Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Basketball Injury News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/18/16
Welcome to the daily updates and injury news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock tonight.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
What We Know
Tim Frazier is starting
Frazier caught a lot of daily fantasy basketball players' eyes on Wednesday, dropping 33 fantasy points in 27 minutes in a blowout win over the Kings. He caught Alvin Gentry's eye, too, as Frazier has been announced the starter (likely in place of Toney Douglas) for Friday's tilt with with the Trail Blazers (revenge game, btw!). But man, it's pretty tough to figure out exactly how many minutes he's going to play. He'll be directly competing with Jrue Holiday, Toney Douglas, and Luke Babbitt for minutes, and Gentry's "short leash" tendencies have me a little spooked. Still, it's a good sign that he played 27 minutes in his first game with the Pelicans, and an even better sign that his coach was so inspired as to bump him into the starting lineup after one game. I'd guess he'll play high 20s minutes tonight, and should have no problem paying basically minimum prices.
All of this assumes that Norris Cole is out again, by the way. Chances are good that Frazier's signing was an indication that Cole isn't close, but if he does come back, I wouldn't play Frazier anywhere.
Brandon Bass is playing tonight
We were on this in Bass' last game, and his absence predictably meant a rise in minutes for Julius Randle. Well, with Bass back tonight, it's only sensible to offer downward guidance on Randle even in a great match-up with the Suns tonight. Still some upside there, but don't count on him for 30 minutes.
What We're Waiting to Know
Reggie Jackson - Will his breathing issue hold him out?
Jackson missed practice on Thursday with what's being called a "breathing issue," and the Pistons have gone ahead and signed Lorenzo Brown as "insurance" against Jackson not playing tonight. I don't think I'd play a guy fresh up from the D-League in anything but a big tournament, but I'd turn my attention to both Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Andre Drummond if he sits, as both get nice usage bumps if he sits.
Actually, I'll just give you the numbers for the guys you can consider, since they all have a nice match-up with the Kings.
Usages with Jackson playing: KCP - 18.6, Marcus Morris - 19.2, Tobias Harris - 21.4, Andre Drummond - 26.1.
Usages with Jackson out: KCP - 23.4, Marcus Morris - 25.1, Tobias Harris - 24.4, Andre Drummond - 29.2.
On court/off court data thanks to NBA Wowy.
Update: Jackson will play tonight.
Will Rajon Rondo return?
Rondo's absence made Darren Collison a chalk play in a great match-up with the Pelicans, and he performed well as compared to his price. The only problem was that the Kings got blown out, and Collison lost some minutes. The interesting punt play from that game wound up being James Anderson, who played 34 minutes and put up 24 fantasy points against the Pels. He was actually pulled when the rest of the first unit was pulled, and could have played more minutes had the game been closer. The only problem is Marco Belinelli, whose return tonight could cramp his style. Anderson is more of a long shot big tourney play, even if Rondo sits.
Elfrid Payton's status
This will be a big shoe to drop whenever Payton finally comes back, because both CJ Watson and Brandon Jennings have done terrifically when placed in the starting role for the Magic. Jennings has the momentum at the, um, moment, and will likely get the start again tonight if Payton misses this one. He's a better play on DraftKings, but is a fine play regardless of the format.
Will Bismack Biyombo get another start?
With the Proud Lithuanian questionable once again, we might have yet another Biyombo sighting. Bismack has been a force of nature in the last 3 Raptors games, and has a nice match-up with the Celtics' front court here. The big question looming is - what will his minutes look like after playing 42 in an overtime game with the Pacers last night? He's not as cheap as he was, but as a point-per-minute fantasy player, he's likely still very undervalued. Looking at his game log, the 42 minutes do look like an outlier, but keep in mind that he was set to play in the low 30s against the Bucks before the game got out of hand and he sat the 4th.
The "Every Lineup" Guys
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Tim Frazier - FD 3500 DK 3400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 20.53 DK Proj. Pts - 21.61
Bismack Biyombo - FD 4200 DK 4600
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 25.46 DK Proj. Pts - 26.01
The two best punts going, and it really isn't close. The more I turn it over in my mind, the more I believe that Alvin Gentry didn't hand Frazier the starting job just to pull him after 15 minutes or whatever today. Both of these comes with the caveat that they need their respective starters to sit, but if they do, I'm all systems go on both so I can spend up elsewhere.
