Oklahoma City Thunder's Kevin Durant, right, and Russell Westbrook celebrate their team's 100-99 win against the Los Angeles Clippers in an NBA basketball game, Monday, Dec. 21, 2015, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
I'm sitting here writing this on a pretty solid Brandon Knight tilt. Last night he was a near last minute scratch because of an upset stomach. This is the kind of news that makes DFS tough to stomach (pun intended) sometimes. It happens and we move on. If you play long enough it will happen more than you'd like. But it's the nature of the game and it happens. We forge ahead. (Unless you didn't roster Knight, then you were near automatic money in cash games.)
Today it's a standard Saturday slate with a bunch of potential value on the board. We'll be keeping a close ear out for injury news tonight as a couple potential pieces will have a domino effect.
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Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 54.18 DK Proj. Pts - 55.88
He's a must start and I won't hear anything else about it. The Spurs could be without Kawhi again which makes them a significantly worse (yet still very good) team. And this could be a real showdown of a game. There are a bunch of ways to save on this slate which means I'll take Westbrook's raw points all day and it isn't particularly close for me. There's no opening line on this one mostly because the Spurs are a question mark right now, but considering it's in OKC and the Thunder are playing real well right now you can bet this one stays close. Westbrook all day.
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 34.37 DK Proj. Pts - 36.23
Rose is a fantastic play on DraftKings if this is where you think his minutes are trending. He's played 32, 33 and 39 in his last three and if he's projected for run in the mid 30's then his $6K tag on DK is fantastic. He's taking about 15 shots per game at the minimum and throwing in just enough assists to get the job done. Orlando is well below average against point guards this season in scoring and Rose should be able to exploit Elfrid Payton on the offensive end of things.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 43.23 DK Proj. Pts - 46.38
He's more of a FanDuel play based on the pricing. Lillard's facing a Philly team allowing worse than league average scoring and assists from the opposing point guard and is coming at a price drop. Lillard's FanDuel salary's dipped some in the short term making him an advantageous play if you think you're buying near the bottom. I think that's the case here and he should have plenty of opportunity to get to the hole with Philly lacking much interior presence.
Strongly consider Tim Frazier if Holiday sits again.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 25.75 DK Proj. Pts - 27.96
The Jazz are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Thunder on Thursday that saw them lose by more than 20. Don't expect it again here tonight. The Timberwolves are a fast-paced team who can get scored on early and often. This is the kind of game you want to roster Utah guys in considering it's an uptick in pace. Last night Bradley Beal torched Zach Lavine and Hood could be in the same position tonight with looks. He's a big minute guy in the right game and this one projects to stay close enough.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 32.27 DK Proj. Pts - 34.28
Assuming the Blazers don't blow the doors off of Philly, McCollum is in a good spot here. The Sixers are the sixth fastest team in the league and are bottom five in defense. They are allowing about 4% more scoring than league average to opposing shooting guards and McCollum's playing healthy minutes. Of course the Sixers need to keep the game close, but C.J.'s a solid mid-tier value.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 30.99 DK Proj. Pts - 34.22
The Suns open as about nine point dogs against the Celtics most likely because this game's at home for them. Phoenix is a somewhat feisty team at times and Booker is one of the reasons. Even with Brandon Knight back, Booker is still averaging a healthy volume of shots. That's good because most of his value comes from scoring and the minutes. Phoenix has no real interest in playing anyone else at the two and appear committed to getting Booker developmental minutes. He was averaging about 23/ game going into last night's affair with the Kings and should be in line for that tonight.
Consider Jrue Holiday if he's given a clean bill of health before this game.
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 48.13 DK Proj. Pts - 50.55
I'm all over Durant if Kawhi doesn't play. If Leonard is in there he could really put a hurting on KD defensively, but if the Spurs are without their superstar then that opens things up for OKC. Even the Grizzlies were able to hang with San Antonio last night and this would be an up and down game from the looks of things. Much like Westbrook, because there's so much potential value going in that rostering sat Westbrook, Durant and Lebron is more than doable if you're so inclined.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 32.1 DK Proj. Pts - 34.06
I kind of hate small forward on this slate. There are potentially some cheaper options you can consider depending on the various injury situations, but even those guys are far from safe. Like I said with Hood, Minnesota is a great team to target Utah guys against because the pace steps it up many notches and there should be plenty of scoring opportunities. Like Lavine, Wiggins isn't a great defender and opposing small forwards are able to score about 6% more than league average. Hayward's been a bit all over the map since missing a couple of games two weeks ago. The ceiling is decent but the floor is low for this guy. I wouldn't love him in a 50/50 game, but there's room for upside in this matchup.
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 21.53 DK Proj. Pts - 22.96
He's the cheap guy to run if Oladipo is out again tonight. Last night Mario played 37 minutes starting at the two but failed to deliver a ton even with all that run. He went 8/3/1 which just barely creeps to value, but I'd easily run him again tonight against the Bulls if I thought he'd see this much court time again. Keep an ear out for the Dipo news.
