Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Basketball Injury News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/11/16
Welcome to the daily updates and injury news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock tonight.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
What We Know
Zach LaVine is a little dinged up
It looks like he'll play, but it's not a great sign that he's coming out and saying his shoulder is a "little messed up." He's a great play per our projection system right now, but acknowledging an injury introduces that much more risk into the picture.
Mike Conley and Mario Chalmers are both out
But as to how this affects the Grizzlies, man, it's anyone's guess for now. They signed Briante Weber, but he's not eligible for DFS at this point. Right now, we're just speculating. I mean, outside of Weber, they really don't have anyone besides Lance Stephenson who could conceivably dribble the ball up the court. For now I'm assuming Lance will get a huge amount of run this game, and I'll be very likely to deploy him tonight.
Jason Smith will start again with Nikola Vucevic out
The Magic have kind of just split Vuc's minutes up across handful of guys, and haven't been playing Smith enough to make him a dynamite play. Still, it's a nice match-up with the Kings, and Smith should play 24 minutes and play a reasonably large role in the offense.
Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley Stein will see increased run with Boogie out
It's still going to be tough to parse exactly where all of the big man's minutes will go, but Koufos has been the biggest beneficiary in the past. Cousins' shots are a more interesting matter. Rudy Gay has become a great play in the past with Cousins out, as his usage jumps about 30%.
Arron Afflalo is out again
Last time around we got a huge dose of Sasha Vujacic, who put up 30 fantasy points on 32 minutes. Things were a little warped since the Knicks blew the pathetic Suns out of the water, but it was clear that Rambis was happy with the way Vujacic was playing. I'd also keep an eye on Langston Galloway, who may have played more minutes if the game hadn't been out of hand.
Elfrid Payton is out, CJ Watson is starting
With Payton now ruled out, both Watson and Brandon Jennings move into the "interesting" category. Watson was good on these prices in 25 minutes in the Magic's last game, and if he's going to play 30+ minutes, he could be a great play. But can we really rely on anything but a time share? I'm not totally sure.
What We're Waiting to Know
Jimmy Butler is out, and Derrick Rose might be out
Butler has been officially ruled out, but now we're getting word that Rose might miss this one as well. It's a bad match-up with a slow paced Miami team, but Rose's usage skies to 31.5 with Butler off the court this season, assuming he plays. Even in a bad match-up, this will likely give him a reasonable floor tonight. If Rose misses this game as well we'll see a lot of E'Twaun Moore minutes and usage, and also huge usage for Pau Gasol. The are also a few other Bulls who could see run, like Justin Holiday, but Aaron Brooks would likely be the main ball handler. If Aaron Brooks is named the starter, he's a terrific play.
Zach Randolph's status
It looks like Z-Bo will miss another one here, but it's not been entirely confirmed just yet. JaMychal Green has been on a whirlwind tour of devastation, but his price has climbed dramatically. I'll probably pass on him even in a nice match-up with the Pelicans at those prices, though I understand if you want to take a shot on him.
Dwyane Wade missed shoot-around, and is a game time decision
This is huge, obviously, because Wade has used a ton of the Heat's possessions since Bosh went down. If he's gone, this opens up a huge opportunity for Gerald Green, and frees up a lot more shots for Luol Deng and Goran Dragic as well.
Bradley Beal's status
He missed Thursday's practice, but he did travel with the team to Utah, so there's a chance we see him tonight. If he's out, give bumps to John Wall and Garrett Temple, though it's not a great match-up with the slow-paced Jazz, who pair a slow pace with great interior defense.
Rodney Hood is doubtful
Unfortunately, the only game we have with Hood out of the lineup came against the Warriors, who screwed up our ability to analyze the Jazz's intentions by blowing them out of the water. Chris Johnson got the start, but played just 19 relatively crappy minutes. Trey Burke and Raul Neto also saw a little increase in run, but nothing to make them especially fantasy relevant. If I had to guess, I'd say that Burke was likely to be the primary beneficiary before things got out of hand.
The "Every Lineup" Guys
Here are the players that wind up in each of the top 10 lineups produced by our lineup optimizer.
