Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
Good Sam 500

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Good Sam 500

Phoenix International Raceway - Avondale, Arizona
Track - 1 Mile Tri Oval Short Track with 9-11° Banking in the Corners

It was Brad Keselowski passing Kyle Busch with six laps to go to take home the checkered flag at the Kobalt 400 in Las Vegas last weekend. The drivers battled more than each other on Sunday as Las Vegas experienced higher than normal winds and even seen a giant sand storm that lasted several minutes. If you missed the race you can check out a quick recap video from NASCAR.com below:

 

We are now three races into the 2016 NASCAR season and the Top 12 in standings are as follows:

1. #18 Kyle Busch
2. #48 Jimmie Johnson
3. #4 Kevin Harvick
4. #22 Joey Logano
5. #41 Kurt Busch
6. #2 Brad Keselowski
7. #19 Carl Edwards
8. #11 Denny Hamlin
9. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
10. #3 Austin Dillon

Not much for surprises until we get to the 10 spot where Austin Dillon sits. He has been terrific in the #3 RCR Chevrolet with one Top 5 and two Top 10 finishes. It is very early in the season and no doubt this weekend will shake the standings up once again.

The NASCAR haulers have packed up and headed to Arizona for the Good Sam 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. The track is a 1 Mile Tri Oval Short Track with 9° - 11° of banking in the corners. Phoenix is one of four flat tracks(New Hampshire, Martinsville, Richmond) on the circuit but brings the best comparison to New Hampshire. Similar drivers will have success at these types of tracks. Some say death and taxes are the only guarantee in life. I would add one more. Kevin Harvick will dominate Phoenix. If not for a rain shortened race last fall, he would probably have won his 5th straight race here. If you are not using Harvick in your lineups this weekend you are doing it wrong. Re evaluate everything! Seriously!

I will again be selling a cheatsheet every week of the NASCAR season. It will include drivers, salaries for DraftKings and FantasyFeud, post qualifying Vegas Odds, current form(last 5 races), track history(last 5 races), and I update the cheatsheet throughout the weekend following practice and qualifying. With the purchase of the cheatsheet you also get a few sample lineups. These lineups will almost always change following qualifying and practice so be sure to check lineup page before lineups lock on Sunday.

Let's dig in and look at some targets for this week. Be sure to check back following Final Practice on Saturday as I will have a recap of the weekend leading up to the race and go through some values that pop up from qualifying/practice.

 

Upper Tier Targets ($9,500+)

 

Kevin Harvick 
DraftKings - $10,800
Fantasy Feud - $270,000
Practice #1 - 5th
Qualified - 18th
Practice #2 - 2nd
Final Practice - 1st

He pretty much owns Phoenix International Speedway. He has won four of the last five races here and finished runner up last fall in a rain shortened event. In those five years he has also lead 925 laps which leads NASCAR by a mile as the next closest driver(Joey Logano) has only 156 laps lead. He was 5th fastest in first practice but has issues in qualifying and will start on the 9th row on Sunday presenting tremendous upside for place differential(possible 17 points). He should also be able to get to the front early and have a shot at even more bonus points with laps led. If he isn't over 70% owned in most formats I will be shocked.

 

Joey Logano
DraftKings - $9,900
Fantasy Feud - $230,000
Practice #1 - 3rd
Qualified - 9th
Practice #2 - 9th
Final Practice - 9th

After Kevin Harvick there is nice group of drivers who consistently finish behind him. Joey Logano leads this group with two Top 5 finishes and a 6.0 average finish over the past five races at Phoenix. He has lead the second most laps(156) and has finished every race inside the Top 10. Penske racing has found a whole lot of speed recently and is coming off a 1/2 finish in Las Vegas. Look for them to contend again on Sunday with Logano starting 9th and Keselowski starting 19th.

 

 

Kyle Busch
DraftKings - $10,000
Fantasy Feud - $235,000
Practice #1 - 8th
Qualified - 1st
Practice #2 - 19th
Final Practice - 3rd

The defending Sprint Cup Champion hasn't shown any signs of slowing down in 2016. With Top 5 finishes in all three races Kyle leads the points standings and will look for win #1 this season Sunday afternoon. It was a great start to the weekend as he was 8th fastest in Practice #1 and followed that up by winning the pole. He hasn't won a race at Phoenix since 2005 when he was a part of the Hendrick team but will have a great shot at winning this week with a fast car. While there is no upside with place differential there is upside for a ton of laps led and fastest laps.

Also Consider - Jimmie Johnson(Starting from the Back), Brad Keselowski

Middle Tier Targets ($7,000-$9,500)

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
DraftKings - $9,200
Fantasy Feud - $170,000
Practice #1 - 24th
Qualified - 26th
Practice #2 - 6th
Final Practice - 14t

It was a rough start to the weekend for the #88 team as they haven't showed much speed....yet. He was 24th in Practice #1 and qualified 26th. I would expect them to have things straightened out throughout the final two practices on Saturday. In the past five years Dale Jr. has been one of the better drivers with three Top 5's, four Top 10's and a 11.6 average finish.  He also won the rain shortened race here last fall. Terrific upside with place differential points as he should have a Top 10 car at least.

 

 

Ryan Newman
DraftKings - $7,500
Fantasy Feud - $120,000
Practice #1 - 19th
Qualified - 20th
Practice #2 - 28th
Final Practice -  18th

Before qualifying I had Newman on my value list at a mid $7K price tag and great track history. He has tallied a Top 5, three Top 10's and a 8.4 average finish here at Phoenix over the past five races. Stay tuned to the final two practices on Saturday to see if the #31 team can get some good speed out of the car in race trim. They didn't unload well on Friday with a 19th rank in first practice but will be safe in any format for fantasy as he qualified 20th and will provide upside for place differential.

 

Also Consider - Kasey Kahne(Starting from the Rear), Jamie McMurray

 

 

Low End Targets

 

Ty Dillon
DraftKings - $5,400
Fantasy Feud - $100,000
Practice #1 - 31st
Qualified - 28th
Practice #2 - 14th
Final Practice - 26th

At minimum price he makes a great stars and scrubs GPP play. He is filling in for the Tony Stewart in the #14 Chevrolet and will be starting 28th on Sunday. He is in terrific equipment and if he can avoid a wreck he should be able to finish inside his starting position and earn a few place differential bonus points and 15-20 finish position points. If he allows us to roster two or three elite drivers we can handle 20-30 fantasy points from the younger Dillon brother.

 

Also Consider - Trevor Bayne, Casey Mears

 

 

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

Qualifying Top 10

1. #18 Kyle Busch
2. #19 Carl Edwards
3. #11 Denny Hamlin
4. #41 Kurt Busch
5. #20 Matt Kenseth
6. #42 Kyle Larson
7. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
8. #22 Joey Logano
9.  # 17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
10. #1 Jamie McMurray

 

 

 

 

Good Sam 500 Update Thread

 

 

That's gonna do it for #GoodSam500 practices! pic.twitter.com/Wns6JEL6Ja

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) March 12, 2016

 

 

 

If you have any questions on lineups or drivers prior to lineup lock scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.

 

Good Luck everyone!

 

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Good Sam 500? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings and FantasyFeud Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.