Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces  - Shell Houston Open

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Shell Houston Open

Golf Club of Houston - Humble, TX

Par 72 - 7,441 Yards

If you were able to sneak away from family on Sunday you were treated to some fantastic golf. Jason Day took over the World #1 by winning the Dell Match Play on Sunday. He beat Rory McIlroy 1 up in the semi finals then beat Louis Oosthuisen in convincing fashion, 5 & 4 to take home the hardware. He fought back pain all week and nearly withdrew before the tournament even started. Nothing new for Day who has won while fighting pain and adversity many times in the past. He has now won back to back weeks(last weeks Arnold Palmer Invitational Champion) and has six wins in his last 13 worldwide starts. It was also his second Match Play Championship in three years.

The Puerto Rico Open was also going on last weekend and was the featured tournament on this site, only because it was the tournament DraftKings was running for daily fantasy. It is because of DFS that I would even consider following this tournament. Thank god for DFS because we were treated to another great finish this Sunday. Tony Finau broke through for his first PGA Tour win after a playoff victory against Steve Marino. He had a chance to close it out on the 18th hole in regulation but missed a 6 footer which forced the playoff. He kept his composure, pushing the playoff to a third hole where he made a terrific bunker shot to set up the birdie that would crown him the champion. Check out the recap from PGATour.com below:

 

This week the PGA Tour heads to Humble, Texas for the 2016 Shell Houston Open. It is the last tournament before the Masters but we still have a pretty good field of players which includes 12 of the Top 25 players in the world. The Golf Club of Houston is a Par 72, Rees Jones design, that stretches 7,441 yards. The winning score has been -15 or -16 in each of the last four years but can easily get to -20 in the right conditions. Those conditions? Wind. Yes it looks to be a huge factor again this year Friday being projected as the worst of all four days. When wind is a factor I start by looking at long hitters first as they can gain a huge advantage on the long holes. You will also want to find golfers who hit lots of greens and give themselves plenty of birdie opportunities. Even with the winds last year the winning score was -16 so you will need to score. As always, we will heavily weigh Strokes Gained: Tee Green and Putting along with Proximity(most heavily proximity from 175+).

Below are the main stats I am weighting on the cheatsheet this week. Up to 10 PGA Tour stats are used each week. The cheatsheet also provides last 5 years of tournament history and last 5 tournaments of current form. I have also added a tab showing the course layout and yardages as well as a breakdown of the Top 10 and key stats from last years WGC Cadillac Championship. A new addition this week is an overall weighting of Stats, Course History and Current Form.

 

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Ball Striking
• Good Drive %
• Driving Distance
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards
• Par 4 Scoring Average
• Par 5 Scoring Average
• Birdie or Better %
• Strokes Gained: Putting

I will again this week be interacting through the comments section below and ready to answer any questions about Fantasy Golf or anything you wanna talk about. Join the conversation. And as always, I am available on Twitter @Jager_bombs9.

 High End Targets ($9,000+)

Dustin Johnson
Vegas Odds - 14/1
Draftkings - $10,700
Fantasy Aces - $6,100

Finally, DraftKings separates the the top tier with Spieth $1,900 more than the next golfer. While he will make a contrarian GPP pick this week, I just don't fully trust his game yet. Not to say I won't have some exposure but not as much as DJ who ranks higher in my model and comes at a $2,200 discount. He bombs the ball, kills Par 4's and 5's and makes tons of birdies. His form has also been good lately with four Top 20's and two Top 5 finishes. He missed the cut here in his last trip in 2014 but finished 4th the year before. He is ready to break through and could very well do so this weekend.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 13
• Ball Striking - 45
• Driving Distance - 5
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 174
• Proximity from over 200 Yards - 127
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 20
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 14
• Birdie or Better % - 2
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 92

 

 

Phil Mickelson
Vegas Odds - 18/1
Draftkings - $10,500
Fantasy Aces - $5,650

What a story "Lefty" has been this year. He took on a bit of a change in his swing as has reaped the benefits with three Top 10's in six events(not counting the Match Play). He ranks #1 in my overall model which looks at course history, current form and stats together. He is 6th in SG:T2G, ranks 4th on the Par 3's, 12th on the Par 4's and 11th on the Par 5's. There seems to be no weakness in his game at the moment. In the last five years here at Golf Club of Houston he has not finished worse than 17th and won the event back in 2011. Expect another strong finish from Phil as he gets ready to challenge for another Green Jacket at the Masters next weekend.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 6
• Ball Striking - 59
• Driving Distance - 41
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 88
• Proximity from over 200 Yards - 92
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 12
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 11
• Birdie or Better % - 11
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 14

 

 

J.B. Holmes
Vegas Odds - 25/1
Draftkings - $9,700
Fantasy Aces - $5,300

Last years defending champ makes a great value again this year at a salary under $10K on DraftKings. He is the 4th ranked golfer in my model this week. He is a bomber(ranked 3rd in Driv Dist) who gets a lot of birdies and crushes the Par 4's. He lead the field last year shooting a combined -12 on the Par 4 holes throughout the week. Besides his win here last year he has a 12th in 2014 and an 8th back in 2012. He didn't make it out of the group round at the Match Play but that isn't really concerning as it is a totally different format. He did struggle at the Cadillac with a T59 but hadn't finished worse than 24th in the previous seven tournaments. For this reason I will be using him in GPP only this week.

