Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/14/16

We come off a short slate Sunday with a 9 game Monday slate that's full of intrigue. The Memphis situation is still bananas, the Bulls might start an entire D-League team, Brandon Knight just played huge minutes in Phoenix, the Warriors could score 140 points against the Pelicans... oy. Not an easy day to take on the daily fantasy basketball world. Let's wade in and see what we can pull out of this quagmire.

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POINT GUARD

Brandon Knight - FD 6600 DK 7200
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 32.34 DK Proj. Pts - 34.54
He was right back up to his old ones against the Warriors, putting up 20 shots in 37 minutes and a huge fantasy total (46 FanDuel points). It's a fine match-up with the Timberwolves - they've allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season - and it should shock exactly no one if he goes off here once again. The only real risk in play is him getting reduced minutes for some sort of precautionary reason (since he's still not that far away from a long stretch of missed games due to injury), but I'm ready to call him safe for double-ups.

Ricky Rubio - FD 6600 DK 6200
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 35.67 DK Proj. Pts - 36.81
A lower upside, higher floor version of Brandon Knight. Rubio's got 3 double-digit assist games in his last 4 contests, and has been consistently crashing the boards and getting in the lane as well. The Suns, meanwhile, have been simply horrendous against point guards this season, allowing the 2nd most most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. One particular note before we proceed - he's 1k cheaper than Knight on DraftKings. You should probably just play him there.

Shelvin Mack - FD 4300 DK 4800
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 23.66 DK Proj. Pts - 25.3
Mack's stock continues to rise, but his price isn't rising quite quickly enough. He paid 5x+ points per dollar against the Warriors, and 7x+ against the Kings and Wizards. It's all sustainable, too. He's handling the ball a lot, and both dishing assists and scoring at rates commensurate with his career rates. This is a really boring way to say, he's just underpriced relative to what he's been doing recently. The Cavaliers are playing tough right now, but they do have a defense weakness at point guard (to say it nicely). Mack should have a high floor today, and some ceiling as well if the Jazz keep it close.

Strongly considered: Russell Westbrook. He's underrated at his current price based on some bad shooting and turnover luck, and he's a particularly bad match-up for Damian Lillard, who will have no chance to stay in front of him.

SHOOTING GUARD

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 5300 DK 5300
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 25.03 DK Proj. Pts - 27.52
On a big slate with a lot of question marks, KCP looks like the safest guy going with also a nice match-up. He hasn't played less than 36 minutes since February 24th, and has paid 5x-7x points per game in each of his last 4 games. The Wizards have played a top 5 PACE all season, and it doesn't hurt that he'll either be up against the Wizards' back-ups or a hobbled Bradley Beal.

Wesley Matthews - FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.12 DK Proj. Pts - 26.32
More of an upside play than a 50/50 play, but Matthews is criminally underpriced for his upside largely due to his tendency to disappear. He paid 8x against the Pacers, but scored just 17 fantasy points in the previous two games. I have a feeling this will be one of his big games. The Hornets have had trouble defending the shooting guard position and the perimeter all season - they've allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season in spite of playing a below average pace. Not safe, no, but upside for miles.

Will Barton - FD 5900 DK 5900
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 26.92 DK Proj. Pts - 28
If Matthews feels a little too risky for you, I'd take a look at Will Barton. It's easy to lose track of what normal rotations are in Denver since they seem to have randomly started to blow teams out, but he was playing 30-34 minute rotations in Gallo's absence until the last 3 games, and that seems like a reasonable forecast going forward. If he plays 30 minutes, he's a value play given the role he has to play in the Nuggets offense. Wade can dial it up defensively when he wants to, but he's ailing a bit, and may even miss this one. Barton's volume should give him a high floor, and while the upside is very questionable, I can see rolling him out in a 50/50 just to avoid the uncertainty of some other plays.

Also considered for safety reasons: Klay Thompson. He should be involved heavily in the Warriors offense even if they do blow the Pels out, and he might be safer than Barton. I just don't like spending up at a pretty crappy position.

Keep an eye on the Bulls situation: It's impossible to say what's going to happen right now. Will Rose play? Will Butler? If they sit again, Justin Holiday got a lot of run (and played well). I'd love to play him if both of those guys are out again. E'Twaun Moore would also be a great play if both missed, and a reasonable play if just one of them played.

