Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/12/16

An atypical big Saturday slate going here in which most of the games are coming up in the evening. Screw you college basketball for forcing the NBA into this kind of TV schedule. That inferior product effecting my viewing habits is unacceptable. Alas, we forge ahead.

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POINT GUARD

Go cheap my friends. Go cheap.

Jerryd Bayless - FD 4200 DK 4500
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 26.34 DK Proj. Pts - 27.51
How about this guy for a leap of faith. Bayless was a little bit of terrible last game even with 40+ minutes as he put up a 6/3/2 line. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of course, but the Bucks are without many true backcourt guys and Kidd is fine playing Bayless a ton of minutes. The Pelicans are a bottom five defense this season and I don't see anyone really challenging Jerryd's time on ball. His price is still near the basement relative to minutes' expectation and he doesn't have to do much to hit value.

Toney Douglas - FD 3600 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 22.24 DK Proj. Pts - 23.51
He's close to a must play if Norris Cole sits again. Douglas played an OT-aided 42 minutes last night and finished with a 12/7/6 line that saw him putting up 15 shots. That kind of usage is basically unheard of at these prices and I wouldn't hesitate to run him everywhere as long as Cole was out of the mix. It's that latter part that has me mildly concerned so we'll wait on news throughout the day.

C.J. Watson - FD 3600 DK 3400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 18.67 DK Proj. Pts - 19.96
If he draws the start again for Elfrid then I'm willing to go this way again. Watson isn't a high ceiling guy because he doesn't shoot enough and the offense runs a little more through just about everyone else. But he's got a high floor if he's running another 30+ minutes from the point. Keep an ear out for Payton news leading into this one.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 11000 DK 10600
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 51.99 DK Proj. Pts - 55.06
He struggled in the first half against the Celtics yesterday though came back in the second to make his line respectable. Harden is in a good matchup today with one of the highest expected total game points going in a a matchup expected (by Vegas standards) to stay relatively close. On DraftKings he's a fantastic value while on FanDuel I think you end up seeing him optimal cash game lineups because of the size of the slate. Harden's ability to get to the free throw line keeps his floor ever so high on a night-to-night basis because of the "free" points. The price has climbed but it's still a positive expenditure on this slate.

Victor Oladipo - FD 7000 DK 7500
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 33.89 DK Proj. Pts - 35.48
As long as he doesn't get Skile'd then Dipo is a full go for me tonight. Though turnover prone, Oladipo makes up for that by contributing in just about every aspect of the fantasy stat line. Portland runs a slower pace mostly because it takes them a long time to get in their offensive sets, but they make up for it (from an opposition point of view) by playing below average defense. Don't get me wrong, the Blazers are a decent team but we can target them in DFS as they've been below average against opposing twos.

Lance Stephenson - FD 4200 DK 4800
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 19.44 DK Proj. Pts - 20.65
With the Memphis backcourt is a state of disarray it looks like Lance might be coming out the other side as the guy who'll see the most ball-handling duties. Last night (with an OT thrown in) he went 33/7/4 . Now I don't expect him to shoot 60% from the field like he did against the Pelicans, but it's not unreasonable to consider him getting a majority of the point guard duties in this one. Lance is an enigma, but he can be a mystery at these prices if the run is in the mid 30's.
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SMALL FORWARD

Matt Barnes - FD 4800 DK 5300
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 26.36 DK Proj. Pts - 28.53
Barnes ran a ton of minutes yesterday for a severely undermanned Memphis team who's without a bunch of guys right now. Barnes' jack-of-all-trades makeup allows him a decent floor because he can cover both the four and three for Memphis. He'll put up three on offense and does contribute in other areas of the stat sheet. He's an easy play at his price point considering the minutes expectation. Atlanta isn't a team likely to run away with a game in a blowout even with Memphis hurting in a bad way.

Evan Fournier - FD 5500 DK 6100
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 27.65 DK Proj. Pts - 30.55
The Fourn-dog is a guy we're going to be on as long as he's getting those sweet minutes from Coach Scottie. The DK price has climbed a bit beyond the point of no return, but FanDuel's still fully in play. Skiles has shown the willingness to play both Fournier and Dipo for long stretches because the Magic don't have logical fits that can transition between the two and three on offense. I like Fournier's floor a great deal assuming the run is there.

Nicolas Batum - FD 6900 DK 7000
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 33.16 DK Proj. Pts - 35.38
I really think he's going to see major minutes in this game, like over 40 and that's a great thing because the Rockets are a bottom third team on defense this season and struggle against both shooting guards and small forwards. Batum trends toward the latter now that the Hornets have both Courtney Lee and Jeremy Lin in the two, but it's worth noting Houston just struggles all around. This game has one of the highest scoring expectations on the night and Batum stands to have a high floor.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 10300 DK 9800
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 53.08 DK Proj. Pts - 53.89
In terms of the big money, it's all Brow for me tonight. Westbrook and Durant are in a real tough defensive matchup against the Spurs which takes away some of the higher tier. Davis on the other hand is still coming at a relevant discount all things considered and even though Holiday does decrease Davis' usage some when they are both on the court together. But it isn't enough to keep Davis out of the mix today. Davis has high upside at these prices and his scoring/rebounding combo along with the potential defensive stats have me loving the price tags.

Tobias Harris - FD 6000 DK 6200
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 32.05 DK Proj. Pts - 33.87
Easily the top play at power forward today and I'll have a lot of Tobias in my cash game life. Harris doesn't offer a ton of upside because of how the Piston offense operates. It's a sharing community and they don't focus on one guy enough for him to hit the stratosphere with his scoring. And the way Drummond dominates the boards, Harris can't really bust it out of the box. But his floor is as high as it gets in this price tier and you should anchor him down for safety.

Carl Landry - FD 3600 DK 3200
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 20.86 DK Proj. Pts - 21.16
This is a spec play but working under the assumption that Jerami Grant and/or Covington has to sit today. Both were hurt on the same play yesterday when Grant inadvertently kicked Covington in the face sending the latter out on a stretcher. It was a scary looking moment. Landry came in and played a ton of minutes as the Sixers are without many bigs with those two out and Okafor lost for the season.

CENTER

Andre Drummond - FD 8600 DK 7900
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 40.52 DK Proj. Pts - 41.26
Philly's been crushed by opposing centers this season and they don't have much in the way of stopping Drummond tonight. Starting Nerlens at center and a small ball lineup behind him should lead the way for Andre getting his early and often. Now the problem with Drummond isn't the points per minute, but rather the minutes in general. SVG's been loosy-goosy with Drummond's run and he can show up with a 27 minute game just as easily as one in the mid 30's. In fact, last time he played the Sixers Drummond only went 27 minutes, but still put up a 12/18 line. I'm running with him because I love the matchup and hoping he sees the run.

Marcin Gortat - FD 7000 DK 6800
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 32.19 DK Proj. Pts - 32.71
Another guy I'd love, love if I just knew he'd be in there a requisite amount of minutes. Sure, I know you can make a similar claim for just about every player in basketball, but let's just pretend it's only relevant to Gortat for a second. Denver's allowed more than average points to opposing centers though they've controlled them on the glass this season. Gortat stands to get more run if the Wiz are playing short-handed again, but he's not a safe play.

Consider Al Horford

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