, but not to alarming degrees. He was actually better against lefties last season, but that's not a career trend. He's a career .364 wOBA guy against righties with an .842 OPS. Volquez gets bombed by righties and this matchup is choice for Duda. It's a little closer on DK, but he's the easy cash game play on FanDuel.

Consider Logan Morrison on the cheap

SECOND BASE

Neil Walker FD 2500 DK 4100
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @KC
FD - 8.53 DK - 6.79
Much like the other Mets I've already listed here Walker is close to a must play on this opening slate when it comes to cash games. Of course in tournaments you can go for separation somewhere else. But I don't see how you get away from 3-4 Mets in your 50/50 lineups. Not when the other squads are throwing out aces and the Royals are putting out a guy with a 4.26 xFIP in 2015 who struck out less than seven batters per nine and walked more than three. Walker is significantly better against righty pitching for his career and projects to hit in and around the middle of the order.

Consider Josh Harrison

SHORTSTOP

Alcides Escobar FD 2300 DK 3600
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @KC
FD - 6.75 DK - 5.59
Welcome to another season of seeing way too much of Mr. Escobar. It was a running joke last season between him and Jhonny Peralta in our shortstop plays. The thing about Escobar as we said ad nauseum last season, the batting order placement for him is the whole name of the game. As long as the Royals insist on running him out there in the leadoff slot (even though he can't really you know, get on base) makes a huge difference. Getting an extra expected plate appearance each game gives such a boost to the raw expectation that at a weak offensive position you can roll with him on almost that idea alone. Plus he's free and there are few other options on this slate.

Consider Asdrubal Cabrera I suppose, but if Alcides is hitting leadoff that's the only guy I'm playing short of GPP stacking situations.

THIRD BASE

Josh Donaldson FD 4800 DK 4300
Opponent - TB (Archer) Park - @TB
FD - 8.56 DK - 6.8
Look, this is a tough Opening Day slate of DFS baseball. There are only three games and most of the pitchers going are live arms. That's the nature of the game when Aces or Ace-Lites go in the first couple of days. So do I like playing Donaldson against an arm like Archer? No. But the former has some advantages here. He projects to hit second in the lineup which will give him plenty of plate appearances and Archer does have some walk issues (as compared to the other arms here) which can lead to shorter stints in the game and extra PAs. I think you are getting so much savings on the Mets guys too that paying up for Donaldson and taking the chance isn't a huge deal considering he's the best offensive third baseman on the slate even with the platoon disparity.

Consider Evan Longoria

OUTFIELD

Curtis Granderson FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @KC
FD - 10.16 DK - 8.27
Yoenis Cespedes FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @KC
FD - 8.93 DK - 7.29
Sick of the Mets yet? Not me. On DraftKings where you can play five players from one team, getting this many Mets into your lineup is perfectly reasonable on this short slate. Staking your claim with them as a team against the worst pitcher on the slate. Granderson, from the leadoff slot, is a must play for me on this slate. His biggest issue is the K, but that risk decreases against a guy like Volquez. Edinson allowed a high 4's xFIP to lefty batters last season and I don't see anything to suggest he's suddenly changed his style.

Cespedes meanwhile provides the power bat from the middle of the order and Volquez was equal opportunity mediocre against righties as well last season. It's really hard to keep saying the same thing over and over when it comes to the Mets, but stacking them will be the chalk play today.

Jose Bautista FD 4500 DK 4300
Opponent - TB (Archer) Park - @TB
FD - 8.69 DK - 6.82
The pricing on this opening slate is very soft which makes sense from the sites' perspectives. It incentivizes folks to get money in early and not get totally dusted in the first few days of the season. But it also means we can get some of the heavy hitters without losing too much across the rest of the lineup. That's the long and short of rostering a guy like Joey Bats today. Simply put: you can. He's not that expensive and after the Mets guys he's the highest raw point projectons on the slate.

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