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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/1/16
Big Friday in the NBA as we start winding down the regular season. Things can always get a little hairy this time of year as playoff teams rest key pieces in anticipation of a late season run and non-contenders try to not-so-openly tank for a better lottery pick. Things get odd with minutes and we need to keep up to speed with breaking news on lineups more than ever.
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A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!
We've also launched a Stats and Research Page, which includes a lot of the individual statistics that we use to make our projections. It's free! Enjoy.
POINT GUARD
John Wall - FD 9600 DK 10300
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 46.71 DK Proj. Pts - 48.06
There is a lot of point guard value on this slate and Wall for me is really only a FanDuel consideration. But he's playing the Suns who are the fourth fastest team in the league while also playing the third worst defense. This game's opening at a 214 expected total with the Wiz favorites but not in a way that projects to get out of hand. Wall is playing tons of minutes as the Wizards are still kind of in the playoff hunt. Again, he's FanDuel only for me, but a top play over there.
Brandon Knight - FD 6900 DK 7100
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 37.42 DK Proj. Pts - 39.82
Same game, different side of things. He struggled from the field against the Bucks the last time out, though they are a tougher matchup for point guards. Not so much the case for the Wiz who play at the same pace as the Suns with only a slightly better defense. Knight gets up more than 15 shots a game at his current minutes expectation and should easily be in line for that tonight. I'm all about stacking this game in 50/50's because the pace is just right and the defenses are suspect.
Shane Larkin - FD 3900 DK 4100
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 21.85 DK Proj. Pts - 22.98
The Nets have turned the point guard reins over to Larkin (a sign they are pretty hopeless) and he's running major minutes as the primary ballhandler. The Nets are favorites to get waxed most nights, but tonight they get the Knicks who have serious issues of their own. Larkin's price isn't anywhere close to his opportunity right now. He's not much of a scorer (or a player) but he's the starter and the minutes give him a great floor relative to price.
Strongly consider Ish Smith
SHOOTING GUARD
Bradley Beal - FD 5900 DK 5800
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 28.98 DK Proj. Pts - 31.28
I'm loving the volume we're seeing from Beal right now as he's put up 37 shots in his last two games with the minutes to go along with that kind of usage. When it comes to his value Beal is very much scoring-dependent and needs that shot to fall. Phoenix is the kind of team we expect to see shots getting up early and often. Like I said with Wall, Phoenix plays fast and loose with their defense. Beal's prices haven't climbed all the way back up since he was on that minutes restriction. He's an easy play on this slate.
Rodney Hood - FD 5300 DK 5200
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 25.62 DK Proj. Pts - 27.82
After shredding the Lakers on Monday when he scored 30 points (8-9 from three will do that) in only 29 minutes, he came back and played well again against the Warriors on Wednesday. He's right back in play tonight against a Minnesota team playing around average against opposing shooting guards. Hood, much like Beal, needs the three to fall which does keep the price down over the long term. It's because when the shot is falling he has nothing else to raise the floor. But he's cheap enough to take the risk.
Courtney Lee - FD 4300 DK 4000
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 20.4 DK Proj. Pts - 21.82
I'd like him a lot more if I knew Jeremy Lin wasn't going to play. Without Linsanity around Lee stands to see minutes in the mid-to-high 30's and gets enough done in all facets of the game that he'd slot in nice for cash game purposes. Of course, if Lin is around then I'm probably looking elsewhere.
SMALL FORWARD
LeBron James - FD 10100 DK 9900
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 50.63 DK Proj. Pts - 52.52
Small forward is real bad on this slate. As of this writing Lebron was the top points/$ guy in our system at the position (on FD) which is nuts considering his price tag. He's a good play mind you, but this is more an indictment of the position as a whole. It's a weaker class for sure and I suspect we will see Lebron in all lineups today short of some crazy news. Atlanta's a good defense for sure, but this is just as much about Lebron still coming in as a relative bargain.
