Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) goes to the basket against Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson (6) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2015, in Washington. The Lakers won 108-104. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Big Friday in the NBA as we start winding down the regular season. Things can always get a little hairy this time of year as playoff teams rest key pieces in anticipation of a late season run and non-contenders try to not-so-openly tank for a better lottery pick. Things get odd with minutes and we need to keep up to speed with breaking news on lineups more than ever.
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Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 46.71 DK Proj. Pts - 48.06
There is a lot of point guard value on this slate and Wall for me is really only a FanDuel consideration. But he's playing the Suns who are the fourth fastest team in the league while also playing the third worst defense. This game's opening at a 214 expected total with the Wiz favorites but not in a way that projects to get out of hand. Wall is playing tons of minutes as the Wizards are still kind of in the playoff hunt. Again, he's FanDuel only for me, but a top play over there.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 37.42 DK Proj. Pts - 39.82
Same game, different side of things. He struggled from the field against the Bucks the last time out, though they are a tougher matchup for point guards. Not so much the case for the Wiz who play at the same pace as the Suns with only a slightly better defense. Knight gets up more than 15 shots a game at his current minutes expectation and should easily be in line for that tonight. I'm all about stacking this game in 50/50's because the pace is just right and the defenses are suspect.
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 21.85 DK Proj. Pts - 22.98
The Nets have turned the point guard reins over to Larkin (a sign they are pretty hopeless) and he's running major minutes as the primary ballhandler. The Nets are favorites to get waxed most nights, but tonight they get the Knicks who have serious issues of their own. Larkin's price isn't anywhere close to his opportunity right now. He's not much of a scorer (or a player) but he's the starter and the minutes give him a great floor relative to price.
Strongly consider Ish Smith
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 28.98 DK Proj. Pts - 31.28
I'm loving the volume we're seeing from Beal right now as he's put up 37 shots in his last two games with the minutes to go along with that kind of usage. When it comes to his value Beal is very much scoring-dependent and needs that shot to fall. Phoenix is the kind of team we expect to see shots getting up early and often. Like I said with Wall, Phoenix plays fast and loose with their defense. Beal's prices haven't climbed all the way back up since he was on that minutes restriction. He's an easy play on this slate.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 25.62 DK Proj. Pts - 27.82
After shredding the Lakers on Monday when he scored 30 points (8-9 from three will do that) in only 29 minutes, he came back and played well again against the Warriors on Wednesday. He's right back in play tonight against a Minnesota team playing around average against opposing shooting guards. Hood, much like Beal, needs the three to fall which does keep the price down over the long term. It's because when the shot is falling he has nothing else to raise the floor. But he's cheap enough to take the risk.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 20.4 DK Proj. Pts - 21.82
I'd like him a lot more if I knew Jeremy Lin wasn't going to play. Without Linsanity around Lee stands to see minutes in the mid-to-high 30's and gets enough done in all facets of the game that he'd slot in nice for cash game purposes. Of course, if Lin is around then I'm probably looking elsewhere.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 50.63 DK Proj. Pts - 52.52
Small forward is real bad on this slate. As of this writing Lebron was the top points/$ guy in our system at the position (on FD) which is nuts considering his price tag. He's a good play mind you, but this is more an indictment of the position as a whole. It's a weaker class for sure and I suspect we will see Lebron in all lineups today short of some crazy news. Atlanta's a good defense for sure, but this is just as much about Lebron still coming in as a relative bargain.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 33.29 DK Proj. Pts - 35.23
Utah's firmly in the playoff hunt and is incentivized to play their starters as much as possible with every win meaning something. Hayward's been running like crazy playing 40 in regulation and 39 two games before against Minny. He's not a huge ceiling guy but I don't mind the safety on him if the Jazz need to run him for long stretches. He can score, but Hayward will pitch in along the rest of the stat sheet. Minnesota allows more than league average scoring to opposing small forwards and Andrew Wiggins isn't a fantastic defender.
