Daily Fantasy DraftKings MMA Picks for UFC 196 – 3/5/16

The King & Queen of MMA are both in action at UFC 196 as Conor McGregor & Holly Holm headline what should be an entertaining PPV card from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Holm’s fight is tactically more interesting as her first title defense presents a stiff test in Miesha Tate. Meanwhile, the hype train continues to roll for the Irishmen as the biggest favorite on the card takes on short-notice replacement Nate Diaz. Enough of the intro, let’s pick some winners and throw in those snappy one-liners I’m sure you all love.

One more thing: I'll be checking the comments section all week, or get me on Twitter, to talk about all things UFC 196 heading into lineup lock.

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Heavy Favorites ($10,500+)

Conor McGregor ($11,000)

This would have been a different story if McGregor’s scheduled opponent, Rafael Dos Anjos was able to defend his lightweight title in a champion vs. champion main event. But Dos Anjos broke his foot in training and had to pull out of the fight.

*Side Note: seriously, these guys need to take it down a notch in training or find a way to be safer. Shuffled cards and injuries are a continuing epidemic in MMA that presents a serious threat to the sport.*

Rant over, back to business. McGregor now gets short notice replacement Nate Diaz at welterweight – YES, WELTERWEIGHT. Diaz was nowhere near fight shape when he accepted the enormous payday you get when fighting McGregor. I expect the “Notorious” one to punch the donuts out of him Saturday night.

McGregor is one of the best in the biz and now he’ll be fighting angry against an out-of-shape, borderline opponent. 15 fight win streak, 5 straight finishes, roster McGregor everywhere because if you don’t you will probably be starting out in a big hole.

Vitor Miranda ($10,700)

Miranda was one of my favorite fighters to watch on TUF Brazil 3 and it’s great to see him on a roll in the UFC after back-to-back stoppage victories against Jake Collier and Clint Hester. “Lex Luthor” always has Kryptonite handy when he enters the Octagon – that was awful, but I went there. It’s now or never for the 36-year old veteran who has racked up 10 KOs or submissions in 11 career wins.

Across from him is Marcelo Guimaraes, who I’m not sold on as a UFC caliber athlete. Guimaraes is 2-1 in the octagon but both of his victories came via split decision while the Brazilian was knocked outby Hyun Gyu Lim. “Magrao” also has been on a 20-month hiatus from competition and could be a victim of ring rust. Miranda is a solid play among the favorites with upside to get a finish. I also don’t suspect he’ll be too heavily owned – win, win, win.

Mid-Tier Targets ($9,500-$10,400)

Chas Skelly ($10,100)

Skelly rides a four-fight win streak into UFC 196 and has hit his stride in the UFC with back-to-back stoppages. “The Scrapper” (15-1, 4-1 UFC) is quickly making a name for himself in the Featherweight division. He looks to break into the rankings on Saturday as a favorite against #11 Darren Elkins. Elkins has alternated wins and losses in his last six and even at his best never boasted a high finish rate.

This one projects as a grappling/wrestling contest and Skelly appears to be more polished in both areas, giving him the advantage overall. With an average salary, Skelly makes for a solid cash game play as he should either put Elkins away or go to the scorecards.

Jason Saggo ($10,400)

I’m digging into the Undercard on this one, but those fights count just as much as the Main Event. It’s amazing to me how many people forget that. Saggo’s first-round stoppage scores just as many points as McGregor’s. And if Saggo wins his fight, it will likely come with some bonus points. All 10 of Saggo’s victories are by stoppage while his opponent, Justin Salas, has been put away early in three of his last five fights. Saggo gives you a great chance to start your fantasy night off on a high note – don’t sleep on the Undercard!

Upset Alert (Under $9,500)

Tom Lawlor ($8,800)

We’re going all out on the Underdog picks this week. Lawlor returned from a two-year layoff with a second round knockout of Gian Villante in July. “Filthy” can be just that as 80% of his wins are by stoppage and I think he’s undervalued at $8,800. Part of the reason is his opponent, Corey Anderson, is an above average fighter, the kind Lawlor has struggled with. But Anderson lost his bout with Villante in 2015 and frankly has not been overly impressive since then. Lawlor’s work is cut out for him but I don’t think he’s totally overmatched. More importantly, from a fantasy perspective, with an $8,800 he gives you room to roster McGregor and then some.

Siyar Bahadurzada ($8,500)

Yep, sign me up for the second biggest underdog on the card as a massive contrarian/GPP play. Don’t get me wrong, I won’t be stunned if Brandon Thatch hammers Bahadurzada but “The Great” just may make a fight of it. Bahadurzada is returning from a two-year absence after starting his UFC career at 1-2. He disposed of Paulo Thiago in 42 seconds before going the distance in decision losses to Dong Hyun Kim and John Howard (both of whom are no slouches).

What’s more interesting is Thatch is a HUGE favorite after back-to-back losses in which he was choked out both times. The fight game is mental and Thatch is in a slump that gives me pause. Both of these guys rack up finishes so don’t expect the judges to get involved. If Bahadurzada pulls the upset, your GPP lineup should benefit from bonus points while the field takes a huge hit from the heavily owned Thatch. Alright good, done, I’m never typing Bahadurzada again. Seriously.

Editor's Note: Welcome MMA contributor Shaun Ihasz. Give him a follow on Twitter @ShaunEyeHas