Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
There’s a full slate tonight, and according to our friends offshore, there’s not too much blowout risk (even the Lakers are single-digit dogs on the road!). The games do range from track meet to snail’s pace, but the latter can still provide viable DFS options, if caution is applied. I don’t find the first national broadcast terribly compelling (will the Spurs win by 7 or 17?), but I’m looking forward to staying up a little later for OKC vs. the Clips. Should be fun. Let’s take a look for some compelling matchups.
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Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 52.76 DK Proj. Pts - 54.57
Russ is not the highest point-per-dollar (PP$) play tonight, but as of this writing (depends on if The Brow plays – more on that later) he’s up there, and easily the best elite option. Regardless, y’all know I have a man-crush on Westbrook, and when the DFSR system says I can play him, I’m a happy camper. He has been playing so poorly, he recently bottomed out at 50.75 on DK on a consistent $11k+ price. Tonight’s statistical love is explained in simplest terms by the 221.0 O/U. This means the floor is high. There’s also virtually no blowout risk, and with both teams playing at a good Pace, the upside is still there (not too common with $10k+ options). As I said, I’m looking forward to the game, and, like many of us, will have the added pleasure of a vested interest (even if just for a night).
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.15 DK Proj. Pts - 29.39
If Russ is the best elite option, Mudiay is the best PP$ on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and it’s truly not even close. We’re looking at a 4x floor and a projected average of 5.5x. That’s value folks. My grandmother used to say everything good in life is either illegal, immoral, or fattening. Here’s the exception… a single word of caution: Lakers. Even with a single-digit spread, I see LAL and run screaming for a hedge position. I’ll still be playing him, cash and tourney. I advise you do the same.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 18.01 DK Proj. Pts - 19.24
If you want to punt at PG, Mack’s a great option on FD, where his price remains suppressed. He disappointed a couple of games ago (I know – I had him and he was the difference between cashing and not), but has been pretty consistent since being traded during the ASB. I’m fine running him out there (on FD) this time, even against the Raptors tough backcourt. At $3700, the likelihood that he doesn’t generate acceptable value is quite low. Note that this is a prime example of exploiting price opportunities between host sites. At $4700 on DK, I won’t touch him.
Lots of games, too many options, gotta’ mention Ricky Rubio. The system likes him almost as much as Mudiay, but I had to cover Russ and Mack because of their respective Stud/Dud status.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 30.84 DK Proj. Pts - 32.12
Even off the bench, run is run. Barton is the best PP$ option at his position on DK and almost so on FD. There’s nothing fancy here – minutes >> opportunity >> fantasy points. Oh, and there’s the fact that he’s playing against the Lakers (actually above-average DvP on SGs, but still). When they’re running out JaKarr Sampson just to keep you on the bench and lead the 2nd squad, that’s pretty much all you need to know (notwithstanding what that says about the coaching). Yeah, Galo’s down, and that hurts, but JaKarr Sampson? Really??
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 34.62 DK Proj. Pts - 36.05
With Evan Fournier at best questionable, Victor is in line for some high usage. He’s not particularly cheap, but even when his usual running mate is out there, ‘Dipo’s been seriously delivering since the ASB. His outliers are over 4x. The game should be close and played at an average Pace, so the minutes feel extremely safe, regardless of Fournier’s status. Chicago defends the 2 very well, but this guy is the hybrid’s hybrid, and the Bulls can’t stop SFs or PGs. I like this play a great deal, especially in cash games. Take the chalk and look for savings elsewhere.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 25.54 DK Proj. Pts - 26.72
The Zach Attack is back. If 5x works for you, then this is your guy. He’s been incredibly consistent of late, whether coming off the bench or not, because he usually plays starters’ minutes. The Wiz play fast and are in the bottom 3rd of the league DvP-wise against the SG position. He contributes in enough categories to be a safe play (nearly a 6x despite a brick mason’s 3/13 effort from the field last time out), and I always like taking a home ‘dog (even if it is a team sport). The price point is nice too (he hardly moved during the month of February on DK, where salary is usually hypersensitive).
On a night with a ton of options and limited opportunities for write-ups, simply by virtue of the size of the slate, I feel compelled to mention The Beard tonight on DK, where the DFSR system loves him.
