Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces  - Arnold Palmer Invitational

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Arnold Palmer Invitational

Bay Hill Club & Lodge - Orlando, FL

Par 72 - 7,419 Yards

For the third straight week the players faced a difficult course and again faced difficult conditions at the Copperhead course. The winds kept the scored in single digits again and Charl Schwartzel was able to beat out Bill Haas on the first playoff hole to pick up the win. Charl shot a four under 67 on Sunday(lead the field) to force the playoff and was consistent throughout the weekend.

There were a ton of storylines this week. Jordan Spieth struggled Thursday shooting a 76 but battled back Friday to make the cut and get somewhat into contention before shooting a two over 73 on Sunday to finish T18. Graham DeLaet, playing in the final group with Haas on Sunday, couldn't make good on his prediction of getting his first win but it won't be long before he gets some hardware on the PGA Tour. The biggest surprise and best story, in my opinion, was the outstanding play of amateur Lee McCoy. The 22 year old college student shot a 3 over 74 on Thursday and continually got better heading into the weekend shooting a even par 71 on Friday to make the cut then an incredible 5 under 66 on Saturday. He finished the tournament strong with a 2 under 69 to pick up a solo 4th place finish. The future is bright for this young man. If you enjoy the video recap from PGAtour.com here it is:

This week the PGA Tour continues the Florida swing with the fourth straight tournament in the sunshine state. This week the players travel to Orlando for the 2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. The course is a Par 72 that stretches 7,419 Yards in length and with a ton of sand protecting the greens and strategically placed on the fairways to force players to decide. Go long and try and carry the bunkers or lay up and take a longer approach into the green. Most players, at least those that frequent the top of the leaderboard here will choose the latter. For this reason driving distance won't be weighted as much this week. I will rely more on Good Drive %, Proximity from 175-200, and Scrambling. As always Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Putting will be heavily weighted. One thing to watch for will be the greens this week as the Bermuda grass has been replaced with a different form of Bermuda grass. The change came after the muddy situation leading up to last years event where some pros were worried they wouldn't be able to find enough hole locations. LOL. They should be a lot faster than last year placing a ton of emphasis on putting this week.

Below are the main stats I am weighting on the cheatsheet this week. Up to 10 PGA Tour stats are used each week. The cheatsheet also provides last 5 years of tournament history and last 5 tournaments of current form. I have also added a tab showing the course layout and yardages as well as a breakdown of the Top 10 and key stats from last years WGC Cadillac Championship.

 

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Ball Striking
• Good Drive %
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards
• Par 4 Scoring Average
• Par 5 Scoring Average
• Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• Birdie or Better %
• Strokes Gained: Putting

I will again this week be interacting through the comments section below and ready to answer any questions about Fantasy Golf or anything you wanna talk about. Join the conversation. And as always, I am available on Twitter @Jager_bombs9.

 High End Targets ($9,000+)

Adam Scott
Vegas Odds - 13/1
Draftkings - $11,700
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $6,200

He ranks #1 in my stats model this week and it isn't really close. He leads the Tour in SG:T2G, Par 5 Average, and BoB%. Out of the 15 stats I have listed on the cheatsheet he only ranks outside the Top 25 in two(Scrambling-97th & SG:P-43rd). The putting has been a surprise as he has made a transition to the traditional putter. He is a world class player and is coming off back to back wins at the Cadillac and Honda Classic and has two runner ups at the Northern Trust and CIMB Classic. There are those who will fade him but this run he is on takes us back to last fall when Jason Day was going nuts. Ride the hot streak.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 1
• Ball Striking - 15
• Good Drive % - 6
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 3
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 17
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 1
• Scrambling - 97
• Bogey Avoidance - 24
• Birdie or Better % - 1
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 43

 

 

Henrik Stenson
Vegas Odds - 14/1
Draftkings - $11,100
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $5,900

He checks every box this week. He has the best course history dating back five years of any player who has played Bay Hill more than twice. He is coming off back to back Top 5's in 2015 and 2014 and has made the cut in all five years. Don't let the few low ranked stats scare you this week as he is an elite player who is starting to come into form and is playing a course that fits his game perfectly. Look for Stenson to be in contention again this year. His salary over $11K makes it tough to build a cash game around so I would only recommend for GPP formats this week.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 9
• Ball Striking - 17
• Good Drive % - 3
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 9
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 140
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 29
• Scrambling - 185
• Bogey Avoidance - 98
• Birdie or Better % - 17
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 174

 

 

Matt Kuchar
Vegas Odds - 33/1
Draftkings - $9,400
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $5,600

He hasn't played at this event since 2003 so course history is a little tricky to go off this week. He is ranked 13th in my stats model and his game should fit the course. One thing is for sure, Kuchar makes cuts. He is 7/7 so far this season and in 25 starts last year he only missed one cut. He is extremely consistent and can be trusted in cash games this week at a salary in the mid $9K range.

