Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) goes to the basket against Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson (6) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2015, in Washington. The Lakers won 108-104. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Well yesterday was a bit nuts huh? Memphis sits three of their best players only to go out and field a team of phenomenal punt plays en route to a win over the Cavs. Just crazy. Tonight should be tame comparatively. There are some good defensive teams, and the Lakers going tonight with a few interesting plays. None of the real expensive dudes are running which makes lineup creation just a smidge easier. Let's get to it.
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Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 44.71 DK Proj. Pts - 45.94
Like I said at the outset, tonight is an odd night in the DFS NBA landscape. No player on FanDuel or DraftKings is over 10K. That means you are going to roster at least a few of the top salary guys simply because you can and will need the raw points. I suppose the question to begin will be Wall or Lillard? Because you see his picture about an inch and a half up to the left, you know we like Wall. Both Portland and Washington have been below average against point guards, but our system thinks Lillard is a tad overpriced and you are getting a better bargain from both a floor and ceiling perspective on Wall.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 22.08 DK Proj. Pts - 23.15
Know this: the Nets are horrible. But horrible teams get to play games too and they even have to run out guys like Larkin for extended run. He's played more than thirty minutes in the last two games while averaging a 15/6/3. It's tough to completely count on the guy as the Nets do play the loser PG carousel between Larkin and Sloan. But Shane's played well enough in the short term to warrant a moderate minutes expectation boost. If you think he sees the run then he's close to a must play at his points/$ projections.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 21 DK Proj. Pts - 22.49
Revenge game! I don't believe in such nonsense of course but some folks jump on that narrative bandwagon. Our system has no idea Mack used to roll deep on the Hawk bench, but it does like Mack's expectation if he's still the Jazz point guard. As said on the Zach Lowe podcast the other day, it's more a testament to how bad the Jazz ballhandling situation is than it is a compliment for Mack that he's the starter. But he's still coming cheap and running with the varsity.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.62 DK Proj. Pts - 29.19
Yes, I know the Lakers took down the big, bad Warriors the other night. They still stink on defense. LA's ranked dead last in defensive efficiency this season and it isn't particularly close. I'm all over some of the Magic guys tonight, Payton being one of them.
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.69 DK Proj. Pts - 28.88
This is a bad matchup for Lavine from a game perspective with the Spurs opening as -10.5 favorites. A blowout could lead to Lavine seeing greatly reduced minutes. And oh those minutes. Sam Mitchell has found something he loves in Lavine and that means the terrible coach is running dude out there for seemingly infinity run. Shooting guard has its issues today leading me to most likely taking the chance on Lavine no matter what. I'm just worried he gets those minutes buzzed.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 30.68 DK Proj. Pts - 32.16
The Magic are a little bit all over the place right now with their injury situations and who they want to run between the two and three. Some of that confusion is thanks to recent uncertainty about Oladipo and Fournier. But things may be getting back to normal now that Dipo is back and playing a full compliment of minutes. If you think he's going in the mid 30's then he's basically a lock for me on FanDuel. As it stands, even coming on the back-to-back and questions about minutes I think I'd still take the chance on him because of how porous the Lakers are on D.
Consider Arron Afflalo
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 42.68 DK Proj. Pts - 44.78
Melo falls into that John Wall category for me in that he's one of the better points/$ plays among the big boys on this slate. Dude's been chucking from the rafters over his last ten games or so. Only one of them (his most recent) has seen him take less than 20 shots in an affair. The results have been a steady performance over this stretch with a higher floor and limited ceiling. Carmelo doesn't shoot enough threes to really blow it out of the box in scoring even when he's putting up shot after shot. But the volume against a below average Denver defense should be there.
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.78 DK Proj. Pts - 25.08
Since the minutes crept back up to close to thirty a game, Baze has been paying his FanDuel price easily. Part of that is he's been shooting more threes with his time on the court. Baze isn't lights out from downtown, but he gets the job done while also chipping enough on the boards to make a solid cash game play. The Jazz are a tough defensive team but Bazemore is here because the continued opportunity is outpacing his price at the moment.
