Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/29/16

Hello, DFSR family! You may (or may not) have noticed that I was absent this last Friday and Saturday, and that our team of writers picked up the slack. You probably (didn't) miss me - and don't worry, I missed you, too. But we were busy welcoming in a member of our actual family! We had another son in the wee hours of Saturday morning, and Doug was gracious enough to get writers together to cover me in my brief paternity leave. Well, I'm back! So - I imagine stuff has been happening in the NBA. I've researched a bunch and have gotten as caught up as I can, so let's get to work making some picks!

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POINT GUARD

Kyrie Irving - FD 7000 DK 6900
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 39.64 DK Proj. Pts - 41.69
LeBron is getting a day of rest, and that means a lot of offensive workload will shift to Kyrie and Kevin today. Irving has had a ridiculous 42% usage with LeBron off the court this season, and while it's tough to imagine that sustaining itself over the course of a whole game here, the point remains the same - he's not priced in a way that assumes James won't be out there. Irving is a must play for me tonight, even if he sucked the last time one of the big 3 was out, and even if it's not an ideal match-up with Patrick Beverley.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10600 DK 10300
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 51.92 DK Proj. Pts - 53.71
As of this writing, Wesbrook has a 17/6/5 in the first half against the tough Raptors. I mean, that's pretty awesome, considering the Raptors have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. Reggie Jackson is not nearly as tough a match-up in this one, but Drummond's dominant rim protection could temper Westbrook's projection somewhat. Still, Russ gets his in so many different ways that he might be one of the few big money guys that is close to "match-up proof." If you're deciding between him and Curry, our projection system thinks this one is easy.

Ish Smith - FD 6800 DK 5900
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 33.85 DK Proj. Pts - 34.75
We've gotten back to back proper Ish games, and it's been a beautiful thing. When Ish is right, he's getting into the lane and causing havoc, and he did exactly that in leading the charge in two surprisingly competitive games against Portland and Golden State. Smith is one of the last NBA caliber players left on the Philly roster, and while they are at risk of a blowout in any given game, the Hornets are a better match-up than his last two games at any rate. I'm not sure any Sixer can be called safe at this point, but Ish clearly has big upside.

Elfrid Payton - FD 5700 DK 5800
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 27 DK Proj. Pts - 27.51
The Elfrid on the Shelfrid (sorry) is back to playing starter's minutes in Orlando, and has now put up three very solid games in a row in not so great match-ups. The key number for Payton here is the assists - he's had the ball in his hands a ton recently, and has been involved in basically every Magic possession. Now, the wise man will tell you that a lot of that is due to Oladipo's absence. That's true. But the above projections actually assume Oladipo will play his regular minutes. If the Magic star sits again in this one, Payton might become something like a must play. Either way, it's a very soft match-up with the Nets, who have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. Keep an eye on that 'Dipo news, though.

Keep an eye on Shane Larkin. If he's starting again, he's dramatically underpriced.

 

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 11000 DK 10400
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 53.98 DK Proj. Pts - 57.03
Picking between Westbrook and Harden today is like picking between your children. Which is to say, you diplomatically pretend you like them all the same, while you meanwhile have some pretty obvious favorites. Well, Harden's mine. What he's been doing in Houston recently is actually sort of a joke - he's played an average of 42 minutes per game in his last 4, and has averaged 57 fantasy points per game in that time. That's... ridiculous. And today he'll spend most of his time against JR Smith (bless his heart, but he can't hang, here). I'm trusting the minutes and the through the roof usage - it's hard for me to imagine a 50/50 lineup without him, especially given how rotten the position is today.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 5600 DK 5300
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 25.11 DK Proj. Pts - 27.49
It's damned hard to find anything resembling safety at the shooting guard position today, so I'll submit one Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as the second name in this list. As an aside, I can't write "Kentavious Caldwell-Pope" without hearing, in my mind's ear, his mother scolding him by calling him his entire mouthful of a name. Anyway. KCP missed one game due to injury, and then stormed back with a 21/7/4 against the Hornets. He's fine. The Thunder are essentially a league average match-up here, but the up and down pace of the game could leave Detroit with an additional need for long range shooting. KCP should get high 30s minutes assuming this one doesn't get out of control, and seems like a very reasonable investment given the low price point.

J.R. Smith - FD 4300 DK 4400
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 21.53 DK Proj. Pts - 24.59
And, hey, let's not sleep on JR! While Kyrie is dealing with the relentless Patrick Beverley, Smith will be up against Harden's strict offense-first defensive approach. The Rockets have allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, but that number climbs to #3 if you just count the last 10 games. Smith, meanwhile, is very affordably priced, and should be in line for his full run of minutes here. Given that the Rockets have capable defenders at some other positions, I suspect Smith is a sneaky high floor play here on a points per dollar basis.

Also considered: Courtney Lee. I might like him even better than Smith for safety purposes.

Baseball season is almost here. Check out the bottom of the article for our MLB ebook on setting daily fantasy baseball lineups as well as our MLB DFS strategy articles coming in the next couple weeks.