Consider Kyle Anderson if Kawhi sits again
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 32.14 DK Proj. Pts - 32.95
He got two quick fouls last night and it killed his first half minutes. He was such a monster start last night that it didn't effect the field too much because everyone had him. I'd be perfectly willing to go right back his way tonight if Chandler were sitting again. Leuer would be almost certain to draw the start again and his ownership levels would go down some because he "burned" so many people last night. That kind of recency bias sticks in people's minds and it would artificially devalue him. But his expectation would be right in line with last night's projections if the minutes were there. And if they are then he's a near must start.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 27.91 DK Proj. Pts - 28.6
Look, it's really never safe to start considering the Celtic big men minutes any kind of lock. But Amir's seen a ton of run lately and has averaged an 11/13/3 in his last two games with 34 minutes per. Tonight he gets a Phoenix front court getting beat on the boards by opposing fours and fives. This play on Amir is all about the price and opportunity. If you think he's Brad Stevens' go-to guy right now then you are golden. But Stevens has a history of jockeying these minutes around depending on matchup so I'm just a little wary.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 34.43 DK Proj. Pts - 35.5
Speaking of guys whose minutes aren't the surest thing in the world, Mr. Zinger fits into the same category. He's been seeing the court lately, but we all know that can disappear just as quickly. For the time being though the returns have been fantastic. His last four games have him averaging a 20/9 with some blocks thrown in. Not a great matchup against Cleveland but the price is low if you believe he's going to see the court like this.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 26.07 DK Proj. Pts - 26.49
With the Pelicans missing just about everyone the other night Ajinca saw it as his turn to become the focal point. He took a shot just about every time he touched the ball in the first half. It didn't always look pretty, but he ended with a 22/9 line that crushed his min prices. I'm not pencilling him in for that kind of production again, but the Pels could be forced to get him out there for big minutes again tonight considering how shorthanded they are.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 35.28 DK Proj. Pts - 35.88
Here's to hoping we can play Ajinca with reckless abandon because the rest of center is a minefield. Horford's last two games have seen him take a little dip in minutes thanks to sitting a bit more with odd rotations given up to Kris Humphries. But I think he's on the court more tonight to deal with Andre Drummond. That's speculation of course, but Detroit can go a little bigger than the last two teams Atlanta's faced. Again, I'm playing Ajinca (gulp), but Horford's in consideration.
Consider Tim Duncan
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View Comments
You can't consider Tim Duncan because the Spurs have already announced they'll be resting him Saturday.
I had a pretty good night despite the Brandon Knight and Jon Leur issues.
I've almost got this down to a fine art except for 1 idiot that puts up a dud. If I could figure out that issue I would be in the top 1% every other day, if not everyday.. so damn frustrating
That's funny- I feel exactly the same way. Except every day its a different guy with the dud.
Justin I feel the exact same way. Every single night I have a lineup that is one dud away from cashing in at over 250$. Making my money back but it's frustrating to not place high in a tourney.
Aldridge, Kawhi, Duncan, Parker, Manu all out for SPURS Saturday... Umm who's left? Lol who's scoring for them? Kyle Anderson? Patty mills? Danny Green? Kevin Martin? Boban at center? I'm very very very interested to see what you guys project for the Spurs!!! Gotta make up for "my tummy hurts toKNIGHT"
After thinking about it, wouldn't Westbrook and Durant be terrible plays since the Spurs are going with their backups? I know their backups are good but they're backups for a reason. They'll both probably be on the bench by the 4th quarter.
Yeah Erik I Totally Agree With What you're Saying
I understand this position, but on this slate with all of the value I think you are going to be hard-pressed to avoid these guys even with the possible blowout. You have to get the raw points from somewhere.
With that being said where would you rank Lebron tonight?
He's probably close to a must play on FanDuel simply because you can easily afford him and SF isn't a great position comparatively.
Doug - I'm not so crazy about Booker tonight,Especially when you want 6x for his salary- it seems like when you play players against Boston you want to go with the Bigs as they seem to handle most average smalls very well in terms of keeping their value down some unless its Elite talent like Westbrook or Curry or Harden for example. - I do think Leuer deserves another shot as you said if Tyson is out and I think Len is in play as well.
Yeah I'm off of Booker a bit with all this Spurs' news. Really rewired a lot of the picks.
You guys are no help at all.... And you to pay for this
No LeBron today? With a bad loss last time out and everyone on his back at the moment I'm feeling a big game
Yup I almost wrote him up and had I known at the time the Spurs would rest their whole team then he definitely would have been in there.
What happened to Kyle Anderson look last night? I was headed for a monster night but no love.
Irving out now too
I know he did everyone dirty last night, but I'm taking a chance on Brandon Knight again. Good matchup. If he sits, I can change him up with Kyrie Irving.