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.08 DK Proj. Pts - 29.42
Another night, another Matt Barnes recommendation. The Post-Lee/Post-Green Grizz are relying on him for minutes, and even without top-end run he still projects as easily the best SF on a PP$ basis on FD. He’s also getting love on DK, there’s just not the clear separation from the pack that there is on FD. I suspect the DFSR system likes the Kings’ light-speed Pace. His output has ranged a bit, from 3x to nearly 9x, so he’s volatile. This makes him a particularly good Tourney play.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 41.57 DK Proj. Pts - 44.28
The best PP$ on DK you ask? That’d be P.G., though he’s still a very strong sub-elite value on FD. He has a decent floor plus a lot of upside. The Bucks are bottom-3rd defending SFs. We think George’s minutes are very safe, and his Usage Rate has remained stable all year. From a cash game perspective, he represents another sub-$10k play, and a good place to park some dollars if your lineup allows. If the DFSR projections are right (and we think they are), there’s quite a bit of upside here too, making this not just a cash play but also a tourney option.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.4 DK Proj. Pts - 25.9
Covington is a nice play if you’re looking for someone below average cost (particularly on FD, where he’s only $4900). He’s projected for roughly the same PPG value despite a higher salary on DK, because of the differences in scoring systems. . The upside is there, but not so much the floor. Just look at his recent game logs and you’ll see why (a 2x followed by a near-8x). Being a 76er by definition brings some risk to the table just in terms of the occasional minutes buzz. Add in the fact that the Hornets are a little above-average in DvP, and this is not your safe pick, and I recommend him for tourney play only
Need to note that on DraftKings K.D. represents a fine option to spend any salary you may have accrued elsewhere. He’s rewarded there for the 3 and is slightly less expensive, making a substantial difference in PP$. There are better places to spend excess cash on FD. Exactly the same goes for Kawhi.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 32.21 DK Proj. Pts - 33.32
The newest member of the Wiz’s starting lineup is THE play of the day on both FD and DK. Again, it’s not even close. He’s _projected_ for a 6x. The T’Wolves terrible DvP on PFs surely has something to do with that, as does the 220 O/U. With a hard 4x floor and legitimate 7x upside, the bottom line is that the Other-Now-Exiled-Morris-Twin (I doubt he’s complaining going from the Suns to the Wiz) needs to be in your lineup. Cash or tourney.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 52.97 DK Proj. Pts - 53.79
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 24.56 DK Proj. Pts - 27.25
This is all about The Glass Brow. If he plays, he’s the elite ($10k+) option. He has a a 4x floor and infinite upside. If he gets a hangnail or some such, Ryan Anderson (whose numbers above reflect the AD-plays scenario) likely turns into a must-play (if the last game didn’t convince you, I’m certainly not going to). Houston plays extremely fast. They also have a great deal of trouble defending PFs and a nightly hodge-podge for a rotation that’s only gotten worse with Montiejunas back in the fold. Small ball? J-Smooth? Harden dominating the Ball? Good luck figuring that out (actually, that last one’s a pretty solid bet). Just play the Pels starting PF and move along.
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 29.88 DK Proj. Pts - 31.51
Another player at an intermediate price point, Sullinger’s not too sexy (I kind of think of Fletch when I look at him jump) but represents good/great value, depending on position and host site. The Blazers are decent against the 4 but terrible against the 5, where he plays most of his minutes. He’s shown a fairly hard 5x floor for a while now and spiked as high as 10k in February. While I don’t see that, a 6x or even 7x is not out of the realm of possibility (see two games ago). That’s supported by a likely high Pace (he is a Celtic) and O/U around 220. Solid PF option on FD. Note that on DK he’s (correctly) listed as a Center and is a viable alternative to the top plays in terms of value.
Again, we can’t write up everybody, but Z-Bo is a nice option on FD, and Darrell Arthur is one of the punt plays of the night everywhere.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 39.23 DK Proj. Pts - 39.92
On FD, Dwight is the Center value of the night. On DK, he’s even better (note the price difference – odd to see him lower on DK than FD), though he has some competition in terms of pure value. He’s not an overwhelming option compared to some at other positions. He also won’t completely bust your budget, and has a nice combo of high floor/high ceiling. He has also been playing really, really well lately and as of right this second there are no concerns about his health. The Pels don’t have a true 5 they can keep on the floor very long, as reflected by their bottom-five DvP. He’s a good play on both sites, for slightly different reasons.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 37.22 DK Proj. Pts - 37.96
DeAndre represents a nice, safe play on both FD and DK. He has a slightly higher floor than Howard, but also a lower ceiling. If you like having a stake in Lob City, this is where you buy, even though OKC has an outstanding DvP against Centers. He simply can’t be stopped on the glass, even with the best Mustachios in the business contesting things hotly (Davis always gives the effort). Jordan’s a viable alternative to spend some cash at the position if you just can’t get behind Dwight. Don’t forget Sullinger above as an alternative as well.
