Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/20/16

It's our last night in San Diego and Casey and I are writing these picks from the DraftKings watch room for the live NHL final. Very cool experience and we put some of Chris's lineups in just for the sweat (they all cashed so check out the NHL product for sure). Our only goal at DFSR is to make it so us regular folk can compete on high levels with the DFS elite. Making it to the FBWC was a testament to that level of dedication and we are always firmly committed to accuracy. Ok enough of the the boring stuff, on to the picks.

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POINT GUARD

Early Slate
Damian Lillard - FD 8900 DK 9200
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 45.91 DK Proj. Pts - 49.1
I came very close to running him in the FBWC thinking he would make a solid natural stack with Anthony Davis in a game projected to go through the roof in scoring. Davis would have killed that dream anyway, but Lillard still turned in a great performance putting up a 33/8/6 line. On Sunday he gets a Dallas team above average in opposing point guard scoring though I'm not concerned because we've seen a price dip on Lillard. That's a great time to buy and I'm all over Lillard on the early slate. He's a guy I'll have in every lineup and I suspect he's the chalk play along with Ryan Anderson.

Late Slate
There's a lot of PG value on the main slate tonight. I'm going to give a few different options, but I can see a lot of ways to go at this position.
Isaiah Thomas - FD 7700 DK 7500
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 37.2 DK Proj. Pts - 39.74
Jrue Holiday - FD 7700 DK 8000
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 36.65 DK Proj. Pts - 38.23
I'm grouping them together because they are right in the same price tier and both stand to well out perform their projections. Thomas against the Sixers makes an obvious play if he sees minutes in the mid 30's. He's such a high usage guy though most of his upside is derived through scoring. That can lead to some shaky situations especially if the shot isn't falling. But I'm still loving the upside.

Meanwhile Jrue is a potential beneficiary of the Anthony Davis news though according to NBA wowy dude only sees about a 5% bump in usage without Brow on the court. I still suspect we see more of Holiday in this one if for nothing more than the offense New Orleans will need.
Isaiah Canaan - FD 4100 DK 4500
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 21.44 DK Proj. Pts - 24.3
Jose Calderon - FD 4000 DK 4000
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 20.91 DK Proj. Pts - 22.64
Both of these guys are coming in the same price tier and make for higher floor options relative to salary. Neither has tons of upside but their minutes expectation do make them safe. Canaan's been starting and getting up enough three balls to make him worth the chance. Calderon is a guy who needs every single minute of run but is so cheap that if you think he's playing in the low 30's then as a cash game play it's fine.

Meanwhile Calderon is the least exciting guy in the history of the NBA to root for but is still playing minutes and paying off his salary if he gets the run. Great matchup against a defensively deficient Sacramento team and dude could see run in the mid 30's. Update: Calderon tweaked his ankle yesterday. Keep an eye our for news on his status. 

 

SHOOTING GUARD

Early Slate
DeMar DeRozan - FD 8300 DK 7800
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 43.61 DK Proj. Pts - 44.58
This one is a lock on this slate. There was some talk of Lowry sitting before last game just to get some rest and I suppose that's still on the table for this one. But independent of that news I'll still run Demar just about everywhere. He's playing a million minutes and even with Orlando coming in just a tick above league average shooting guards, he's still a plenty high pts/$ play. This is such a super short slate so there's a lot that can change on a dime with injury. But I suspect Demar is there no matter what and if Lowry doesn't play then Derozan is a must play.

Late Slate
Rodney Hood - FD 5500 DK 5800
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 25.49 DK Proj. Pts - 27.61
Gordon Hayward came back yesterday but that didn't effect Hood at all in terms of shot volume. Dude chucked up 17 over the course of 39 minutes. Now of course the problem he had was efficiency, going 5-17 from the field and only 30% from three. That will kill a guy like Hood who's heavily dependent on scoring. But I love the volume and think it translates to this game. The price is still in the lower middle tier and for a guy playing close to forty minutes you can easily roster him. Milwaukee does allow slightly worse the average scoring to opposing shooting guards and this one makes a ton of sense.

J.J. Redick - FD 4800 DK 4900
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 22.85 DK Proj. Pts - 26.04
I am a little surprised by the line in this game only opening as LA -7 against a New Orleans team without Anthony Davis. But alas, Vegas knows better and this game projects for a bunch of points staying relatively close over the course. J.J. worries me some because he splits so much time at shooting guard and really has to get hot early in order to pay. But shooting guard is so shallow on the early slate that you can take his salary and hope the script plays out in his favor.

Baseball season is almost here. Check out the bottom of the article for our MLB ebook on setting daily fantasy baseball lineups as well as our MLB DFS strategy articles coming in the next couple weeks.

 

SMALL FORWARD

Early Slate
Evan Fournier - FD 6000 DK 5600
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 25.78 DK Proj. Pts - 28.45
Early slate small forward is a moderate disaster. Parsons is looking doubtful to play and there aren't really many other ways to go. Fournier will be one of the highest owned plays on the slate simply because of lack of options. Though it helps he's staring down the barrel at minutes in the high 30's and getting shot volume to boot. This one's an easy one.