SMALL FORWARD

Evan Fournier - FD 5500 DK 5000
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 25.69 DK Proj. Pts - 28.08
The position is absolutely abysmal, today. I'm starting to feel that way about the whole slate quite frankly. Which is a shame, because after a few days off, I'm itching to get back in the action. The case for Fournier, then? Well, Fournier's recent performance is undoubtedly colored by the fact that the Magic have been involved in 4 blowouts in a row. In the two games prior, Fournier played 36 and 37 minutes. This game with the Nets should be closer than when the Magic play real teams, so that's what we're relying on here. I'm prepared to close my eyes and just send Fournier's name in, especially given how bad this slate is. I like him better if Oladipo is out, and in that case, I'd consider Mario Hezonja as well.

Marcus Morris - FD 5500 DK 5200
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 25.47 DK Proj. Pts - 27.54
What passes for safety at small forward, today. Markieff's brother's safety comes straight from his huge minutes workload - Marcus has played an average of 37.5 minutes per game in his last 4, and has put up almost exactly 5x points per dollar per game in those 4 games. Durant is not an ideal match-up for anyone to be sure, but Morris does enough around his scoring that I think he can weather a somewhat tough match-up here. He looks like a good spend-down spot for 50/50s.

Otto Porter - FD 5500 DK 5400
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 24.4 DK Proj. Pts - 25.28
This one isn't for the faint of heart, but bear with me for a second. First of all, the Warriors are very likely to run the Wiz out of the gym. I get it. But, if the game stays a little closer than expected (at least heading into the fourth), there's a recipe for Porter to have a huge game. First of all, Porter rebounds the position very well (as evidenced by two double digit rebounds games in his last 4), and if the game is close, it will only be because there are a lot of missed shots. Second, Porter also shoots the 3 reasonably well, and is given the keys to do so more when the Wizards need it. With Klay Thompson shadowing Brad Beal, more of that load should fall to Porter. Now, Otto could get skunked here, but there's also a chance he's the highest points per dollar play at the position. You've been alerted!

Also considered: Harrison Barnes. With Iguodala out, Barnes has been the most consistent Warrior in terms of playing time simply because they really don't have another small forward. In an up and down game with Washington, he should be a safe play once again.

POWER FORWARD

Kevin Love - FD 6900 DK 6800
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 35.17 DK Proj. Pts - 37.85
No LeBron on Tuesday, and that means we'll take a healthy serving of Kevin Love in our lives for sure. Love doesn't get as dramatic a usage bump as Kyrie with LeBron off, but that might be a little different tonight. Irving has an objectively tough match-up with Patrick Beverley (who will undoubtedly trail him, while Harden focuses on JR), whereas Love will get a mix and match group that's allowed the very most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season. Love's been more than solid since his one game absence, and I love him here.

Thaddeus Young - FD 7400 DK 6700
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 33.28 DK Proj. Pts - 34.59
It's interesting - I had done a write-up of Thad before checking the results of the Heat game, and I had gone on and on about how bad he'd been in the last 3 games, and how this was dependent on us not worrying that anything larger might be going on. Well, Young put up 40+ fantasy points against the Heat, and had a stretch of three games where he averaged 45 fantasy points before the 3 recent duds - so it just goes to show you that it's silly to get too wrapped up in super-recent performance. The Magic have allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season, and what's more, they're bad enough that the Nets should be able to keep it close enough for Young to play his minutes. I actually think he's plenty safe, here.

Marvin Williams - FD 5700 DK 5700
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 25.56 DK Proj. Pts - 27.72
I looked at 4 or 5 different guys for this final spot before landing on Marvin. Williams put up a huge game in his last outing, where he played 34 minutes and put up 37 fantasy points against the Bucks. Williams had been playing a steady diet of 32 minutes per game before getting derailed by a minor ankle injury, and it appears as though that's where his minutes area headed once again. It's a great match-up with the foul-happy back-ups of the already awful Sixers, and he should be a great play that not very many people are on today.

Keep an eye on Nerlens Noel. If he sits again, Carl Landry is once again a great play.

 

CENTER

Ian Mahinmi - FD 5100 DK 4900
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 24.45 DK Proj. Pts - 24.87
Mahinmi put up an average of 35 fantasy points in his last 2 contests, and should have a nice match-up with a minutes-restricted and gimpy Pau Gasol here. And it's not like Gasol was having a great defensive season anyway. He's been defending far more field goals at the rim this year (hence the blocks increase), but he's actually been as ineffective as ever - the Bulls have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. Mahinmi is capable of disappearing, yes, but on a night where I'd love to get a bunch of expensive guys like Love, Irving, Westbrook, and Harden - I'll have to save up somewhere!

Brook Lopez - FD 8100 DK 7300
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 38.95 DK Proj. Pts - 39.5
If saving at center doesn't float your boat, there's always Lopez. The Magic will likely be without Vucevic in this one, and the back-up unit has been getting torched recently - allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers in the last 10 games. BroLo is capable of a monster, and has been pretty consistent recently. And I'm honestly not sure who people are going to roll with today outside of Mahinmi. Maybe a little Andre Drummond? But man, I'm not a huge fan of investing that kind of money in a guy who could play 29 minutes.

For wild upside: Yes, Drummond. If he gets the upper end of his minutes (35, say) he could easily be the play of the day at the position. But way too erratic for 50/50s, for me.

Another interesting Wizards Hail-Mary: Marcin Gortat. He's been terrific recently, and if you believe he gets his minutes, he could put up a big total in the same way a guy like Al Horford did earlier this season.

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