Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Basketball Injury News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/23/16
Welcome to the daily updates and injury news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock tonight.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
What We Know
DeMarcus Cousins's knee bruise WILL keep him out of action?
Updating our previous report!
Cousins bruised his knee in the 4th quarter against Chicago, and will miss this one. Rudy Gay has been the biggest usage beneficiary in the past - his usage jumping from 22% with Cousins playing to 27% without. It also would free up more minutes for Koufos and Cauley-Stein, who played 24 and 21 minutes respectively the last time Cousins missed a game. Rudy Gay is now something like a must for me, and Koufos becomes an interesting big tournament play. Darren Collison also got a big minutes bump in Boogie's last miss.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out
When he missed a stretch of games in early February, Stanley Johnson played some very effective mid-high 30 minute games. The Pistons have added a few guys since then, so it's not clear that he'll dive right in for that role here, but if he's named the starter he's a very attractive play for tonight's slates in a nice match-up with the Magic. Update: Johnson isn't getting the start. Darrun Hilliard is. I'm still bullish on Johnson's minutes, but not as much as before.
Larry Nance Jr. is back
Seem like an anti-climactic way to start the article? It really isn't. The Lakers having Nance active has led to a 4-6 minute reduction for Julius Randle all season long, and while it's a nice match-up with the Suns, Randle logged just 26 uneventful minutes against them with Nance in the rotation just a week ago. I'll be keeping Randle out of my cash game lineups as a result.
Kevin Love is back
I'm not sure you want to trust him given his relatively erratic performance and the recent illness, so the big news here is the usage he'll take away from LeBron and Kyrie. Probably doesn't make a difference for you if you're paying attention, but don't count on LeBron to put up 33/11/11 with Love back in the mix and Kyrie likely not as benched.
Jonas Valanciunas will return
One of the biggest pieces of news on the day, somehow. Valanciunas was able to practice on Tuesday, and his return will mean a significant dip in playing time for the suddenly not-so-cheap Bismack Biyombo. Biyombo has a nice match-up with the C's if Valanciunas is a surprise scratch, but at this point it looks like JV is back.
Patrick Patterson will return
Jason Thompson played decent minutes and was a great play on a near minimum salary against Orlando, but is obviously out of the picture with Patterson returning. I won't be playing Pat Pat either.
Updated reports:
Robert Covington is back
A lot has changed in Philly since he went down, and Covington is such a versatile player that he could effect guys at all manner of positions - Isaiah Canaan, Jerami Grant, Hollis Thompson - all these guys are susceptible to minutes decreases tonight. Play them at your own risk.
Salah Mejri is starting
And he was pretty amazing on Sunday. Feels fairly insane to play him in a 50/50, but the upside is through the roof. With how thin the Mavs are right now, though, it's a very intriguing option.
What We're Waiting to Know
Kenneth Faried - will he come back?
Faried's absence has opened up playing time for Darrell Arthur in particular, but he's been a very up and down daily fantasy basketball commodity. Jusuf Nurkic has also seen increased opportunity, and has been a points-per-minute beast all season long. But yeah, we're mostly talking big tournament plays here, as the Nuggets situation is one of the least predictable from night to night.
D'Angelo Russell may sit tonight
He left Tuesday's game early, and while a shin bruise isn't really a huge concern, there's no telling what the Lakers will do here. If Russell does miss the game it should lead to more ball handling duties for Jordan Clarkson and Marcelo Huertas, both of whom would become very interesting plays from where I'm sitting. I'm assuming we won't know his status for the main slate, but it's certainly worth keeping an eye on either way.
Was Tyson Chandler's removal on Monday precautionary, or something more?
He never returned for the 2nd half against Memphis, and Jon Leuer picked up 32 very effective minutes off the bench. If Chandler misses tonight, Leuer should be considered a high floor, high ceiling play appropriate for deployment in any contest.
Goran Dragic's status
It looks like it's only a mild sprain, but even the mildest of tweaks can be a problem this late in the season as teams begin to eye the playoffs. Dragic has been a lot more involved in the Heat offense since Chris Bosh went on the shelf, and his absence would mean a lot of the ball handling duties would need to be redistributed. Josh Richardson would be the chief beneficiary, with a bump to Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson as well.
The "Every Lineup" Guys
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
As a side note as well - a lot of this is subject to change on such a big slate. These are the ELGs as of noon EST.
Editor's note: These plays are just changing constantly with all the news rushing in. The system now prefers Rudy Gay to LeBron - but I don't want to change the below because I don't want to mislead people by changing it. Advice for tonight - don't finalize your lineups until minutes before lock!