Late Slate
Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 10200 DK 9600
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 49.19 DK Proj. Pts - 50.3
He's obviously a different player over the last month or so as Milwaukee is using him in new and generally advantageous ways. Some of this was forced on the Bucks simply because they've had so much trouble with the point guard position both from injury and apathy. But Giannis is thriving in having the offense run through him on many possessions as he's transitioning to their de facto offensive weapon. This is a bad defensive matchup, but I still think you are getting value on the guy even at these prices which feels nuts.

Rudy Gay - FD 6300 DK 6300
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 31.85 DK Proj. Pts - 33.23
The system is still in favor of Gay though I will admit it's having trouble discerning some of his rebounding issues of late. The shot volume is there for for sure, but some of the other areas of his stat line have suffered. He's seen a major dip in getting to the boards and his defensive stats have been somewhat nonexistent in matchups. The latter is most likely just sample size stuff. But the rebounding is for sure a concern. As it stands I still like him in this matchup but I'm worried the system's a little bullish on his floor.

POWER FORWARD

Early Slate
Aaron Gordon - FD 6000 DK 5800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 29.68 DK Proj. Pts - 30.74
Gordon hasn't been a model of consistency of late, but most of that can be attributed to opponent and randomly having his minutes buzzed off. It may not feel great and I can’t say I would blame for looking elsewhere for cash purposes, but this early slate is rather ugly. Unless some news uncovers a cheap option at the position it’s hard to imagine Gordon not being one of your PF plays. At the very least Gordon is a fun player to watch considering he treats his drives to the basket as if he were in a dunk contest.

Late Slate
Ryan Anderson - FD 6100 DK 6400
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 30.26 DK Proj. Pts - 33.09
Ooh, the sneaky play? Never. This is DFS and the news cycle works quickly sometimes. The reality is Anderson should be the chalk of chalk tomorrow even in a less than favorable match-up against the Cavaliers. Brow is possibly done for the year, but he’s definitely not playing tomorrow. Anderson instantly becomes a top cash play and it actually goes a little beyond than simply filling in for Davis. Anderson can score and even in limited minutes has the ability to hit value. Now that he should easily see minutes in the mid to upper 30’s he’s as close to a must play as there is on a relatively short slate.

Derrick Favors - FD 7400 DK 7300
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 36.26 DK Proj. Pts - 36.72
Favors would rate as the top PF on the night if it weren’t for Anderson. Milwaukee’s soft interior defense will likely have real trouble keeping Utah’s size down low in check. As stout as Gobert is on defense he’s not much of an offensive threat so Favors tends to see the usage in the paint. His price remains steady as does his production. There will be a few ways to go after Anderson, but I would still imagine he will be a popular play. The Bucks certainly aren’t the fastest pace in the NBA, but they are slightly below average against power forwards. He doesn’t totally stuff the stat sheet, but he chips in enough in other areas that he isn’t scoring dependent raising his floor a bit. Solid value.

Strongly consider Jabari Parker

 

CENTER

Early Slate
Mason Plumlee - FD 4800 DK 4400
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.8 DK Proj. Pts - 25.17
Plumlee saw a nice uptick in minutes the last two games with Meyers Leonard on the shelf, which is a trend that should continue tomorrow against Dallas. Now that Zaza seems to have been relegated to left bench Dallas runs a smallish lineup, which could result in better than typical rebound numbers for Mason. I’m not screaming Plumlee for an all-day slate, but in early-only games he’s close to a must play. The game is expected to stay close with a total around 215, which are both solid ingredients for a winning lineup.

*We suspect Jonas will play, but if he is ruled out Bismack is very much in play.

Late Slate
Robin Lopez - FD 5600 DK 5400
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.66 DK Proj. Pts - 28.09
Aside from the occasional stinker Lopez has been really good this year. When you look at his game log it basically comes down to the minutes. Every now and again the Knicks pull their best Pop impression and Lopez sees his minutes dwindle to the teens. This is more the exception than the rule and in a juicy match-up with the defenseless Kings Lopez is in prime position to pay this number going away. Sacramento’s defensive woes can be partially attributed to the fact they play at the fastest pace in the NBA. Again, it’s only a partial contributor as the main reason is the turn style defense they deploy. He is rarely a heavy play and with his occasional egg his price remains somewhat suppressed. In Robin we trust.

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 11100 DK 10400
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 52.28 DK Proj. Pts - 52.89
I really don’t envision running Boogie given the way the slate shapes up, but if you want to spend at Center he is the clear play. There isn’t much I can say about Boogie you don't already know. His usage is high and for a big man can really fill out the stat sheet. At this price there is little upside so I wouldn't suggest running him in GPP’s, but even at an 11k salary he’s serviceable for cash game purposes. The Knicks are near the bottom in pace so Cousins’ opportunity could be a bit limited, but the guy is such a centerpiece for the Kings. Assuming he doesn’t get into early foul trouble you’re looking somewhere around 4x for a floor. That’s not bad for an 11k player.

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