Welcome to the daily updates and injury news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock tonight.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
Updating our previous report!
Cousins bruised his knee in the 4th quarter against Chicago, and will miss this one. Rudy Gay has been the biggest usage beneficiary in the past - his usage jumping from 22% with Cousins playing to 27% without. It also would free up more minutes for Koufos and Cauley-Stein, who played 24 and 21 minutes respectively the last time Cousins missed a game. Rudy Gay is now something like a must for me, and Koufos becomes an interesting big tournament play. Darren Collison also got a big minutes bump in Boogie's last miss.
When he missed a stretch of games in early February, Stanley Johnson played some very effective mid-high 30 minute games. The Pistons have added a few guys since then, so it's not clear that he'll dive right in for that role here, but if he's named the starter he's a very attractive play for tonight's slates in a nice match-up with the Magic. Update: Johnson isn't getting the start. Darrun Hilliard is. I'm still bullish on Johnson's minutes, but not as much as before.
Seem like an anti-climactic way to start the article? It really isn't. The Lakers having Nance active has led to a 4-6 minute reduction for Julius Randle all season long, and while it's a nice match-up with the Suns, Randle logged just 26 uneventful minutes against them with Nance in the rotation just a week ago. I'll be keeping Randle out of my cash game lineups as a result.
I'm not sure you want to trust him given his relatively erratic performance and the recent illness, so the big news here is the usage he'll take away from LeBron and Kyrie. Probably doesn't make a difference for you if you're paying attention, but don't count on LeBron to put up 33/11/11 with Love back in the mix and Kyrie likely not as benched.
One of the biggest pieces of news on the day, somehow. Valanciunas was able to practice on Tuesday, and his return will mean a significant dip in playing time for the suddenly not-so-cheap Bismack Biyombo. Biyombo has a nice match-up with the C's if Valanciunas is a surprise scratch, but at this point it looks like JV is back.
Jason Thompson played decent minutes and was a great play on a near minimum salary against Orlando, but is obviously out of the picture with Patterson returning. I won't be playing Pat Pat either.
Updated reports:
A lot has changed in Philly since he went down, and Covington is such a versatile player that he could effect guys at all manner of positions - Isaiah Canaan, Jerami Grant, Hollis Thompson - all these guys are susceptible to minutes decreases tonight. Play them at your own risk.
Salah Mejri is starting
And he was pretty amazing on Sunday. Feels fairly insane to play him in a 50/50, but the upside is through the roof. With how thin the Mavs are right now, though, it's a very intriguing option.
Faried's absence has opened up playing time for Darrell Arthur in particular, but he's been a very up and down daily fantasy basketball commodity. Jusuf Nurkic has also seen increased opportunity, and has been a points-per-minute beast all season long. But yeah, we're mostly talking big tournament plays here, as the Nuggets situation is one of the least predictable from night to night.
He left Tuesday's game early, and while a shin bruise isn't really a huge concern, there's no telling what the Lakers will do here. If Russell does miss the game it should lead to more ball handling duties for Jordan Clarkson and Marcelo Huertas, both of whom would become very interesting plays from where I'm sitting. I'm assuming we won't know his status for the main slate, but it's certainly worth keeping an eye on either way.
He never returned for the 2nd half against Memphis, and Jon Leuer picked up 32 very effective minutes off the bench. If Chandler misses tonight, Leuer should be considered a high floor, high ceiling play appropriate for deployment in any contest.
It looks like it's only a mild sprain, but even the mildest of tweaks can be a problem this late in the season as teams begin to eye the playoffs. Dragic has been a lot more involved in the Heat offense since Chris Bosh went on the shelf, and his absence would mean a lot of the ball handling duties would need to be redistributed. Josh Richardson would be the chief beneficiary, with a bump to Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson as well.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
As a side note as well - a lot of this is subject to change on such a big slate. These are the ELGs as of noon EST.
Editor's note: These plays are just changing constantly with all the news rushing in. The system now prefers Rudy Gay to LeBron - but I don't want to change the below because I don't want to mislead people by changing it. Advice for tonight - don't finalize your lineups until minutes before lock!
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 46.71 DK Proj. Pts - 48.69
King James sees a big price jump on FanDuel, but stays as an every line-up guy, even with Love returning. The sites seem to forget that he was one of the most consistent fantasy options going all season long, and it should be a very nice match-up with the Bucks here. I don't know that he has the huge upside of some other big money plays tonight, but he should be very solid for 50/50 and double-up purposes. His price is ridiculous on DraftKings in particular.
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 22.82 DK Proj. Pts - 24.37
With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out, Johnson could have simply huge upside tonight, and the minutes he's been playing lead me to believe he's got quite a floor as well. I'd be happy with him in any format. Update: Johnson isn't getting the start. Darrun Hilliard is. I'm still bullish on Johnson's minutes, but not as much as before.
FanDuel only:
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 44.17 DK Proj. Pts - 47.23
Lillard plays huge minutes in close games, and these two teams just showed that they are relatively evenly matched. We're getting a discount on Lillard on account of a couple of weeks of erratic minutes (due to games not staying close), but we're forecasting a nice game for him here.
And really, that's it. It's a huge slate with a lot of moving parts (and a lot of juicy stack possibilities). There are a few guys that show up more often than others, but there are so many different ways to go that it's impossible to list them all here.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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View Comments
KCP OUT tonight for DET. Bump for Stan Johnson
It's in the system! Writing it up now.
So pumped for tonight. With only two NHL games I am full speed ahead on NBA tonight. Used the Optimizer last night and crushed it. Used Optimizer for 1 LU and then made a few tweaks to get two others optimized LU's for DraftKings. Won some Milli maker tickets, step 1-4 tickets, and placed with two of the lineups in the 3 limit entry tournament.
Great work guys. I am a novice NBA player as I am so consumed in PGA, NASCAR, NHL and soon MLB but have been winning consistently thanks to you guys.
Let's crush it again tonight.
I have to say - I love what's being spit out early here. So much value all over the place, and my guess is that novice players are going to screw up where to punt and where to spend.
The Boogie Monster is OUT for SAC tonight. Rudy, Rudy, Rudy!
Boogie is OUT!
Only 2 SF spots. Which two: Lebron James, Rudy Gay, and Stanley Johnson?
I'd say stick with the King and Rudy. With Boogie out, almost guarantees and uptick in usage for Rudy and the King is the epitome of safety.
It's punt play Wednesday. Mavs starting Salah Mejri.
Jeepers I think gotta play Stanley and Rudy and without James, should be able to fit both Lilliard and curry in
Yep - that's the optimal at the moment. Especially with Mejri starting.
Millsap or draymon green?
Lol, you are right about the Punt Plays. I would even say it's a heavy night on bargains. You can conceivably fit 4 of the elite guys with 2 value guys and 3 punts lmao
This is what I have as of now for the Value/Punt picks:
PG
NONE LOL
SG
Wes Matthews
Tim Hardaway, JR
SF
Stanley Johnson
PF
Amir Johnson
Darrell Arthur
Willie Cauley-Stein
Jon Leuer (Chandler Out, Len will move to C)
C
Majeri