On DK you also have to give strong consideration to Andre Drummond (straight-up value play) and Mason Plumlee (very close to a punt play there with his sub-$5k salary) They’re just average alternatives on FD. KAT also deserves mention on DK if you don’t mind a little volatility (read: tourney consideration).
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View Comments
Guys love the advice lately, but you are giving way too much respect to Oladipo and Shelvin Mack. You recommended Oladipo yesterday and he absolutely sucked. Shelvin Mack is too risky even as a value pick. He needs to be 86'd. Robert Covington is a risk as well, but he's more of a safe bet than Shelvin Mack.
What I've learned in the past few weeks is to not stack up lineups with more than 1 high priced superstar. What works lately are high value picks well rounded spot 1 to 9. Stacking lineups with a bunch of high priced players is a recipe for disaster if just 1 of those stars has an off game.
Tonight, players should stack up their lineups with high value picks and this looks like yet another night where you'll have to score at least 300 points to cash out...just saying...
I see what you're saying, Corey, but to win a tournament, you have to have EVERYTHING go your way no matter how you build a lineup. (At least I imagine so, not that I've done it.) And that could be a balanced lineup, or it could be Russ and CP3 going crazy against each other tonight (as one example). The best way to mitigate your own risk is by playing multiple types of lineups. There's value in both types--a balanced lineup where each player has the potential for 40+, or one where some guys can reasonably get 60+ and others 25-30+ as punts.
I agree on Dipo tonight though. Last night's stinker is keeping me away from him, rational or not.
Heck with Anderson, for $200 more on FD you can get Barton who is rated much much higher
Only thing that scares me for mack is the line is very low....
Corey. Tend to agree here on Oladipo. Sometimes in an effort to get out picks we are forced to make assumptions while a current game is playing out. Oladipo had his minutes lopped off though a big part of that was foul trouble early. I did bump Dipo's minutes down some this morning because I'm worried about the Skiles effect on his run.
I disagree on Mack though. He's the definition of a value play considering his price. He's a min guy who needs only about 25 minutes to hit expected value. I have no issues playing him if he's still a starter.
You are So right but sometimes the high value players don't pan out OLADIPO hurt me he's someone I don't play mack at all Covington he's a so so player
Just made a lineup based in these predictions. Looks pretty solid but every night it's a crap shoot.
Do you guys think Ryan Anderson is back to old form or his ability to rack up the points just based on matchup?
His ability to rack up points at these salaries is directly tied to whether Davis plays or not. Davis out = Anderson must play.
I played recommendations from yesterday with guys that should have scored me at least 375. But the players still have to preform. This is like the lotto but with a bit of stradegy in hopes your guys will play like they should. This site had given some real good plcks and some that just didn't come through. Good luck guys.
Shawn thanks for the nice words. Last night I played three different 50/50 lineups on FD and cashed all three (one even had Teague) and the optimal lineup on DK (with adjustment made for Curry news) which cashed everything.
We are working with weighted means which implies lineups more geared to cash games.
My first lineup has Russ, CP3, and PG...and I am very comfortable with the players around them.
Dipo's price has finally caught up to his production...he needs a dream matchup for me to play him again. To his credit though Orlandos players were pulled early bc they were just destroying. Speaking of, Dipo has a good matchup tonight but Mccollum has a higher usage rate and has more uside so id rather roll with him for $100 more on FD
Good info on CJ, but the Boston D is really good and his variance is enough to scare me. Frankly staying away from both guys and going cheaper (>$6200) for the majority of my SG picks tonight, although I will take a couple of fliers on the Beard.
Thanks for reading. If I knew Oladipo and McCollum were both going to play 36 minutes I'd take DIpo just about every time I think. The defensive stats really swing the tide for Dipo though his floor is lower because of the minutes issues.