Gordon Hayward - FD 6900 DK 7000
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 33.29 DK Proj. Pts - 35.23
Utah's firmly in the playoff hunt and is incentivized to play their starters as much as possible with every win meaning something. Hayward's been running like crazy playing 40 in regulation and 39 two games before against Minny. He's not a huge ceiling guy but I don't mind the safety on him if the Jazz need to run him for long stretches. He can score, but Hayward will pitch in along the rest of the stat sheet. Minnesota allows more than league average scoring to opposing small forwards and Andrew Wiggins isn't a fantastic defender.
Rudy Gay - FD 6000 DK 6500
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 28.49 DK Proj. Pts - 29.75
Oof, I know, I know. This one is tough to stomach, but you need to understand that small forward is very weak and Gay is looking at a game without Boogie on the court. I know in the short term that hasn't translated to fantasy production but historically Gay's usage rate goes way up with Cousins off the court. Rudy's price is such that he's not a massive risk if you think he sees a 15-18% uptick in shot attempts and minutes around 35. I can deal with him in the mid 6K range if that's the story. But he isn't a lock for me like he's been before with Cousins out of the lineup.
POWER FORWARD
Alex Len - FD 6500 DK 6000
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 33.31 DK Proj. Pts - 33.9
Do you believe in the recent minutes? If you do then Len is a clear play tonight against the Wizards. In his last two games he's averaged 37 per and a 15/14 line. In a game against a lightning quick Washington team you'd be looking at a lot of volume from Len if he's going to play most of the game. The problem is trusting the minutes. The Suns jockey these things around all the time and they are anything but safe. I'm more than willing to take the risk because even in the low 30's he's got a decent floor. Price isn't completely in line with a guy who could play close to 40.
Derrick Williams - FD 3600 DK 3500
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 22.96 DK Proj. Pts - 24.31
This is obviously only if Kristaps Porzingis were to sit again. Zinger was ruled out early on Wednesday and I would put him more in the doubtful range. Derrick Williams grabbed the start, played 35 minutes and went 15/8. That's more than enough to pay off these prices and he'd be basically in the must start range if he were running with the varsity again. Take a wait and see approach on this one.
Kevin Love - FD 6800 DK 7200
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 34.34 DK Proj. Pts - 36.83
Derrick Favors - FD 7100 DK 6700
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 35.07 DK Proj. Pts - 35.52
I don't mind the prices on either of these guys in games that should stay close-ish. Not over the moon about either, but both Atlanta and Minnesota allow more than average fantasy production to the opposing power forward position. Love playing third banana on the team is always a little dicey with his production and Favors has a tendency to disappear from time-to-time. But both rate out well in these matchups and are a tick below the upper tier.
CENTER
Kosta Koufos - FD 3900 DK 4100
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.23 DK Proj. Pts - 23.63
With Boogie set to sit this one out we should see plenty of Koufos in this matchup. The last two times Boogie's sat Koufos has played minutes in the mid 30's and averaged a 13/11. He's coming very cheap all around and will be one of the more popular plays on this slate. The price really can't be passed up on and there's recent evidence to suggest his minutes are safe in this kind of scenario. Not the best matchup against Miami, but that's negligible considering the other factors.
Marcin Gortat - FD 6400 DK 6400
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 32.78 DK Proj. Pts - 33.33
How about another guy from this game? Why not? Gortat's price has stuck in this range because the Wiz have been forced to go small late game in order to make up points against the Warriors and Kings. I don't think that's going to be the case tonight and I think you see him play in the low 30's at least. Gortat should be able to get to value just with the pace of the game even with a tougher matchup down low against Tyson Chandler. Like I said at the top, I'm all about stacking this game.
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- John Wall, Jordan Clarkson: (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
77 Visitor Comments
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I’m having a pretty decent night so far, with the lone exception of Aaron Gordon, who I stupidly decided was a better play than Kevin Love. Oof. Anyways, I’m surprised Batum isn’t listed. He did put up 49 against the 76ers just a few days ago.
