Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/13/16

After a frantic Saturday, it's nice to settle into a nice 4 game slate. I'll be ignoring the early game here because, who plays the 3:30 Sunday game? If you happen to, projections for those guys are in the lineup optimizer, but this article will focus mostly on the 6 PM EST and later NBA games today. There's blessed little total uncertainty today, so hopefully we can get a solid footing to make some great picks. Let's get started!

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POINT GUARD

Jerryd Bayless - FD 4200 DK 4700
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 26.57 DK Proj. Pts - 27.77
You'll know a little bit more about this pick when you're reading this than I do when writing it, since you'll have the benefit of knowing how many minutes Bayless played on Saturday. If he's back in the high 30s once again, he's a great 50/50 play, especially against a Brooklyn team that's allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. But really, just a price and opportunity mismatch.

Darren Collison - FD 5300 DK 4900
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.33 DK Proj. Pts - 28.74
Rajon Rondo - FD 8300 DK 7800
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 37.89 DK Proj. Pts - 38.56
Both of these guys are playing huge minutes for George Karl right now, and while Rondo is the only actual point guard listed here, both have a better match-up than you might think. Shelvin Mack has done a nice job for the Jazz in a lot of ways, but he's not a defense-first point guard (as evidenced by the Jazz's league average ranking vs. PGs in spite of their league slowest PACE), and Rondo is hurt less by the tough interior defense than a lot of point guards on account of his propensity to dish it when he gets in the lane. Of the top 40 NBA players in drives per game, only Ish Smith passes at a higher frequency than Rondo's 42.3% number. Colllison, meanwhile, is just under-priced for his 36+ minutes per minute right now. Love them both.

Shelvin Mack - FD 4300 DK 4600
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 21.44 DK Proj. Pts - 22.96
Hey! The other side of this equation. Yes, Mack's not a strong defender, but he seems to finally be getting comfortable running the Jazz offense. He's paid 5x-8x points per dollar on these FanDuel prices in 4 of his last 5 games, and had a season high 27 regular points in his last game. He'll also have the benefit of one of the best match-ups in the league - the Kings have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. Should be a huge floor for him in this one.

SHOOTING GUARD

Monta Ellis - FD 6600 DK 6100
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 30.42 DK Proj. Pts - 31.62
If you're looking for safety on a short slate today, Ellis has simply got to be the guy. His minutes are entirely assured right now, and he's riding a wave of increased productivity that frankly looks sustainable. He's added more assists thanks to handling the ball more, and has been chipping in more hustle stats than usual as well. As a result, he's paid 5.5x points per dollar or better in each of his last 3 games, and there's no reason to believe he won't be able to do that against Kyle Korver and the Hawks on Sunday. Fantastic double up play.

Rodney Hood - FD 5500 DK 5100
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 25.26 DK Proj. Pts - 27.45
Hood jumped right back into the fray for the Jazz on Friday, and while his 23 FanDuel fantasy points were nothing to right home about, the 34 minutes were an excellent sign. The Kings are as generous to opposing shooting guards as they are to opposing point guards, allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. And that'll only get worse as Darren Collison (a natural PG) continues to chew up mid thirties minutes per game at the position. Hood is actually a particularly bad match-up for Collison because of his size (6'8'') and his high release. He should be able to get whatever shot he wants against the diminutive King, and should have huge upside here (assuming he plays).

Jordan Clarkson - FD 5800 DK 6100
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 27.93 DK Proj. Pts - 29.09
Clarkson has slid right into a 35 minute per game rotation, and it's a fantastic sign that he played 34 minutes against Cleveland even with Kobe back. Let's not be totally discouraged by his 11.7 fantasy point output against the Cavs - Clarkson still got 12 shots in the air, and his only making 2 of them is more an aberration than anything else. I'd be a little concerned to deploy him in double-ups if Kobe is back, but it's fairly slim pickings at the position.

If Arron Afflalo sits, Vujacic is a good upside play once again.

Baseball season is almost here. Check out the bottom of the article for our MLB ebook on setting daily fantasy baseball lineups as well as our MLB DFS strategy articles coming in the next couple weeks.