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 18.92 DK Proj. Pts - 19.61
The last time Bradley Beal missed a game Otto Porter went out and played 36 minutes with a 15/8/4/2 line. Is that a small sample size from more than a month ago? Hell yeah it is. But I could see it happen again tonight. Porter's seen his price steadily drop since Beal's return as the minutes really haven't been there with the latter coming off the bench. That won't be the case here. And while yes Washington is a slightly different team, Porter is still running with the starters and could stick on the court to provide more scoring.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 36.46 DK Proj. Pts - 37.24
What we know is that Pop won't be at the game tonight because he's dealing with a personal issue at home. Does that decrease the chance of getting Pop'd on this slate? Maybe, unless he's brainwashed the assistant coaching staff as well. The Spurs are on a back-to-back tonight and heavy favorites against the T-Wolves. But if you think LMA goes full (he got a rest night on Saturday) then he's a top play at power forward. Minnesota is about average against opposing fours this season and it wouldn't totally shock me to see Kawhi get some rest in this one. That's total conjecture of course, these are the Spurs we're talking about. Aldridge isn't the most exciting player in the NBA to watch, but he's consistent when the minutes are there. Putting up double-doubles like he's getting paid for them (which he is) and his projection has him in line for another one tonight.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 34.51 DK Proj. Pts - 35.8
The Nets sat him at the last second on Saturday (along with Brook Lopez) and leading to one of the better NBA DFS pre-lineup lock scrambles in some time (the Spurs sitting a bunch of guys aided and abetted as well). Young and Lopez only sat for rest and both should be back at full go tonight. It's a tougher matchup against the Raptors in that they're above average against power forwards, but this slate is tough almost all around from a defensive perspective. The only thing that could jeopardize his minutes is how well Thomas Robinson and Willie Reed played the other night. If you think they cut into his run then he's getting bumped down out of consideration.
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 27.78 DK Proj. Pts - 28.74
Tournament play though our system may start insisting you play him in cash games as well. The Wiz will be without Bradley Beal and his 12-16 shot attempts per game. While Markieff isn't the positional replacement for Beal, he could certainly see more looks and there are minutes to get passed down the line. The Wiz are already forced to play small some of the time and Portland isn't a bad matchup to go a little undersized if need be. If the minutes creep into the low 30's then I'll certainly take the risk on Markieff with the expectation that he's getting up double digit shots at least.
Strongly consider Paul Millsap
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 31.95 DK Proj. Pts - 32.53
Woof is center every gross tonight. Really no options you'd feel entirely comfortable throwing out there. And I don't think Gobert is necessarily a lock for value. But he's seen an uptick in minutes lately, playing 34-37 almost like clockwork. He's not a big part of the offense, averaging only about six shots per game though he's incredibly efficient on the few dunks or post shots he gets. Gobert derives his value through rebounding and blocked shots. The latter are tough to count on game to game which can lead to swings in his production. I'm taking a slight discount on him at a weak position.
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 41.18 DK Proj. Pts - 41.89
KAT went beast mode last night against the Hornets to the tune of a 28/14. The Minnesota announcer went so far as to say during the broadcast that Towns would end up being the greatest T-Wolve player of all-time over Kevin Garnett. He's sure as hell off to a good start. Only the blowout has me worried here, but if Minnesota can stay in the game it's likely because Towns played well and ran a ton.
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View Comments
anyone feel like shutting it down for NBA and just prepping for MLB??? Seriously considering it now that 350 can't even win a person a double up anymore. I gotta say, I think this has honestly become the riskiest sport! Even more so than MLB because at least in that sport people will actually have different lineups!!! You can make all the right plays in NBA on any given night and still lose because every chalk play is 70 percent owned and one slipup at a spot is now instant death! Might as well just play all tournaments now that stringing together consecutive winning cash game nights is a huge task. Very disappointed with the lack of regulation by Fanduel regarding multi entri and Draftkings can we get some quintuple ups with more than 28 people already???
