Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/9/16

We have a more robust slate of nine games on Wednesday after a relatively small group Tuesday. As of now, the risk lies with injury concerns more than blowout potential. Our offshore friends have not set the line yet on a third of the games. Those listed have relatively close spreads (single-digit), with UTA/GSW the lone exception. The unlisted games have injury-related issues not likely to be resolved until closer to gametime. Although it’s always crucial to recheck and finalize lineups as close to tipoff as possible, it seems particularly so for Wednesday’s games. As always, these picks reflect the best information we have at the time of writing. With that caveat, off we go!

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POINT GUARD

**Note that this position is absolutely stacked on Wednesday. You’ll have lots of options, and this should make a great spot for pivot plays for those running multiple tourney lineups.**

Mario Chalmers - FD 5300 DK 5200
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.42 DK Proj. Pts - 28.62

With Mike Conley ruled out for at least another game, Chalmers gets the start at the point for the Grizz. With major minutes last time out, he kept his per-minute production up. It’s a terrible matchup (the C’s are literally #1 in DvP on point guards), and he just saw a 15% price spike on DK. Nevertheless, the DFSR system still loves him, as the extended run should more than outweigh the other factors. Mario is a high-floor/high-ceiling play, and I strongly advise you to roll with him in all formats.

Shelvin Mack - FD 3900 DK 4300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 21.53 DK Proj. Pts - 23.21

If Utah can keep it close, Mr. Mack is the play of the night on FanDuel. Admittedly, that’s a big if, but I’d take the Lakers game as an outlier more than a long-term indicator. It’ll be a battle of styles to a great extent, as the Dub’s Showtime-esque troupe welcomes the snail-paced Jazz to town. If the DFSR minutes projection pans out, the upside here is tremendous. Combined with the low prices (near punt on FD – as usual much slower to adjust salaries), you can grab upside and save some cash in one move. He’s also an attractive option on DK, just not a no-brainer.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10600 DK 10800
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 50.97 DK Proj. Pts - 52.75

Any night Russ plays and I’m writing up picks, you’re likely to find him presented prominently, picture and all. It’s a crowded night in the elite segment, with eight guys priced at or above $10k on FD (with a similar tier on DK). They’re all projected to get around 5x production, which is key for large NBA DFS investments. What separates Mr. Westbrook is his consistency, as he comes with the highest floor among the top options. A great matchup with the Clips should be both entertaining and relatively close. If you save elsewhere, squirrel the cash here, then sit back and watch a great game with a (short-term) vested interest.

I’d be remiss not to mention Jose Calderon (with whom the DFSR system is absolutely smitten on DK) as a great tourney option (I expect his ownership levels to be quite low).

 

SHOOTING GUARD

Arron Afflalo - FD 5000 DK 4600
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 24.37 DK Proj. Pts - 26.47

With the Suns on tap and a tight game expected (you don’t see _that_ every day), here is the top-rated shooting guard on FD and DK. From a matchup perspective, I have yet to see Devin Booker display lock-down defensive skills. Overall, Afflalo has been getting consistent minutes and shots, and with those producing consistently. Since the ASB he’s had a pretty hard 4x floor, with several spikes. Based on his recent production, he’s simply underpriced. On DK he’s more or less a must start (he’s discounted nearly 10% relative to FD). A.A. is a solid lower-end option on FD as well.

James Harden - FD 11000 DK 10700
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 51.81 DK Proj. Pts - 54.87

Another pricey option, the Beard gets the Sixers. I can’t quite picture how these teams will match up stylistically, but I’m pretty sure there’ll be shots jacked up all over the place. However it pans out, Harden should get his run – the only time he hasn’t hit 40 minutes since January was against the Suns, when he still got 33 and put up a 5.5x (I’d consider that a worst-case scenario, at least as far as the minutes). His outlook is particularly bright on DK, where he’s rewarded for hitting the 3 and less penalized for his turnovers. Virtually matchup proof, his sheer workload provides a good floor and if he’s hitting from outside (or particularly aggressive getting to the line) then the sky’s the limit. Unlike PG, there are limited good PP$ options at shooting guard, so if the money works, you may want to spend it here.

Nicolas Batum - FD 6700 DK 7000
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 31.93 DK Proj. Pts - 34.13

Nic Batum presents a solid option at a price point midway between Harden and Afflalo. The Hornets have been playing well, and there’s always some blowout risk facing the Pels, but the production has been there the last several games, including a spectacular 8x two games ago against the Pacers, another defense hapless defending shooting guards. Even with a minute or two fewer than the past couple of games, the system likes this play as a high-floor, solid investment with upside. This is a play particularly well-suited for a lineup with a more rounded salary structure.

Again, have to mention that the system loves Avery Bradley on DK (cheaper, bonus for 3PM), where you can consider him another low-ownership tourney option.