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 28.49 DK Proj. Pts - 29.75
Oof, I know, I know. This one is tough to stomach, but you need to understand that small forward is very weak and Gay is looking at a game without Boogie on the court. I know in the short term that hasn't translated to fantasy production but historically Gay's usage rate goes way up with Cousins off the court. Rudy's price is such that he's not a massive risk if you think he sees a 15-18% uptick in shot attempts and minutes around 35. I can deal with him in the mid 6K range if that's the story. But he isn't a lock for me like he's been before with Cousins out of the lineup.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 33.31 DK Proj. Pts - 33.9
Do you believe in the recent minutes? If you do then Len is a clear play tonight against the Wizards. In his last two games he's averaged 37 per and a 15/14 line. In a game against a lightning quick Washington team you'd be looking at a lot of volume from Len if he's going to play most of the game. The problem is trusting the minutes. The Suns jockey these things around all the time and they are anything but safe. I'm more than willing to take the risk because even in the low 30's he's got a decent floor. Price isn't completely in line with a guy who could play close to 40.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 22.96 DK Proj. Pts - 24.31
This is obviously only if Kristaps Porzingis were to sit again. Zinger was ruled out early on Wednesday and I would put him more in the doubtful range. Derrick Williams grabbed the start, played 35 minutes and went 15/8. That's more than enough to pay off these prices and he'd be basically in the must start range if he were running with the varsity again. Take a wait and see approach on this one.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 34.34 DK Proj. Pts - 36.83
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 35.07 DK Proj. Pts - 35.52
I don't mind the prices on either of these guys in games that should stay close-ish. Not over the moon about either, but both Atlanta and Minnesota allow more than average fantasy production to the opposing power forward position. Love playing third banana on the team is always a little dicey with his production and Favors has a tendency to disappear from time-to-time. But both rate out well in these matchups and are a tick below the upper tier.
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.23 DK Proj. Pts - 23.63
With Boogie set to sit this one out we should see plenty of Koufos in this matchup. The last two times Boogie's sat Koufos has played minutes in the mid 30's and averaged a 13/11. He's coming very cheap all around and will be one of the more popular plays on this slate. The price really can't be passed up on and there's recent evidence to suggest his minutes are safe in this kind of scenario. Not the best matchup against Miami, but that's negligible considering the other factors.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 32.78 DK Proj. Pts - 33.33
How about another guy from this game? Why not? Gortat's price has stuck in this range because the Wiz have been forced to go small late game in order to make up points against the Warriors and Kings. I don't think that's going to be the case tonight and I think you see him play in the low 30's at least. Gortat should be able to get to value just with the pace of the game even with a tougher matchup down low against Tyson Chandler. Like I said at the top, I'm all about stacking this game.
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View Comments
I'm having a pretty decent night so far, with the lone exception of Aaron Gordon, who I stupidly decided was a better play than Kevin Love. Oof. Anyways, I'm surprised Batum isn't listed. He did put up 49 against the 76ers just a few days ago.
This is my early, early early lineup
Wall
Payton
Beal
Hood
Melo
Batum
Favors
WCS
Koufos
I'm sure I'm not the only one who scored a Monster ticket so no pressure on these picks ;)
WCS is most likely to be chalky. He'll probably find a home in my lineups. Gay is also due for a non horrible game lol. But Hayward is much better if you can find the money
Agreed he might be a popular play. My issue with him is simply about price now. He's no longer a punt play and doesn't start with Boogie out. Don't mind him but I think there's some risk.
If Favors sits Hayward is straight chalk probably Hood to for me.
Curious to see what Cleveland does with a back to back and then another game on Sunday.
Hey good lineup last knight DFSR!
Don't forget about Batum! I see he doesn't have a good rate in the optimizer either! He plays better at home and just dropped 49 fdp on this exact team. Ijs :-)
To all the jerks who feel the need to come on here and bash the picks "Nice call on Portis", no one forces you to put these guys in your lineup. They are merely recommendations, but ultimately it's your money and you have final say. Use the recommendations as a guideline, but also do your own research and come up with your own conclusions. That's all.
Can someone tell me what the optimum LU scored last night on FD? I was scared off of RW and ran with the optimum that had IT/Lillard at PG which was fail
The Westbrook lineup scored 305 which was an easy 50/50 cash. You're right, the non-RW lineup got killed mostly thanks to an incredibly horrible shooting night from Lillard. I played both lineups so broke even on FD
At what time did you consider the "optimal" to be locked? It sometimes changes right up to tip. How late does one have to (or can one) check?
Zachary, it was 383 with RW and Rivers at PG position
Jared, I noticed whenever a player plays a team back to back they never do as well as the first game... I have been bit by it several times. First game they put up 40-50 points and then they play same team again next night and put up barely 20. Just beware
Is anyone else having loading problems with the fanduel pro optimizer?