SMALL FORWARD

Carmelo Anthony - FD 8900 DK 8300
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 43.81 DK Proj. Pts - 46.09
From slim pickings, to endless bounty! Okay, I might be overstating things. Still, small forward has a number of solid options today, and Melo is foremost among them. Anthony has been playing an astounding 39-43 minutes per game in non-blowouts, and has maintained his elite usage during that time. The Lakers, meanwhile, are the 2nd best match-up for opposing small forwards this season. The numbers only tell a partial tale here, as well. The Lakers have been rolling with a 3 guard lineup, trying to start Kobe at the 3. He can't come close to covering Melo at this stage in his career, and this could be a monster.

Gordon Hayward - FD 6900 DK 6900
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 33.53 DK Proj. Pts - 35.65
Hayward's likely to be a chalk play today, but some will be scared away by the Jazz's last two contests. You shouldn't be. Hayward lost minutes due to both games being blowouts, but had been very steadily playing 37-38 per game before that. In those games he flexed a 4.5 points per dollar floor with 6x points per dollar upside, and this will be his best match-up of the bunch. The Kings' futility against small forwards is topped only by the Lakers, Rockets, and Suns, and Hayward should be ripe to go off here.

Kent Bazemore - FD 4900 DK 5100
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 23.22 DK Proj. Pts - 24.53
If you need a cheaper option at the position today, Baze makes for a solid one. He's playing a very consistent 29-31 minutes per game for the Hawks, and blends average scoring with above average rebounding for his position, making him a high floor (if low upside) play on any given night. I like the above two plays much more, but haven't really run the optimizer to see if I'll be able to afford both tomorrow. The Hawks' small forward would be a decent consolation prize.

Also considered: Paul George, though I prefer Melo in a similar price range.

POWER FORWARD

Derrick Favors - FD 7300 DK 7100
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 36.56 DK Proj. Pts - 37.03
I could rewrite everything I wrote about Hayward for Favors as well, but I'll spare you the time. Favors had been crushing cats before the recent dip in production (thanks to a dip in minutes, just like Hayward), including a monster 56 point outburst against the Hawks in early March. Today he'll be up against a much worse gang of defenders, and he'll have the benefit of playing against the league's fastest team. More possessions equals more of all of the various things Favors does well, and he's my favorite overall play in the middling price range today. He's not a guy I'll punt away from.

Thaddeus Young - FD 6900 DK 6700
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 34.5 DK Proj. Pts - 35.84
It's always a little weird recommending two guys around the same price point, but on short slates, you get what you get. The case for Thad is pretty strong, though. He was back to vintage pre-injury form against the Sixers, putting up 21/9/2 with 2 steals in a huge 40 minutes of play. Today he'll get the Bucks, who have really struggled against power forwards like Young this season, allowing the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season. Jabari Parker is rounding into a great offensive player, but he just hasn't come around on the defensive end quite yet, and the veteran Young should have a solid performance here.

Also considered: Julius Randle.

CENTER

Ian Mahinmi - FD 5200 DK 4700
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.85 DK Proj. Pts - 25.29
Man, I really like Ian Mahinmi today, but I'm scared I won't get to play him on account of it being so hard to spend up on this slate. If you've not been following Mahinmi's work, he's back to playing a 31 minute rotation, and he's doing it very well. He had an off night against the Mavs, paying just 20 fantasy points, but put up 30 or more in 3 of the 4 games prior - just terrific production on these prices. His unassuming game has a lot in the industry sleeping on him, and he makes for a great off-beat big tourney play if you think that will be the case again tonight.

Al Horford - FD 7100 DK 6800
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 34.73 DK Proj. Pts - 35.32
As I'm writing this, Horford is abusing Memphis' joke of a center situation. While the Pacers don't suffer the same affliction at the moment, they're basically a league average match-up. Horford is not a whole lot more than the solid but unspectacular guy you can slide in if you don't totally trust Mahinmi.

Also considered: Rudy Gobert. I kind of like him more than Horford, honestly, but you can only play so many Jazz, and he's the one I'd leave off if I had to choose.

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