Tonight is a good night to not spend up on SG...except for Harden, he should meet value. I still think theres better guys that high of a price and that have a better line for their team though.... for $6300 on FD for SG you must be talkin bout Ellis....guy has been on a tear!! I still like Barton more bc Paul George is probably going to be the star tonight for IND.
Takin this one to da bank! Thanks for all the help guys. Cashed in nicely last night bc of your Korver recommendation :)
PG Isaiah Thomas BOS $7,800
PG Emmanuel Mudiay DEN $5,200
SG Will Barton DEN $6,000
SG JJ Redick LAC $4,900
SF Jeff Green LAC $5,300
SF Kevin Durant OKC $10,600
PF Aaron Gordon ORL $6,500
PF Markieff Morris WAS $5,400
C Nikola Vucevic ORL $8,100
is anyone else not seeing Markieff in the lineup tool?
Just posted this at the same time as you
Hey guy, Markieff Morris is not listed anywhere within the optimizer..
Guys*
If bryant plays i think russell is a no go...kobe is trying to end his carreer with as many shots as he can take every game so that leaves everyone else DOA when he plays. As far as Boogie, staying away bc of memphis pace of play......sloooooooowwwwwww...fantasy point killer!!! Im spending up elsewhere
If you cant see him pencil him in bc they projected him very very high...crazy high line and the defense is among the worst against PF. PLUS....hes new to the team so hes going balls to the wall to impress and earn his paycheck. hes locked in for me in every single lineup...im feeling a 40 FP night from him :)
Two plays I have questions about. 1. Russel v mudiay. Deangelo has been hot and is basically the same price as mudiay. He's also a much better shooter imo. Two boogie. That Memphis front court is strung together with a few scrubs and z-bo. Get z-bo in foul trouble and he's just scoring when he feels like it.
Holiday is a great play no matter if he does or not. Actually i might switch thomas out for him now that you brought that up...its very very close for me...they are nearly identical..thomas usage is a smidge higher but their opponents pace is slower...their line is very high though..yet holiday usage is just a little lower but their opponents pace is higher...their line is just a little lower but still great....decisions decisions
Why no love for Barnes? Hes highly rated for a reason...everything should line up for him to do work tonight and put up a 30 to 35 fp night...crazy high line, their opponent play at a ridiculously fast pace and also his opponents are terrible at defending SF pos and hes priced just right to snug big time ballers into your lineup. Sign me up!
Lavine is a good play but WAS is decent at defending that pos. Barton threw up a dud last game so not that many will play him today...and hes playing the Lakers...hence why Im all over him...everyone knows Lavine is playing well...but im thinking he will meet value and not skyrocket through his price point like others at his same value can...since deng is out i think the team is going to rely heavily on towns, and once they shut him down they will fall apart and rely heavily on Lavine. But since they are above average at defending SG i think he will struggle
Vlad I think you're right about shabazz...hes almost a must play if hes starting...since deng is out hes going to get run....AND heres the best part...this is a position that WAS cant defend well at all to go along with a great line..Also his usage will get a big bump...going to have to LOCK him in if hes starting.
Portis? mmmm i dunno...even though hes getting all the run his opp are average at defending PF. pos. Plus i think Gasol is the man of the night for CHI..his usage rate goes up to 24 to almost 28 with gibson off the floor and opp is terrible at defending C....not to mention Rose will probably play.. his usage goes from 26 to 31!!!!! Those two guys are the team...portis might get extra rebounds from the shots rose will be hurling out there..thats the only way i see him doing well IMO
Yikes, was wrong wrong wrong about Lavine...he will do well tonight..they are terrible at defending SG pos but i think wiggins will be the beneficiary tonight...
usage without deng
wiggins 26 up to 27
lavine 24 down to 22
Lavine still will meet value and a great play
I like Barnes!
yea MEM and SA I stay clear of
Kobe is back tonight - this could kill D'Angelo's value.
If Brow sits doesn't it make Holiday a must start too?
We also know about Gallo and faried sitting I could use Jokic with Howard. We also know taj is injured so Portis will have all the run
Honestly I don't trust Barnes we know that dieng is missing the game I love Muhammad as he's likely starting. I would take Lavine over Barton in any matchup. What do you guys think?
Last night cashed very well in the multipliers it came down to Draymonds last rebound as millsap and klay did very well in the fourth