Chicago Bulls' Jimmy Butler (21) waits for a play to develop as he is guarded by New York Knicks' Arron Afflalo, right, during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015, in New York. New York defeated Chicago 107-91. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)
Oh man. Late season NBA is a real grind. I'm probably going to say something similar from now until the end of the season but it needs repeating. Teams are all over the map in terms of what they are playing for - the playoffs, tanking, something in between. It means minutes and projections are up the air at almost all times. Please keep that in mind. Please. I beg you.
Today it's a standard Saturday slate with a bunch of potential value on the board. We'll be keeping a close ear out for injury news tonight as a couple potential pieces will have a domino effect.
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Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 35.54 DK Proj. Pts - 37.25
On this slate there aren't a bunch of upper tier price plays and there aren't a ton of elite punt plays either. I think when it's all said and done you are going to be middling a lot of your lineups. Dragic fits in perfectly with this idea. He's facing a Portland team that allows worse than league average scoring to opposing point guards mostly because Dame Lillard's main focus is the offensive end. I like Dragic in a vacuum and really love him if D-Wade sits again.
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 39.46 DK Proj. Pts - 42.26
Lillard's seen a price dip over the short term. It's for a couple of different reasons. He had a horrific shooting night against the Celtics and the game before was blown out by the Kings. Both resulted in sub par performances. He also struggled shooting the two games before that. It's all led to some of his lower prices of the season and I love buying him here. Miami's a tough defensive matchup, but this is a price thing plain and simple. He's been running bad from the field, but the upside is fantastic at these salaries.
Consider Tony Parker
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 43.15 DK Proj. Pts - 44.52
One of the worst things that could have happened to the Bulls the other night was them pulling off the win against Houston. It means they are still in the playoff hunt and will be trotting out their guys for major minutes as they look to overtake that last playoff seed in the East. I think they'd be better served shutting dudes down, but alas, it's the NBA. Though for DFS purposes this is great. If Rose can't go tonight then Butler sees a massive uptick in projected usage right at a time when his price has dipped. It's a perfect place to meet on the graph and if Derrick isn't going then Butler's a must play (and he's close to a must even with Rose playing).
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 18.72 DK Proj. Pts - 19.78
I'm making a couple of assumptions with this play. The first is that Derrick Rose isn't playing. The second is that Moore draws the start in his place. It's early to write him all the way up but this slate is a funky one. The shooting guard slot is pretty brutal after Butler and if Moore was getting the nod then he'd vault into must play territory especially on DraftKings where he's a true punt. The Bulls' situation is the key to most of this slate tonight.
Consider C.J. McCollum mostly because I think it will be rather easy to afford him
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 30.03 DK Proj. Pts - 32.4
Though Bobby Portis started last game, that move was really for show only. I caught a ton of flack for highly recommending Portis, but dude wasn't the real beneficiary of Taj Gibson sitting. It was Mirotic who came off the bench and just lit up the Rockets. Expect more of the same minutes tonight and if Gibson is sitting then Mirotic is basically a must play at these prices. The last two games he's averaged 38 minutes and a 28/7 line. Don't expect him to keep shooting 50% from three, but he could regress to his averages and still be the play of the day considering the opportunity. Also, luckily Mirotic is a PF on DK where he's definitely a must play.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 40.53 DK Proj. Pts - 43.22
Outside of a Rose-less Jimmy Buckets, PG has the highest raw points projection on the slate. Because you'll see saving in at PF and possibly some at shooting guard as well, I think he's an extremely popular play against the Sixers. Philly's been crushed small forwards this season who are averaging about 10% more scoring and rebounding than league average. The concern here is the blowout with the Pacers opening the game as 11 point favorites and the Sixers trying to lose on purpose. That would be my only hesitation in running George.
Strongly consider Rudy Gay if he's going to take a lot of Boogie's shots
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 28.54 DK Proj. Pts - 30.1
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 29.34 DK Proj. Pts - 30.64
Power forward is real thin after WCS and is ultra-iffy on DraftKings where dude is listed as center. Luckily we have Mirotic. On FanDuel I think either Harris or Deng become basically a default play because you don't have to spend a ton on them and they are both seeing enough minutes to keep the floor respectable. Deng's a better play if Wade doesn't play again, but like Dragic I'd consider rolling him independent of the D-Wade news.
I don't love Harris' matchup here but again, this is a default thing. The other positions have savings built in with high floors. Not power forward where even the minutes are hard to come by with any semblance of safety.
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 25.93 DK Proj. Pts - 26.36
It was announced very late in the evening that Cauley-Stein would start last night and I suspect you see him in the lineup again tonight. He was brutal in the first half yesterday even though he saw a ton of minutes and then just didn't start the second half. It's tough to know that to do here. He's cheap if he's drawing the start and he does have a track record of success when running with the starters. Even with last night's missteps I'd play him tonight and hope that some folks are off him because of the rough recent performance. Update: WCS left yesterday's game early. We'll monitor his status today.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 40.51 DK Proj. Pts - 41.16
He's still an elite play on DraftKings and makes for close to a must play over there because the price is so advantageous. On FanDuel it's closer. Gasol doesn't have a huge minutes ceiling though I'm not sure it matters with his DK price. He's so much cheaper over there and his game keeps the floor high because he can contribute in every part of the stat sheet. He doesn't see much of a change in usage with or without Rose on the court, so I'm not too worried either way if the latter can't go.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 26.75 DK Proj. Pts - 27.2
The Sixers are running out super small lineups right now without Noel or Okafor on the court. They are basically starting Carl Landry and Jerami Grant as the interior defenders and neither has anything close to the size of Mahinmi. Ian should be able to work down low and he's been seeing minutes consistently around 30 per. He could be looking at a double-double tonight with little in the way of resistance on the blocks.
Strongly consider Andre Drummond
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View Comments
So many good plays coming out of SAC. I saw rondo was out too now. Collison, curry, gay, WCS, and koufus could all be great plays against the nuggets
More of a question of where to deploy cash with no one on this slate over 9.2k
Good night last night with optimizer. Wish I'd used it for all entries a instead of mixing and matching and would have cashed out everywhere. Tonight looks to be a tough night to predict with so few big guns.
I know you wrote up WCS, but is koufos looking to be a solid play again even if he doesn't start considering stat line from last night?
I hear ya. I switched out Middleton for Klay from the optimal and it cost me a quintuple up. Optimizer killed it tho.
Here's a question. How good defensively are IND? Thought Ish Smith as a good play last night....I was wrong.
Also, anyone know the deal with Wade? Is he in or out today?
same here brian, and ish smith I believe got high 30 fantasy points last they played, just chugged a beer to forget the snowflake on my DK screen
But I'm wondering if tonight could be a good night for him. IND looks tough across the board as far as points against.
Might have to just fade out PHI in total.
wade is a GO for tonight
Scored 355.9 points on fanduel finished 11th out 20114 entries! Keep up the great work, won some big money last night thanks to DFSR help!
By far the best DFS site around. Thanks Doug and whoever else handles the basketball info. I'm a new member and been making a good profit so far on cash games. I hope baseball is as good.
Wade doubtful