Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
After a wild weekend and an equally crazy Monday, I'm ready to settle in to a nice little short slate. It feels like forever since I wrote up a short slate, so now seems like as good a time as any to point out that we here at DFSR believe very strongly that, often times, the biggest edges come on the shortest of slates. Choosing the wrong play becomes magnified, and it's a lot harder to luck into a winning lineup. Tonight's slate happily features some awful defenses that we should be able to exploit, so let's dig in.
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Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 54.44 DK Proj. Pts - 56.26
A lot of people believe that getting the value plays right is the key on a night to night basis, but missing on your big guys (especially on a short slate) is far more damaging. It's fairly obvious, I guess - you're investing $10k on a guy instead of $4k - but tonight's slate really highlights it. Westbrook has a phenomenal projection against the Rockets tonight for a handful of reasons. The obvious, of course - he's been a triple-double machine, and has shown 15 rebound and 19 assist upside (what on Earth?), and his across-the-board production makes him one of the highest floor superstars imaginable. It's not a great match-up with Patrick Beverley, but Russ doesn't need a great match-up to do his work. While there's great value at PG today, safe lineups start with Russ.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 21.75 DK Proj. Pts - 22.97
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 28.61 DK Proj. Pts - 29.98
The two great cheap plays on the day. Douglas was a revelation on 37 minutes against the Clips, putting up 35 fantasy points while handling the ball a lot more than most people (myself included) projected. I think his floor is 4.5x points per dollar, even in a tough match-up with a slow Miami squad. McCallum, meanwhile, is the big upside shot in the dark. Memphis could put the kibosh on the McCallum experiment at any time, but he's been very solid on these minimum prices, and he's got a world class match-up with the Lakers. I like Douglas for 50/50s, and I'd play both if trying to hit a home run in big tourneys.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 33.65 DK Proj. Pts - 35.3
If you find yourself needing to middle the position a little bit just to get a bit of sanity. Douglas is a nice offensive player, but has stayed out of consistent NBA playing time in large part because of his D. Dragic has been a new player since Bosh went down, and I don't think he'll have any trouble against the league's 8th most generous point guard defense.
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 48.14 DK Proj. Pts - 49.74
With Davis gone for good and Anderson likely to miss this one as well, Holiday is arguably the only guy on the team who can create his own shot. The Pelicans will be at serious risk to be blown out in every game for the rest of the season, but Holiday is still not priced to his production and opportunity (on FanDuel in particular), and his max-effort approach should give him a decent floor here.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 23.85 DK Proj. Pts - 24.44
I'm writing this before the Suns/Grizz game on Monday, but my assumption is that Memphis continues to trot Tony out there for 32-33 minutes per game. If he's going to play that many minutes against the Lakers, he should be the safest play at the position on the board. The Lakers are young and sloppy - just the recipe for a guy like Allen to get his hustle stats - and it doesn't hurt that they've allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 17.84 DK Proj. Pts - 19.12
Now that he's out of Memphis, Lee has shown himself once again to be a pretty competent two-way player with the Hornets. Monday has been his coming out party - as of this writing he's played 28 minutes and put up 24 fantasy points in a super tough match-up with the Spurs. The Nets, on the other hand, have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. I think Lee is a great play in any format.
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Well, this is a hell of a position today. I can tell you that our lineup optimizer is pretty sure you should just go cheap and spend up at other positions. So I guess I should probably tell you to do the same thing.
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 22 DK Proj. Pts - 24.27
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 28.02 DK Proj. Pts - 29.44
Can you call either of these guys safe? I'm not sure. Babbitt is in a situation in New Orleans where there legit just aren't any guys, and he's been more than solid on starter's minutes in the last couple of weeks. So, I guess, you can call him the safer of the two. Beasley, meanwhile, has been a man possessed since joining the Rockets. Bickerstaff seems to be running out of reasons to leave him on the bench, and he could be settling into a high 20s minutes rotation right now. The problem with situations like Beasley's, though, is that one off night can mean a random 15 minute outing. I'm going to do my best not to trust him in double-ups today.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.71 DK Proj. Pts - 29.58
Here's the guy I'd prefer to play if I were looking for a higher floor. Bogdanovic is suddenly the centerpiece of the Nets offense, and he's plenty cheap for a guy who's shot no fewer than 16 shots in each of his last 3 games. I'm quietly waiting for him to go all pumpkin on us, but there's plenty of safety built into these prices, especially on a short slate.