^^^Ditto...I've been thinking that the last few weeks. some nights, I score 325 in 50/50s and get nothing. what's the point, might as well throw my mo away in gpps, at least if I hit, i hit big.
It's been crazy, and I am glad it's not just me. Kinda glad I don't do 50/50s from the way folks describe them here, but the FD 20 team leagues are getting much more competitive than even two weeks ago. Sick of all the rest days leading to super obvious punt plays.
I agree. I'm also getting tired of taking time to pick my optimal lineup and then a ton of late scratches has me scrambling
Just had a big meeting about MLB today! We're getting pumped. The optimizer should be amazing.
I don't think NBA is the riskiest sport, per se, but you're right that the low hanging fruit of the early season is kinda gone at this point. Still sticking with it because the edge is there, but definitely excited to go after the new MLB money in April.
I went 325-377 in 5 different lineups and only won $15 total....this is getting ridiculous.
I feel the same way considering giving up, one week 340 will win then next day I get 340 then 380 wins. Seems to be a pattern have invested as much as I have won and have been scoring high. Breaking even isn't the goal while i'm usually missing big money by 25 and less points.
I was starting to think the same thing. It's extremely frustrating when you put together a great lineup, score 320+ pts, and still don't even come close in a 50/50.
I agree .. It takes about the same amount of points to cash in a 50/50 as it does to cash in a gpp anymore. Even the cash games takes more points to cash than a gpp sometimes. So why not just load up on gpps because at least it has the opportunity to cash big but still double up anyway. Last night I got gun smoked in cash but tripled up in gpps with same lineups.
I am seeing results that suggest a well diversified GPP portfolio might be safer than playing 1 cash game lineup everywhere. It just takes more time. Tough.
Has anyone ever seen a lineup cash in a GPP but miss the cash line in a 50/50? Had that happen last night. Very strange.
It's because most people playing 5050 s and heads up type games are people like us that do our research spend a decent amount of time figuring out who the best players are and why so you're going to get a lot more overlap and 5050 especially recently with the lot of obvious plays like green last night and Alex Len recently. I think it's more also that most of us that do the 5050 s are checking lineup changes right up to the last minute while the big tourneys have a lot of newbies and people who may set a line up the night before or earlier in the day and just not check it. I've also noticed that it's becoming harder to cash in 5050 ever since the lineup optimizer came out it makes it easier 4 people newer to DFS to just plug in certain place but they would never know about because they don't do their research. As a lot of variables and reasons why this is happening right now but I've been feeling the same way recently I'm playing more tournaments because when you do get the higher scores at least you're making more than double you making triple 5 times 10 times 100 times what you put in so until things start to level out I will definitely be putting less money into cash games.
Its just too predictive of a sport. Last season, those of us who were somewhat good cleaned up and now its like everyone can just go to DFSR or Rotogrinders and then get lucky using picks along with one random guy who goes off and then gives them the edge they dont even deserve IMO.
I also believe the overall talent level in the NBA is at an all time high and is causing these scores to be anlot higher. (yes, this is the most stacked I have ever seen a single season of NBA weather I was playing DFS or just watching as a fan).
MLB is frustrating too l, but I realize that this is the now the next best thing to make money at other than football because ownership will almost always be all over the place and there arent as many obvious plays.
Lineup construction matters a lot more in MLB, and to some degree, there's a secret sauce there that's not as intuitive for casual fans. We're working on building that into our lineup optimizer UI, but it's tricky. We'll probably put out a few strategy articles on the subject when we come up for air on this development project.
I agree, been playing since 2011 bout to shut it down. Multi entrys are killing the games. Like a snake eating it's tail fd and dk are slowly but surely killing themselves imo.
And yes Taylor me as well haha and then I put up an even higher score in the 25 dollar slam and lost
I'm equally frustrated, it was easily my highest cash game result without a win. I do think it was a rather rare freak occurence though... I knew when I looked at the choices before doing my lineup that it would be very difficult to choose the right combination with so many good choices, especially on DK with less positions and salary available to spend. I almost took the night off last night because of that - but I am too addicted I guess. Does 'Draftsaholics Anonymous' exist?