LeBron James - FD 9900 DK 9400
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 46.71 DK Proj. Pts - 48.69
King James sees a big price jump on FanDuel, but stays as an every line-up guy, even with Love returning. The sites seem to forget that he was one of the most consistent fantasy options going all season long, and it should be a very nice match-up with the Bucks here. I don't know that he has the huge upside of some other big money plays tonight, but he should be very solid for 50/50 and double-up purposes. His price is ridiculous on DraftKings in particular.
Stanley Johnson - FD 3900 DK 3800
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 22.82 DK Proj. Pts - 24.37
With Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out, Johnson could have simply huge upside tonight, and the minutes he's been playing lead me to believe he's got quite a floor as well. I'd be happy with him in any format. Update: Johnson isn't getting the start. Darrun Hilliard is. I'm still bullish on Johnson's minutes, but not as much as before.
FanDuel only:
Damian Lillard - FD 8900 DK 9100
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 44.17 DK Proj. Pts - 47.23
Lillard plays huge minutes in close games, and these two teams just showed that they are relatively evenly matched. We're getting a discount on Lillard on account of a couple of weeks of erratic minutes (due to games not staying close), but we're forecasting a nice game for him here.
And really, that's it. It's a huge slate with a lot of moving parts (and a lot of juicy stack possibilities). There are a few guys that show up more often than others, but there are so many different ways to go that it's impossible to list them all here.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
image sources
- Joey Dorsey, DeMarcus Cousins: (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)
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KCP OUT tonight for DET. Bump for Stan Johnson
It’s in the system! Writing it up now.
So pumped for tonight. With only two NHL games I am full speed ahead on NBA tonight. Used the Optimizer last night and crushed it. Used Optimizer for 1 LU and then made a few tweaks to get two others optimized LU’s for DraftKings. Won some Milli maker tickets, step 1-4 tickets, and placed with two of the lineups in the 3 limit entry tournament.
Great work guys. I am a novice NBA player as I am so consumed in PGA, NASCAR, NHL and soon MLB but have been winning consistently thanks to you guys.
Let’s crush it again tonight.
I have to say – I love what’s being spit out early here. So much value all over the place, and my guess is that novice players are going to screw up where to punt and where to spend.
The Boogie Monster is OUT for SAC tonight. Rudy, Rudy, Rudy!
Boogie is OUT!
Only 2 SF spots. Which two: Lebron James, Rudy Gay, and Stanley Johnson?
I’d say stick with the King and Rudy. With Boogie out, almost guarantees and uptick in usage for Rudy and the King is the epitome of safety.
It’s punt play Wednesday. Mavs starting Salah Mejri.
Jeepers I think gotta play Stanley and Rudy and without James, should be able to fit both Lilliard and curry in
Yep – that’s the optimal at the moment. Especially with Mejri starting.
Millsap or draymon green?
Lol, you are right about the Punt Plays. I would even say it’s a heavy night on bargains. You can conceivably fit 4 of the elite guys with 2 value guys and 3 punts lmao
This is what I have as of now for the Value/Punt picks:
PG
NONE LOL
SG
Wes Matthews
Tim Hardaway, JR
SF
Stanley Johnson
PF
Amir Johnson
Darrell Arthur
Willie Cauley-Stein
Jon Leuer (Chandler Out, Len will move to C)
C
Majeri
Anyone thinking Towns in cash LU?
Play Mejri with confidence…he might not put up what he did last time out but he will meet value…as the system gets info it sees something as a better play at the moment but the best time to click optimal it is 10 min before lock..its got most of th einfo thats useful into making a lineup
Think you need to Mejri in cash.
Mejri fell out the optimal lineups? What happened to him? lol
Didnt Gay suck a fat one last time EVERYONE played him when Cousins was suspended? Ill be fading him with confidence
the DFS disease is letting past performances effect you… lol gotta have amnesia in DFS or you can miss the “best plays”. We forget that these athletes we bet on are human… and are allowed to have off days… try not to play with emotions!!
LOL i hear ya…my emotions were all over the place when he screwed me last time…ill make a lineup with him in it just to say i did
Is Stanley Johnson a must play in cash now that Bullocks is out too??
Thoughts on Tobias Harris and Darrun Hilliard as low-owned GPP plays?