Let's talk about Kevin Durant. I don't mind him today. I really don't! But the sore right elbow nonsense has me a little bit spooked, and he's been a less than stellar play in 3 of his last 6 outings. The upside is clearly to the moon and back, but I'd pick Russ if I could only choose 1.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 35.91 DK Proj. Pts - 36.49
The clear cut #1 option for me, today. Randolph crushed in his first game back from injury, and the endless wave of guys that play 20 minutes a game for the Lakers should be lost against him tonight. I'd keep an eye out for any news about potentially sitting him on the 2nd half of a back to back, but otherwise I'd be happily playing him in every format against one of the league's worst interior defenses.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 27.67 DK Proj. Pts - 29.02
Another cash game lock candidate, Deng was working 6 straight games with 5x-7x points per dollar on these prices before a blowout of the Cavs ended his streak on Saturday. Well, he's set to resume his stellar performances against the literal homeless people that the Pelicans will be starting at the 3 and 4 tonight. I'd happily deploy Deng in any format, honestly.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 20.81 DK Proj. Pts - 21.14
Zeller was one of our off-beat recommendations for Monday, and I'm happy to report that his stellar rebounding was a primary reason that the Hornets clawed back into a tough game with the Spurs. One game samples aside, Zeller is playing a 29 minute rotation right now, and he's been a .8 fantasy point per minute guy this season on 24 minutes a game. It's a math problem, like most things DFS. Also helpful for this math problem is the fact that the Nets have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season, and Brook Lopez is on the mend.
Also considered: Dante Cunningham was uncharacteristically great with Davis and Anderson out last game, and while he's one of the lowest usage players in the NBA generally, it did seem like the Pels were prepared to at least let him hold the ball occasionally. This will be the game to see if this is going to be real or not, but there's a chance he's a great value at these prices.
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 19.9 DK Proj. Pts - 20.41
He sure looked like the primary beneficiary of the lack of big men in New Orleans against the Clippers, posting a 15/14 in 30 minutes and looking comfortable with the extra space down low. His price is laughable if he's going to play that many minutes, and the match-up is almost immaterial. It's just a mismatch of price and opportunity at this point.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 36.51 DK Proj. Pts - 37.16
If you'd really prefer to spend up, I like Dwight Howard for big tournaments. He's stupid cheap at these prices, and recency bias has the daily fantasy basketball industry relatively soured on him. But I mean, the guy put up 17 rebounds and 5 blocks+steals last game, and when a player is capable of stat lines like that, the sky is the limit when it comes to points per dollar upside. The Thunder aren't a fantastic match-up for opposing centers, but Dwight's athleticism makes up for Steven Adams' max-effort grit. I wouldn't be shocked to see 40+ fantasy points here, and Dwight should be a part of all Rockets/Thunder stacks.
Also considered: Brook Lopez.
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View Comments
I like Holiday and Allen as you suggest in the sg position but Holiday is listed at pg on Dk and Allen at sf on Dk so I cant use either.
William, put Jrue in the guard spot and Allen at the utility, it will make building around a little harder with allen in utility but its workable, or put allen at SF and a different SF or PF at the Forward position. Think outside the box a little when dealing with position variations per site,
Thanks. .I read your advice every night. First season padding dfs and I do research all day but can't seem to win aanything and I REALLY need to hit on something.any more advice would be appreciated by anyone..thanks..Joecrash0510@gmail.com
If Durant and Harden sit ( both missed practice today) going to be next to impossible to spend money.
Good news! Optimal returns have neither in the lineups at the moment ;)
So new york has now banned dfs which is not only upsetting its just ridiculous. Anyone know how to bypass state bans. Is there anyway to set up new accounts that allow dfs. Also how to bypass the ip address and payment issues. Lots of new yorkers suffering especially since i just paid for the pro optimizer 2 days ago. Any ideas?
Your best bet would be to use a VPN(Virtual private network) in order to hide your IP address so you can still deposit. You would need to make a new account. The issue is gonna be when you plan to fill out the tax form as your SSN will probably be linked to the state you are in. Other ideas would be a friend in another state make an account for you, though you would need to use his SSN when you fill out the tax form and withdrawals would be sent to him
Let's hit something today, think I put the jinx on you guys. Ever since I signed up for the system last week it's been rough
If harden sits, any projections on who they start in his place? Terry or McDaniel to keep Beasley running with 2nd unit?
Westbrook
Bogdanovic
Beasley
ZBo
Howard
Douglas
Deng
Asik
Thoughts? (tournament)
or
Westbrook
Lee
Beasley
ZBo
Howard
McCallum
Durant
Asik
Random question guys... Will the dfsr optimal lineup builder be available during the MLB season for premium members, as it it coming up soon? Just wondering. Thanks
Yes, it will definitely be ready for MLB season!