 

SMALL FORWARD

Robert Covington - FD 5700 DK 6100
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 29.2 DK Proj. Pts - 32.46

The Cov(e) continues to bring the love in what promises to be a brisk matchup (see above). His price has come up (particularly on DK) after consecutive 7x, 8x, and 6x outings. If the higher salary cuts his output down to 5.5x, I think most of us can live with that. There is some volatility risk here (he is after all a Sixer), but the upside more than justifies the pick. He’s the top PP$ option at the position on FD, where you should just go ahead and pencil him in. He’s also a very strong play on DK.

Carmelo Anthony - FD 9100 DK 8500
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 43.84 DK Proj. Pts - 46.14

‘Melo is a not-quite-elite option on a night with plenty of the latter. It’s a fairly shallow position on FD, where he’s a top PP$ option, and represents a solid opportunity to invest with safety. On DK, he’s priced low enough to be the top option at the position. He’s still far from cheap, but this is where you go if you’re not going to blow cash at the true top end. As mentioned above, a contrarian play on a night with so many high-priced options might be to go with a more balanced lineup (see Nic Batum above).

LeBron James - FD 10100 DK 9900
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 47.51 DK Proj. Pts - 49.56

If you do decide to go Studs-and-Duds, the King is (as always) a viable option. The Cavs haven’t been running anyone out of the gym lately. If they were in high gear, I’d be more worried about blowout risk against a pretty mediocre Kings team. Given current trends, however, I find the risk more than tolerable. He is a top-end option on FD from a PP$ perspective, and more than solid on DK (there are just lots of high PP$ options there). While LBJ is not a sexy pick, his high floor makes him well suited to cash game lineups.

Those DK-only high value targets include Rudy Gay and Trevor Ariza, who also may be under-owned and thus good tourney plays.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 10000 DK 9700
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 49.4 DK Proj. Pts - 50.14

And here we have the usual dilemma: for those with strong stomachs, the DFSR system likes the Brow as the top PP$ option at power forward everywhere. As usual, his floor is quite, well… low. On average, however, he should be able to get full 5x value and quite possibly more. Another option if you want to spend up, he’s sort of the opposite of Westbrook – low floor, high ceiling.

Tobias Harris - FD 5800 DK 6000
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.41 DK Proj. Pts - 29.9

A more reliable option, Harris has been getting a ton of minutes lately. With them, he has been rolling out 5x performances (which is why I can’t fathom why his price down-ticked on DK). He’s got a great matchup, and while the Pace may not be terrific, Dallas is 3rd-worst in the league DvP on power forwards. If you want a reliable mid-priced option, take the unexpected discount, slide Tobias into your lineup, and move along.

Derrick Favors - FD 7600 DK 7500
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 36.99 DK Proj. Pts - 37.47

Notwithstanding the opponent (see Mack, Shelvin above), a reasonably close game will provide tremendous opportunity for D. Favors. I suspect that his upside may depend quite a bit on rotations. Will Utah roll out Gobert-Favors to pound the glass, or will they shy away from pairing them to avoid getting run around in circles by the smaller, faster Warriors’ (seems kind of counter-intuitive)? Even with the questions involved, the DFSR system likes him to maintain a solid floor and sees a great deal of upside. An above-average investment for well-above-average performance, I see this as a reasonable play for both cash and tournament games, both sites.

Our system would have you take a look at one D. Nowitzki for yet another DK-only tourney flyer.

 

CENTER

Alex Len - FD 6600 DK 6600
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 33.27 DK Proj. Pts - 33.85

Another Suns game, another Len recommendation. His price has risen steadily, but it has yet to catch up to his production. On DK, his salary has gone up nearly 20% in two games. Yet, even at current prices, he has shown a hard 4x floor and the potential to spike up to 8x. Earl Watson is keeping his word and running Len big minutes every game (34+ since making the commitment). The matchup is good (the Knicks are #25 DvP on centers), and the Pace should be o.k. (the Knicks plod, the Suns run). The minutes are the key, and there is absolutely no reason not to trust them here. He should fit into any salary structure, and makes for both a cash or tourney play.

Dwight Howard - FD 7900 DK 8000
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 38.49 DK Proj. Pts - 39.16

Dwight represents another Rocket going up against the bottom-3rd Sixers defense. As noted above, there should be plenty of action in the game. His DFSR projection is based on a conservative 34 minutes. He has played at least that many or more in 6 of his last 7 games. No one else on the Rockets can really replace him when he comes off the floor. Given that the only real question will be opportunity against the banged up Sixers front line, I’d say this is a pretty clear-cut value play. If you want to differentiate and stay away from Len (sure to retain high ownership rates), Howard is a safe buy with plenty of upside.

The obligatory DK pivot play at Center is Omer Asik as a pure punt.

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