Kevin Durant - FD 10400 DK 10100
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 50 DK Proj. Pts - 53.12
With Covington out, the Sixers don't even have anyone who can pretend to cover Durant. Noel is simply not quick enough, and if this falls to Jerami Grant, Durant could spend the whole game on the foul line. There's obvious blowout risk here, but again, the "optimal" lineup isn't always the safest.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
image sources
- Rajon Rondo: AP Photo/Chuck Burton
56 Visitor Comments
Post a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Reggie Jackson Is Playing Tonight Just Got That News In
Updated the article – thanks!
I’m rolling with Doug tonight, whatever the #1 optimal lineup is at 6:45, I’m playing it everywhere. Good luck in SD!
Haha, we’re tearing our hair out getting everything perfect right now. Pretty crazy process at the moment.
Hopefully a repeat of Tues and Wed #’s and not last night!
Good luck to Doug!
Last night was awful! How do you feel about Caldwell-Pope tonight?
Rondo being listed as probable. Still keeping some Collison exposure or nah?
Sure – Rondo is gimpy, and Collison still playing huge minutes.
You know your not the only person to roll with the optimal lineup at 645 right. Everyone does that.
I think I did that exact thing last night and horford screwed me over. Two other people had the same exact lineup as me.
I really think kyle lowry sits tonight, played 43 minutes last night.
I got the brow in hope he don’t hurt himself walk-in into arena
I’m Rolling with Optimal tonight as well!! I should have listened to the system with CJ last night, had i not switched to Hill i would have cashed in nicely…it could have gone the other way if Bimbo didnt have a monster game. But the system did its job with the info that was presented IMO
I play mostly double ups. My line up should be mostly mid tier guys opposed to studs/duds? Great info on this site! Thanks
Stephen, totally depends on the night! Sometimes because of an injury a punt play is a pretty sure thing to pay his salary nicely and you want to play those punts in double ups as well as tournaments. For the middle and upper tier guys it’s more trying to find guys that are consistent in cash games, rather than volatile players that sometimes blow up and sometimes disappear.
Why you use the same lineups as a ton of other people? Unless your doing head to head or something ..?
new to the site.
where do i find the optimal lineup?
Im rolling with Kanter tonight…i highly doubt BIMBO will be able to post what he did last night. Let’s ask DOUG lol im sure hes a damn mess right now trying to figure things out
Where do you get the optimal lineup at?
well its between Kanter and Drummond
I passed on BB last night… boy do I regret it… lost $50
lol i think we all passed on BB….Everyone tried to get cute and go another direction. I’ll probably do the same again tonight lol
I’m rolling with b knight and booker tonight in all my lineups. Along with Kanter and Anthony made of Glass davis!
Payton OUT!
Where are you seeing that?
?? I don’t see that either
Rotowire says still GTD, but confirm Jennings as starting at PG…
roto
ibaka resting
Turner starting over Smart. Love GTD.
This is definitely time to Roster KANTER with ibaka out!!
Norris Cole out Kevin love starting and nick collison starting for ibaka. Any way we can play nick colisson. He may be blowout proof
WCS out Rondo starting
Is Tim frazier not starting now? According to rotoworld he’s not
Do we know for certain Frazier starting tonight? Don’t see it confirmed in lineup. If Cole out that certainly helps.
Jonas active but not starting according to reports. May or may not play
The mad scramble…….lol
Optimal lineup looks great!
rolling with optimal with Kanter, BIMBO and Drummond
Good LUCK DOUG!!!
Jonas says he won’t play.
Let The Games Begin
Any thoughts or news on David Lee? I think he could be great if he plays and gets minutes.
WoW on Oladipo
Rough start…
Anthony Davis With A Phantom Injury OMG WTF is this guys deal for real
How do get the optimal lineup?
Davis always does that crap, and my PG’S are killing me
what a crappy Day For me i had Davis in just about all of my line-ups. I Hate to admit that we come from the same neighborhood in Chicago Because he has no Toughness LBVS Anthony Davis AKA Mister Glass
I’m done rostering the glass brow forever. F that guy. Never seen anyone as soft as him.
Class!! Please repeat after me. I will never ever again roster Anthony Davis no matter how good the match up looks on paper! Thank you!
Never ever ever
I’m gonna break in his house and shave that brow
Optimal lineups weren’t so optimal
Hey all! Sorry for missing these today – Doug and I were going crazy getting everything perfect for the FBWC.
As you saw, Brow went down and our dreams of $1m with it. But we still stand by the play – in big tournaments, going for upside is the proper play, and he should have been able to get his against the Trail Blazers.
Still, it would have been nice if Boogie had been projected for .06 more points, because then Doug would have come in something like 13th place 🙂
Thanks for the support, and we’ll be back on the horse again tomorrow for sure!
These last 2 optimal lineups have been a bust but I have faith you guys will come back I have faith in you guys. Hopefully for tomorrow haha