This is my early, early early lineup
Wall
Payton
Beal
Hood
Melo
Batum
Favors
WCS
Koufos
I’m sure I’m not the only one who scored a Monster ticket so no pressure on these picks 😉
WCS is most likely to be chalky. He’ll probably find a home in my lineups. Gay is also due for a non horrible game lol. But Hayward is much better if you can find the money
Agreed he might be a popular play. My issue with him is simply about price now. He’s no longer a punt play and doesn’t start with Boogie out. Don’t mind him but I think there’s some risk.
If Favors sits Hayward is straight chalk probably Hood to for me.
Curious to see what Cleveland does with a back to back and then another game on Sunday.
Hey good lineup last knight DFSR!
Don’t forget about Batum! I see he doesn’t have a good rate in the optimizer either! He plays better at home and just dropped 49 fdp on this exact team. Ijs 🙂
To all the jerks who feel the need to come on here and bash the picks “Nice call on Portis”, no one forces you to put these guys in your lineup. They are merely recommendations, but ultimately it’s your money and you have final say. Use the recommendations as a guideline, but also do your own research and come up with your own conclusions. That’s all.
Can someone tell me what the optimum LU scored last night on FD? I was scared off of RW and ran with the optimum that had IT/Lillard at PG which was fail
The Westbrook lineup scored 305 which was an easy 50/50 cash. You’re right, the non-RW lineup got killed mostly thanks to an incredibly horrible shooting night from Lillard. I played both lineups so broke even on FD
At what time did you consider the “optimal” to be locked? It sometimes changes right up to tip. How late does one have to (or can one) check?
Zachary, it was 383 with RW and Rivers at PG position
Jared, I noticed whenever a player plays a team back to back they never do as well as the first game… I have been bit by it several times. First game they put up 40-50 points and then they play same team again next night and put up barely 20. Just beware
Is anyone else having loading problems with the fanduel pro optimizer?
What’s up withe lineup optimized? It not working.
Bobby Portis killed my tourney, but I did finish 55 out of 600 on my cash game!! Thanks Doug and all the DSFR gang and everyone on here!! Love it!
optimizer is broken i think
I’m having trouble with the optimizer also
Ran with the early optimal for double ups on fd and ended with
324 score. Pretty much nailed the projections.
Any update on the optimizer? Trying to sneak in some time before the boss gets in
This site is pretty much the lone site on the entire internet that my company doesn’t have blocked. It’s how I found it…did a google search and kept clicking till I found something the blocker would let me access. Very glad this was the site I could get into! I love it.
Hey everyone. We are experiencing some issues this AM with the optimizer. May be something to do with us rolling out and integrating our MLB optimal lineups this morning. Working on it and hope to have it corrected this morning.
Thanks Doug. Question- Does the optimizer have any edits for a GPP vs cash tourney? New too pro. And loving it. Cashed 4 out 7 on the 5$ layup last night and all would have hit on a 50-50. Customer for life here.
Thanks so much for the nice words. It doesn’t have a distinct feature between GPP and 50/50, no. We are working on adding upside and floor projections which will help sort some of that out.
Yes, I am a new user to pro also. In three days, my FD bankroll went up $560! Thanks!
Last few night have been great! Keep it up guys! Side note, I have been crushing FD and completely tanking in DK. Anyone else or just me
Yup that sounds about right. Last couple of DK nights been bubble or just a bit below.
How can I tell if I have the regular tool or pro tool?
Yea that can get hard to figure out as a noob. I signed up yesterday and it still prompts you to sign up for pro even though you are (assuming you spent the 30$). When youre in the optimizer, if it says DFSR Pro above the filter games, youre good.
Ok thanks, that was my confusion too! I keep seeing the ads to upgrade so then I am thinking am I paying for something I didn’t get… Thanks again for the clarification Ben!
Only had pro for 2 nights and won $$$ on both. Trying to learn how to do better with GPPs versus 50/50s. any advice would be helpful. I highly recommend the pro. Its been great so far.
Currently just a classic user but considering upgrading to pro. Does anyone know if you can get the free trial to the pro if you’re already subscribed to the classic?