 

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 32
• Ball Striking - 89
• Good Drive % - 73
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 136
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 67
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 9
• Scrambling - 44
• Bogey Avoidance - 29
• Birdie or Better % - 31
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 31

 

Also Consider - Ryan Moore, Rory McIlroy

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $9,000)

Kevin Kisner
Vegas Odds - 50/1
Draftkings - $8,900
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $5,700

Another consistent option who can be trusted in all formats this week. He has made 8 of 9 cuts this year including his first career win at the RSM Classic back in November. He missed the cut at the Phoenix Open  then followed it up with a T70 at the Honda Classic before getting back in the Top 25 with a T23 at the Cadillac Championship. He is trending in the right direction and due for another top finish. He played here last year for the first time and picked up a T49(-4) and should easily top that this time around.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 31
• Ball Striking - 7
• Good Drive % - 22
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 86
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 4
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 9
• Scrambling - 64
• Bogey Avoidance - 10
• Birdie or Better % - 4
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 39

 

 

Charles Howell III
Vegas Odds - 66/1
Draftkings - $8,000
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $5,050

After picking up a Top 5 last week at the Valspar, Chucky 3 Sticks only seen a $100 increase on DraftKings. He will be cemented in my cash lineup this week and is a tremendous value. He has played this tournament 15 times and made 13 cuts including each of the last five years. In 2016 he is struggling with Proximity and Good Drive % but his elite putting, scrambling, and bogey avoidance keeps him churning out cuts left and right.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 58
• Ball Striking - 70
• Good Drive % - 112
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 152
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 27
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 25
• Scrambling - 25
• Bogey Avoidance - 8
• Birdie or Better % - 59
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 49

 

 

John Huh
Vegas Odds - 100/1
Draftkings - $7,500
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $4,550

I absolutely love these weeks that are filled with consistent options in the mid range. It makes it a whole lot easier to construct cash game lineups. Huh is another one of those golfers I will trust this week at a great value in the mid $7k range. He fits the stats model very well as a good tee to green player with a top 50 rank in good drive % and he kills the Par 5's, scrambles well and is a decent putter. He has a poor wrap around portion of the season missing 3 of 5 cuts but since the calendar turned to 2016 he has made 6 of 7 cuts highlighted by a T14 and T22 in his last two outings.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 45
• Ball Striking - 74
• Good Drive % - 44
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 89
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 107
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 25
• Scrambling - 49
• Bogey Avoidance - 48
• Birdie or Better % - 79
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 72

 

Also Consider - Matt Jones(GPP), Smylie Kaufman(GPP)

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Brett Stegmaier
Vegas Odds - 200/1
Draftkings - $6,500
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $3,750

He makes a great GPP play in the mid $6K range this week. He has made two straight cuts with impressive performances. He picked up a T21 at the Honda Classic and most recently a T18 last weekend at the Valspar. The most notable thing about those two finishes is his Sunday performances. In both tournaments he closed with an impressive 68. I love low end guys that are coming in with terrific form and a solid game that matches the course. Stegmaier fits this bill and could be a player that is under 5% owned. Perfect recipe for GPP's.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 78
• Ball Striking - 36
• Good Drive % - 108
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 158
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 51
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 81
• Scrambling - 96
• Bogey Avoidance - 73
• Birdie or Better % - 96
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 79

 

 

Mark Hubbard
Vegas Odds - 300/1
Draftkings - $6,100
Fantasy Feud - $
Fantasy Aces - $4,000

He isn't going to make a ton of birdies and contend anytime soon but has been an absolute cut machine lately. He has made 12 of 13 cuts so far in 2016 in five straight. He fits nicely in my stats model with a good rank in Good Drive %, Par 4 Scoring, and he is a good scrambler and putter. At a low $6K price range and cut making ability he is a safe option that allows you to pay up in the top tier in your cash games this week.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 112
• Ball Striking - 111
• Good Drive % - 63
• Proximity from 175-200 Yards - 38
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 51
• Par 5 Scoring Average - 96
• Scrambling - 51
• Bogey Avoidance - 69
• Birdie or Better % - 127
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 62

 

Also Consider - Jhonattan Vegas(GPP), Vijay Singh(Cash)

 

Arnold Palmer Invitational Update Thread

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Arnold Palmer Invitational? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.