Anthony Davis - FD 10300 DK 9800
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 51.74 DK Proj. Pts - 52.52
Anthony Davis will be up against... who exactly? JaMychal Green? A broken down Zach Randolph? Davis was in this section in his last game against Charlotte, and he put up 63 fantasy points. Here's the thing - Davis is simply a fantasy super-star, and he's priced like something in the tier just below because of his injury worries this season. When he plays, he plays huge minutes unless he has to exit early. Unless you have a great way to predict that, he's probably just a fantastic play here.
Rudy Gay - FD 6700 DK 6000
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 37.06 DK Proj. Pts - 38.54
Kosta Koufos - FD 3500 DK 3000
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 19.79 DK Proj. Pts - 20.13
Cousins leaves a gaping hole in the Sacramento offense, and this creates a huge price/opportunity mismatch for both of these guys.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below - on us! You can also get started with DFSR pro - our brand new lineup optimizer!
image sources
- Joey Dorsey, DeMarcus Cousins: (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)
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Happy Birthday Brow
Carter is going to be the scorer tonight for mem….hes old yes but watching him hes the smartest and best player they have so i think hes going to come out firing…stephenson is a piece of crap…i found myself rolling my eyes watching him bc hes just not good…brick after brick….taking a huge flier on carter tonight bc i think he will be the man tonight along with jaymychal…they are the only ones i see worthy of playing from mem
Vince Carter wasn’t bad after Chalmers went down, I am roster him Stephenson and Allen. Hard not to when they only have 8 players left.
I agree the minutes will be there for Allen. That said IMO Allen and Barnes ate at best atrocious ball players and at worst completely incapable. These guys need 35+ mins and even then you’re sweating your ass off. Stephenson is a great play though.
Neither Barnes nor Allen can do anything close to running the offense, agreed.
True – Carter is a notable omission from the article. We had updated his minutes, but I didn’t include him here. Nice call.
Any idea if Willie Cauley-Stein gets more tonight than Koufos? He’s been bitter about his playing time recently and this may open up a good opportunity
It’s plausible, but I wouldn’t count on it – especially with the huge pile of great punts out there tonight. Still, great GPP play since the upside is there for sure.
Douglas Top cheap punt of day?
Good Point! He’s showing up low in ratings bc the line is low but everything else is pegged up high….when hes the offense who cares what the line is…especially when hes a lock for 15 shots and 15 reb….as it sits now hes a usage of 24..once rose is ruled out it should jump to 29 or 30..which would make him underpriced for his usage and min
Gasol averaged around 48 points on Fanduel the 4 games in Feb that Rose and Butler both missed this year. Is he the top non-punt play at C tonight now?
Moore is locked into more minutes at the moment…personally id go with moore….you saw what he did in san antonio? Hes got hustle and hes just a better player imo. If stephenson was a better player hed be locked for 35 min but hes not…and thats for a reason
Has Rose been ruled out or is he still questionable, aka doubtful? Even with the match up considered? Or i have 300 extra dollars i could go up and get Tony Allen. Thanks.
Given the injuries to Memphis and Chicago, who looks like the safer play, Stephenson, or Moore?
This one is close for me. Probably Moore.
Man there is punt plays everywhere!! looks like a 400 is needed to win tonight…and a 315 to crack the moneyline….fun night!!
That sounds about right. This many cheap plays and the scores are going to trend all the way up.
chalk plays tonight? i agree with ones he put above…they are in my lineup.
Gay
Davis
Kuofos
Even Vladipo…contrarian of McCollum but think this is Lillards game to dominate
these guys are locks for me and im sure all the top lineups tonight will include them as well. Thanks guys!
What you guys think about Brook Lopez tonight? I know a lot of sites are loving Thad but I think Lopez could put up big points and boards tonight
I was surprised our system didn’t like him more. Could be more of a price thing. Think he has a high floor.
Rose is out ,
So with all these injuries how you guys feel about
Rondo
Lillard
Moore
Allen
Deng
Gay
Green
Davis
Koufos
WCS or Jason smith
Sullinger put up a monster and Davis is putting up a Dud ?????? horrible PF picks tonight guys
Lol they weren’t “horrible” picks. It’s called an off night for the player. And if you are referring to Anthony Davis I don’t think there is one time they haven’t mentioned his bones are made of shatter glass and he is risky. Also, he put up about 4.5x so if you lost you obviously messed up somewhere else.
Yeah man, my lineups tonight were literally just compilations of these guys’ projections cause I felt really lazy for tonight and I ended up having great scores all around so…