I don’t know how you can leave out Kemba Walker on the PG picks…Kemba has always been better at home as seen by his career splits and the only worry would be the blowout factor vs Philly….Kemba is 2,000 cheaper than Wall is and it’s not like Phoenix is a great team either where that Wash/Pho game could be a butt kicking too…..Kemba even in 25 minutes if the game does get ugly could easily hit value at 45 where he needs to be….philly dead last (no surprise) vs the point the past 10 games
Taylor, I dont think you can. But I’ll just say. It works.
The actual optimizer it self, functionally, is not working right now. but thats beating a dead horse at this point 😉
Folks: Can anybody make recommendations of “building your bank roll”? I am new to Daily fantasy. I’ve been playing for a couple of weeks, but can’t seem to make a whole lot of progress. How much do you guys wager each night? How many different lineups do you submit? Any help would be appreciated! Thanks!
We are planning a series on this. As a general rule I break down bankroll management like this.
Given night – 5-10% of bankroll
Of that 5-10% break up buyins like this:
40% – Double ups (50/50 games)
40% – H2Hs (nothing over $10 games if selecting)
10% – multipliers (3x, 4x, etc)
10% – big tournaments (Gpps)
I would like to ass to that question. How many lineups should I enter from the optimizer? Should I only play the optimal lineup in all of my games or should I play like 2/3 lineups from yhevoptimizer?
The amount to wager is obviously up to what the player can afford,I usually play 25-35 LUs a night on multiple sites and spend $60-$80 a night ….. I usually go heavy in using an obvious play and then get together about 5-10 viable punts who have high points per dollar expectations and spread them out and insert where they fit in well….I don’t use the same LU in more than 1 or 2 since this is the time of year where coaches make Bizarre moves before and during the game and you can’t afford to have that one dud ruin your whole evening so I avoid that scenario.
I usually cap at 50$ and max out at 10 5 $ teams. But Im still trying to figure out the correct number that works for me. I generally like to have at least 8 lineups in a GPP. Some guys have a lot more than that. Ive been going with a core of 3 or 4 guys and 8-10 iterations from there
How does this lineup look for tourney lineup on dk.
Dragic
Beal
Derrick Williams
Millsap
Valcunias
Wall
Z Bo
Koufos
I don’t like beal he always seems to screw me over but he has to tear bookers weak d up right
Personally I think Pope is a better play than Beal and he is $300 cheaper and gets tons of minutes per game and is facing a Dallas defense that is worse than Phoenix defending the 2 the past 2 weeks and have been top 10 bad all season long..not to forget that the Dal/Det game could also be very close as I think it will.
Carmelo geek freek or Lebron? I’m down to the last opening slot on SF I’m not sure
I had several 330+ lineups. Great night last night for stars and bargains
Gerry, for what it’s worth…
I use Ben’s approach above, except i usually play a little lower stakes. I go 3-5 lineups in GPP’s, $3 per entry, with a core of anywhere from 2-5 or more guys depending on the slate. These “core” guys for me are the ones that i feel very confident in exceeding value. For me, that was Aldrich and Crawford last night. Then i make iterations based on the game scripts that i think i can predict for the night. Tonight i like Alex Len, Brandon Knight (mentioned in the article) and Trey Lyles if Favors sits. Then i’ll fill out the remaining slots with various iterations. One for sure that i’ll play is a GSW/BOS game that stays close where i’m playing Klay (assume Avery Bradley hounds Curry all night), Dray, and Isaiah Thomas. Then i’ll have a few other iterations based on high scoring games that i think will play out.
Anyway, i like this kind of discussions so would be curious to hear other’s thoughts as well. I’m not particularly good. I’m sure many on this site do far better than myself. But i’m overall up about $150 over the last month of using this strategy.
When you pay up for the optimizer is it only for basketball ? That’s the only one that works for me and it has been on FIRE !!! Do you have to pay a separate charge for each sport ?
All sports under same payment. MLB hopefully coming today. Issues with optimizer may have to do with that piece. Developers working on it now.