 

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 39
• Ball Striking - 78
• Driving Distance - 3
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 139
• Proximity from Over 200 Yards - 42
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 53
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 127
• Birdie or Better % - 38
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 110

 

Also Consider - Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $9,000)

Ryan Palmer
Vegas Odds - 80/1
Draftkings - $8,200
Fantasy Aces - $5,000

If you are looking for a safe choice and staple in cash games it will be Ryan Palmer this week. Since missing the cut at the season opening FRYS.com Open, he has not missed a cut in eight straight events. He doesn't come with the upside you are looking for in GPP with no Top 10's this year but at a low $8K price tag you don't need a win. He is a bomber who has been excellent with his long irons from 175+ and ranks 4th in Par 5 scoring this season. Despite missing two of four cuts in the last five years in this tournament he is coming off a 7th in his last trip back in 2014.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 44
• Ball Striking - 22
• Driving Distance - 8
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 21
• Proximity from Over 200 Yards - 57
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 112
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 4
• Birdie or Better % - 27
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 134

 

 

Scott Piercy
Vegas Odds - 66/1
Draftkings - $7,700
Fantasy Aces - $4,800

Another excellent choice when looking for safe golfers for your cash lineups. In nine events this season he has made eight cuts with six Top 25's and one Top 10 finish. He is a terrific Ball Striker who scores on both the Par 4's and 5's and ranks 27th in Birdie or Better percentage. He has made the cut here in all three chances in the last five years highlighted by a Top 10 in last years event. He ranks 15th overall in my model and comes at a very affordable price. I will have a ton of exposure in all formats.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 113
• Ball Striking - 33
• Driving Distance - 33
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 154
• Proximity from Over 200 Yards - 164
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 69
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 52
• Birdie or Better % - 27
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 118

 

 

John Huh
Vegas Odds - 80/1
Draftkings - $7,200
Fantasy Aces - $4,650

He is the first golfer in my picks to not be a long hitter but still ranks very high in my model this week(13th). He makes up for his lack of distance with accuracy both off the tee and approaching/around the green. He has made the cut here in three of his last four events including two finishes inside the Top 17. Don't overthink this one at this price.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 55
• Ball Striking - 91
• Driving Distance - 173
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 94
• Proximity from Over 200 Yards - 101
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 112
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 52
• Birdie or Better % - 101
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 106

 

Also Consider - Harris English, Patton Kizzire

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Chez Reavie
Vegas Odds - 150/1
Draftkings - $6,700
Fantasy Aces - $4,500

Another golfer who lacks distance off the tee but is deadly accurate Tee to Green. He ranks 30th in overall proximity, 66th in Prox from 175-200 and 52 in Prox form 200+. He is also an elite Scrambler(ranked 3rd) and is also Top 20 in Bogey Avoidance. The upside is limited as his best finish in three events in the last five years has been a 31st but he has made the cut all three times. At a price tag under $7K i will definitely consider for cash games this week.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 26
• Ball Striking - 73
• Driving Distance - 145
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 66
• Proximity from Over 200 Yards - 52
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 53
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 93
• Birdie or Better % - 132
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 158

 

 

Jason Gore
Vegas Odds - 150/1
Draftkings - $5,700
Fantasy Aces - $4,150

If stars and scrubs is your thing in GPP formats it is wise to take a flyer on a player under the $6K mark. There isn't always great options down there(hence why they are bottom of the barrel) but this week I feel we have one in Jason Gore. He ranks high in my model and finished 19th here in 2013, his only trip to the golf Club of Houston in the last five years. He has had a very consistent start to the season making nine cuts in 10 events and coming off his best finish, a T11 at the Valspar Championship. If you want to take a shot with Spieth this week, pairing him with Gore is a great start.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 130
• Ball Striking - 98
• Driving Distance - 155
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 39
• Proximity from Over 200 Yards - 5
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 34
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 159
• Birdie or Better % - 70
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 126

 

Also Consider - Jhonattan Vegas, Greg Owen

 

Shell Houston Open Update Thread

 

 

Defender J.B. Holmes WD from the Houston Open https://t.co/MvhekXsg27

— Rotoworld Golf News (@RotoworldGolf) March 31, 2016

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Shell Houston Open? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.