Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 85 – 3/19/15

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UFC Fight Night 85

Two weeks without a UFC card, that was torture! But we’re back after a wild, upset-filled UFC 196 card and heading down under for UFC Fight Night 85 from Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. The lineup has been shuffled several times but one thing remains, I like A LOT of underdogs. That tends to happen with the overseas cards, picking favorites can be tricky, and those with stoppage potential gets even harder. Let’s dive in and try to sort out this mess.

One more thing: I'll be checking the comments section all week, or get me on Twitter, to talk about all things UFC 196 heading into lineup lock.

 

Heavy Favorites ($10,500+)

Alan Patrick Silva Alves ($10,800)

With all the great value plays this week, you shouldn’t need to fade any of the heavy favorites. The problem is, where the hell do you go for safety on this card? I’m starting with the very first fight of the night with Alan Patrick Silva Alves, simply listed as Alan Patrick on DraftKings. Patrick is 12-1 with six career finishes and looking to bounce back from his first career loss.

Patrick is relatively unimpressive but across from him will be Damien Brown, a guy making his UFC debut on short-notice. That’s a recipe for disaster if you ask me. Brown was in a three-round fight less than a month ago. It’s a great opportunity for the 31-year old Aussie but Patrick’s UFC experience should serve him well on the way to a victory.

 

Alan Jouban ($11,200)

It’s an all-Alan write-up for the favorites. Jouban could be a chalky play because of the strong underdogs but he’s definitely worth mentioning. “Brahama” is 3-2 in his UFC career with two first-round knockouts to his credit. Jouban steps into the cage with Brendan O’Reilly, 1-1 in his UFC career and someone I don’t think can finish opponents at the highest level of MMA. The odds makers love Jouban and on this occasion I agree with them, he seems to have the advantage against O’Reilly anywhere the fight goes.

 

Mid-Tier Targets ($9,500 - $10,400)

Hector Lombard ($9,600)

Why is Hector Lombard an underdog in this fight? Anyone? Is Neil Magny that impressive? Whatever the case, I’m jumping on Lombard at this price and will have him in almost all of my cash lineups. I guess the knock on Lombard is he hasn’t fought in over a year due to a suspension. I’m not too worried about it, he still looks huge and past performance tells me he’s an animal in the cage. Magny has strung together a couple of split decision wins against quality opponents but I think Lombard is on another level. The MMA world has fallen asleep on this guy but he could wake them if he drops Magny.

 

Johnny Case ($9,700)

*Win or Lose this fight may very well steal the show on Saturday*

It’s show time for Hollywood! Clever, probably not. But come Saturday it should be an accurate statement. Johnny “Hollywood” Case has been on fire, winning 12 straight including a trio of UFC wins in 2015. Case has 18 stoppages in his 22 career wins in a fight that is not likely to go to the scorecards. His opponent, Jake Matthews, is no slouch with a 3-1 career record in the UFC. I’m hunting for the bonus points on this one and Case is the better striker. These two young guys both have a chance to make some noise in the division but I think the time is now for the 26-year old Case while the best days are a little further out for the younger Matthews.

 

Upset Alert (Under $9,500)

Frank Mir ($9,100)

Underdogs in the main event have done very well lately, hopefully I’m not jumping on that trend too late. Mir is an MMA legend and former Heavyweight champion that did not show his age last year. Mir was 2-1 in 2015 with a pair of first-round knockouts, which also both came in the main event of a “Fight Night” card.

Mir’s opponent is Mark Hunt who either gets a KO or gets knocked out himself. He’s 2-2 in his last four with all of those fights ending by, you guessed it, knockout. Mir knows how to handle strikers (see: Brock Lesnar) and if this fight goes to the ground he could cut through Hunt like butter. For me, this fight is really even and I may even put money on Mir straight up – making him a great DFS value.

 

Rin Nakai ($9,000)

Another fight where I’m struggling to understand the betting line. Nakai is 16-1-1 with her loss coming last time out against….anyone….the champ Miesha Tate. Nakai has 10 career stoppages while her opponent Leslie Smith is 1-3 in her last four fights, including a gruesome doctor stoppage versus against Jessica Eye in which her ear literally almost came off her head. Warning: the video below is disgusting. Smith’s only UFC win came against Jessamyn Duke who has been horrid for the last two years. Put all that together and Nakai seems way underpriced at $9,000.

 

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial of our lineup optimizer!