Anyone have thoughts on Brook Lopez tonight? His game log shows him beating up his brother to the tune of +6 fantasy points over his season averages. Seems like a nice play for 40+ points at $7k salary, especially with the team on the 2nd night of a back to back where he rested and no one else did.
Kelly, I believe its for all sports but I could be wrong. And it is fire. Would be nice if it was working right now. Perhaps shut down the baseball optimizer seeing as we have ‘pressing’ matter to attend to
Brook screwed me a couple days ago. Broke habit and put him in 6/8 lineups when he gave us a lovely 6.2 points. So Im weary of him. Usually that means he’ll go off so draft with confidence lol.
Can anybody load the optimizer? Won’t work for me this morning
Yes. Apologies, we are experiencing issues this AM and are working on it now. Hope to have it corrected shortly. For now, can click back to at the top of the page to “Switch to the Standard Tool” to build sample lineups. Will let you know when we have it fixed.
Pete, its down right now. Probably because they just incorporated the baseball optimizer. Hopefully they have it fixed before lunch haha
Hey gang the optimizer is back up
Nice thanks Marcus!!! And thanks Doug for the updates!!!! Now time to talk strategy. who is the one guy that is the difference between cashing and winning a GPP tonight? Im talking high ceiling, high value, and low usage%
Ben did you go to Ryerson University?
Looks like we are back up everyone. For time being at least. Thanks for your patience. We are continuing to monitor and will be pushing MLB out later today as well.
If there’s intermittent functionality issues, rest assured the development team is working all day today on different aspects of the site.
Brook and Robin Lopez celebrate their birthdays today playing against each other.
Should be fun to watch. These two guys crack me up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYVT3QqHQiA
http://nypost.com/2015/11/28/nba-twins-brook-and-robin-lopez-cant-live-together-because-their-cats-hate-each-other/
It’s a new day! ✌?️
Why would Tyler Johnson show up with any points tonight?
UTIL Tyler Johnson 19.20 $3,000 6.40 SAC 28
do you think T. Robinson will get any play tonight
Folks: Thank you for the advice on “building bankroll”. I appreciate it!
Call me crazy, but I got a really strange Feeling that Giannis from the BUCKS is gonna go off tonight…Just saying….
Doug, is there any reason why the subscription entry will not accept my method of payment? There are no issues with my card or account. I am trying to subscribe to the Pro Optimizer, but it will not accept my method of payment. I was really looking forward to using it.
I only run one lineup and enter it each day in a bunch of GPPS. Thinking has always been when I win I win every GPP I enter. There’s some really advanced math about multiple entries that unless you are doing it the right way you’re basically betting against yourself. There seems to be two schools of thought. GPPS which are more like the stock market and CASH games which are more like a savings account. You can make money doing both if you know what you’re doing.
Thomas, i know you are absolutely right about multiple lineups, even though that’s how i operate (i’m mostly just treading water – aka break even or slightly positive – waiting/hoping to hit the big one). Do you have a source or link to something describing this math though? I’d be interested to try and learn more about how that works. No worries if not, just thought i’d ask.
Just bought the DFSR PRO and i absolutely love it. Cashed out last night with 325.5 and i highly recommend everyone to try the 3 day trial!
How much do the optimizer cost?
What do you guys think for a punt play tonight and is LeBron James I must play?
If James is on the court, you want to play him.
i want to enter some single entry gpp’s tonight. how do you guys use the optimizer to to create a ggp lineup? i’m a new pro owner and i would love any kind of help
Thoughts on Middleton over Booker now Knight is doubtful?
Looks like Brandon Knight is doubtful tonight. That right?
Brook Lopez or Drummond?
Any word on Teletovic?? Time is winding down
Mirza Teletovic (illness) is not on the injury report for Friday against the Wizards.
He’ll be good to go after an upset stomach kept him out on Wednesday. With Jon Leuer (ankle) out, Teletovic should be a lock for minutes in the 25-30 range tonight. He’s worth owning in standard leagues and serves as a target in DFS. Apr 1 – 4:16 PM