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SMALL FORWARD

Andrew Wiggins - FD 6300 DK 6200
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 30.61 DK Proj. Pts - 31.45
Good lord, this is a juicy spot to grab Wiggins. He's a player on the rise, averaging 35 fantasy points per game in his last 4 contests, and he's done so with a consistent offering of low 20s points, 4-5 rebounds, and a handful of assists and defensive stats to go with them. And now he'll have the best match-up he's had in a while - the Suns have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season. Great safety, huge upside.

Kevin Durant - FD 10500 DK 10500
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 48.57 DK Proj. Pts - 51.37
On a day that's bristling with uncertainty, I'm going to spend up as safely as possible. And to me? That's KD. Yes, he's coming off a couple of off games. But in the 6 games before that, Durant averaged a staggering 57 fantasy points per game. Aminu is a fine defender, but he lacks the wingspan to properly contest Durant on the wings, and I think the Thunder go to him early and often.

Matt Barnes - FD 5400 DK 5600
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 28.4 DK Proj. Pts - 30.88
When we're digging around for value plays, we're looking for 2 things:

1) Newly found opportunity (everyone's hurt on the Grizzlies: check).
2) A great match-up (The Rockets have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season: check).

Barnes had a bad game against the Hawks, but he put up fifty eight fantasy points against the Pelicans. I'm splitting the difference here, and figuring Barnes will have a high quality outing against a lousy defensive team.

If Wade misses this one both Luol Deng and Justise Winslow are terrific plays once again.

POWER FORWARD

Taj Gibson - FD 5100 DK 4400
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 28.43 DK Proj. Pts - 28.9
Bobby Portis - FD 3800 DK 4000
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 19.15 DK Proj. Pts - 19.76
Finally, a position with a little bit of sanity. With Gasol already ruled out, both of these guys should rate to see increased minutes and an increased role in the offense. The blowout risk is very real, of course, but these guys are borderline free, so I'm not sure what you're really supposed to do here. Gibson is obviously a lot safer (since he'll likely get the start), but both should have tremendous upside here.

Tobias Harris - FD 6100 DK 6300
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 31.36 DK Proj. Pts - 33.15
Tobias has been the vision of consistency in the month of March, scoring no fewer than 28 fantasy points in any given contest. The Wizards haven't been awful against power forwards this season, but Markieff is a step back defensively from Nene, and should have a tough time trailing Harris around the perimeter. The Wizards have played the 5th fastest PACE in the league this season, and I think Harris hits this projection almost exactly.

JaMychal Green - FD 6200 DK 6200
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 31.7 DK Proj. Pts - 32.23
Green took a step back against the Hawks, but with Randolph likely to miss Monday's game against the Rockets, he should step back into his role as the fantasy flavor-of-the-day. He's essentially a high upside version of Tobias Harris, but with a lower floor. JaMychal has a terrific match-up with the Rockets, who have allowed the very most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season, and I think you can play him in any format.

Also considered: Anthony Davis. Sort of the elephant in the room, for our projection system. If he plays his full run of minutes, this is an awesome match-up for him. I could see a 60+ fantasy point game coming here, but I could also see a total collapse. I just know he'll be in our optimal lineups though (because he's probably a favorite to play his full run of minutes), so I figured I should let you know, here.

 

CENTER

Steven Adams - FD 4200 DK 3800
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 20.13 DK Proj. Pts - 20.5
God, center is grizzly today. When in doubt, I try to spend down at bad positions. Spending down today could have a number of faces - Tyson Chandler looks decent, as does Meyers Leonard. But I'm most intrigued by Adams. He's been playing 27-30 minutes per game in close contests, and that's more than enough time for him to put up 10 and 8 with 2 blocks or whatever. Portland is positively undermanned down low, and he could run it up in a hurry. And if he doesn't? Well, he's cheap, and that gives him a lot more safety than if you go ahead and spend up on a guy who pays 3x on a much higher price.

Karl-Anthony Towns - FD 8800 DK 7900
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 41.66 DK Proj. Pts - 42.38
Another guy who should be a huge benefactor of Phoenix's lackadaisical defense and blistering pace, Towns has a tendency to go off in great match-ups and disappear in bad ones. Chandler has historically been a great defender, but he's definitively lost a step this season, and Towns plays great in transition. I don't think you can call Towns safe here (just because he will have bad games), but he should be a top consideration for big tournaments.

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