Thoughts on Crawford tonight? seems like a good matchup
Beal is in all of my lienups next to the Beard
Really like beal if hes starting. At these prices I’d personally call him must start with wes matthews. Wiz are in playoff push mode and are rested. beal gets low 30’s minutes he’ll kill this 5500 tag on FD 4x floor
Could someone enlighten me on Jusuf Nurkic. System seems to love him but I’m skeptical.
rotowire is showing that green is not starting for golden state………..am I missing something here?????
i saw that too? whats that mean?? it has the same starting line sans green on rotogrinders as well?
just read this on rotoworld
“While Rudy Gay will be an extremely popular DFS play, his production doesn’t change a ton with Cousins out of the lineup. Gay is averaging .89 FPPM with Cousins, but that number only rises to .98 without DMC. While he’s a tough cash game fade, pivoting to Gordon Hayward or Andrew Wiggins has plenty of GPP viability. Kosta Koufos gets the biggest bump for the Kings, as his playing time should rise against a big T’Wolves front-court.”
maybe change some minds… Im thinking stanley johnson with lebron james for cash… idk… what yall think?
I would only consider lebron if kyrie was rested. they even say “he’s a tough cash game fade” I think rudy and stanley are locks
Do anyone know if Draymond Green is playing?
Wth Stanley not starting I’m just a wee bit hesitant on him. I think he’s fine, but Hilliard starting is a minor issue
Not sure how it will effect the minutes but looks like DET wants to keep rotation in tact so Stan Johnson not starting. Darrun Hilliard gets the start in place of KCP.
What am I missing on Dirk? Haven’t seen a projection anywhere over 33fp tonight and the last 6 he’s average 44fp and playing against a team he just dropped 57fp on. 5 of the 6 games were with Parsons. Is it as simple as Parsons injury not being factored in yet? Systems not buying Dirk seeming to be putting the team on his back for a playoff push?
I was thinking the same thing
I have Dirk starting, I don’t get it either, seems like a lock to me.
Does anyone know if draymond green is sitting out tonight or what
On the Mavericks front, what are everyone’s thoughts on Deron Williams?
McCollum or Thompson?
Lebron or Giannis?
Would really like to know what the status of Draymond G. is.
What do you think of starting the starting backcourt of the T-Wolves tonight? Without Cousins clogging things up, I think both LaVine and Rubio could really push the pace.
Booker worth a punt tonight, or stick with LaVine? (already starting Rubio).
I have not heard anything regarding Dramond Green sitting tonight’s game out. I’d be very surprised if he did. Warriors want the record and they need to go 10-2 down the stretch to get it. They want to win tonight.
I haven’t seen anything about Draymond sitting
Sounds like Deng might be a late scratch. Plan accordingly.
LATE news. Patrick Patterson OUT. Change those lineups.
gl everyone!!!
Holy SHEET Randle was only 4% owned!!!!
PG Damian Lillard POR $8,900
PG Chris Paul LAC $9,900
SG James Harden HOU $10,400
SG Zach LaVine MIN $6,100
SF Stanley Johnson DET $3,900
SF Rudy Gay SAC $6,100
PF Jon Leuer PHX $4,000
PF Julius Randle LAL $5,900
C Salah Mejri DAL $4,500
CHA CHING!! HIS USAGE IS AN IMMENSE 34 AND HES SET TO PLAY 37 MIN….Whats ur handle name on FD or DK? gotta see this!
So Draymond coming off the bench tonight? If so, you think that down ticks his value?
Lowrly out I have DD 3 percent owned !!!
The bummer about the late Lowry news is Thomas would have been a GREAT play without Lowry guarding him.
Is draymond green out tonight
That Draymond news must be wrong of it would be all over the place, especially at home as it would mean Warriors would be ok with losing their home streak after losing to the Spurs… Gotta believe it’s a mistake or glitch…
Yeah the Draymond Green out is NOT being reported anywhere else, and the Warriors site has him in the Starting LU as well as Bogut!
Must be a jinx on SG tonight. Most of them stinking up the joint. Butler, Green, Beal, Hood, Anderson have been awful. Demar, Bradley and Dipo not doing much better right now either. Rough night.
and I left off Lavine whom I’m not sure is even playing 😉 based on his stat line from first half.
Rudy gay is a bum the optimizer spit out a dud once again
Rudy gay is awful… Full me once shame on me.. Full me twice? Wth? … Lol
Rudy Gay is on my do not play list so I faded him. Nothing to do with numbers. Ever since he made that comment a couple of weeks back about this being the hardest season he’s ever been through on the court I stopped playing him. He seems to be really struggling.
Rudy Killin what wld have been a good night for me.
Bad night gotta get it back tomorrow can’t complain after yesterday though
Bad day gotta get it back tomorrow , can’t complain after yesterday
Wes Matthews helped me win a lot of $$$$ tonight. I vow not to diss him as much.
Wes Matthews was my hero tonight lol he made up for gay and beal. I had the optimized line but went curry and koufos over paul and mejri and hit! Let’s get it again tomorrow!!! #DFSR