Bubba Watson tees off on the ninth hole during the first round of the Phoenix Open golf tournament, Thursday, Feb. 4, 2016, in Scottsdale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
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Trump National Doral (Blue Monster) - Miami, FL
Par 72 - 7,528 Yards
The Honda Classic wrapped up on Sunday with Adam Scott picking up his first victory in close to two years and first with the new short putter. Check out the recap below.
It was another extremely tough week as the wind howled pretty much the whole time. Only 13 players finished the tournament under Par. Rickie Fowler had a terrific start to the tournament going Bogey Free both days but fell apart somewhat on the weekend shooting 74/71 to finish -3 in a tie for sixth. This weekend will not get any easier on the 67 players heading to Trump National Doral in Miami. Let's dig in.
This week the PGA Tour will welcome the first WGC event of the season in North America. The Cadillac Championship is back at Trump National Doral(Blue Monster). The course has been open for play since 1962 and joined the WGC cycle back in 2007. Donald Trump purchased the property in 2012 and set forth a $200 million renovation. The course was considered a tough test before the reno with the Florida winds giving the course a nice defense. Trump, however, didn't feel the defense was up to snuff so he made it harder. A lot harder! He added strategic bunkers in the fairway, rough and littered around the greens. He added water hazards. He made the greens more undulating and tougher to putt on, and lengthened the Bermuda rough. And if that didn't take the stroke average down the length he added surely will. The beast of a course is now over 7500 yards in length. For a terrific breakdown of every hole with awesome flyovers click HERE.
This week's #1 stat that I will be looking at will be Driving Distance. Since the renovation bombers have ruled the course. Last year the Top 4 were all inside the Top 5 in Driving Distance at the end of the year rankings. Not to say that shorter hitters can't succeed here because they can. They just need to be excellent Tee to Green and have good long range Proximity as they will be further back on approach shots. I will also be looking at Proximity from 175-200 and from 200+ Yards. Par 4 and especially Par Scoring will be a big factor this week as well. I broke down the Top 10 from last year's tournament and looked at their performances on Par 3/4/5 holes. Below is a look at what I found.
As you can see Par 5 Scoring was extremely important to where the players finished on the leaderboard. If you can manage to survive and hover one or two strokes around Par on the Par 3's and 4's and make your birdies on the Par 5's you will be near the top of leaderboard come Sunday.
I will again this week be interacting through the comments section below and ready to answer any questions about Fantasy Golf or anything you wanna talk about. Join the conversation. And as always, I am available on Twitter @Jager_bombs9.
Below are the main stats I am weighting on the cheatsheet this week. Up to 20 PGA Tour stats are used each week. The cheatsheet also provides last 5 years of tournament history and last 5 tournaments of current form. I have also added a tab showing the course layout and yardages as well as a breakdown of the Top 10 and key stats from last years WGC Cadillac Championship.
Bubba Watson
Vegas Odds - 12/1
Draftkings - $11,400
Fantasy Feud - $172,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,900
It's a pretty tight group at the top this week with five guys within $900 of each other. Fitting two of them in a lineup together with a stars and scrubs strategy is a great way to go in GPP's this week. Bubba will be my highest owned golfer this week and it isn't even close. Besides putting he checks every box. He is a bomber and is very creative in his shot types and loves the long courses. Before the course was renovated he finished 2nd in 2012 and 18th in 2013. Since the course was lengthened he has done everything but win finishing 2nd and 3rd in consecutive years. He is rank Top 10 T2G, Top 40 on Par 3's and 4's, and Top 20 on Par 5's. He is coming off a win and will look to carry that momentum over as he gets ready for another Masters.
Dustin Johnson
Vegas Odds - 11/1
Draftkings - $11,200
Fantasy Feud - $158,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,900
My second favorite play this week is another bomber with a terrific course history at the Blue Monster. He is the defending champion who lead the field in Driving Distance and GIR last year and ranked 2nd T2G to Bubba. He has struggled a bit with his long iron accuracy(Ranked 195 & 83 from key distances) but it will only get better as he ranked 75th and 13th in 2015. After a tough 41st finish at Pebble Beach he rebounded with a 4th at the Northern Trust Open. Look for DJ to be one of the top scoring golfers in fantasy this week.
Henrik Stenson
Vegas Odds - 22/1
Draftkings - $10,300
Fantasy Feud - $123,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,800
Making his first start on the PGA Tour since the last WGC event(HSBC Champions) where he finished T11. He has been busy on the European Tour since November and has been red hot. Besides a T59 at the DP World Challenge in Dubai, he has four Top 6 finishes at events with very good fields. He doesn't have enough registered rounds to qualify for stat ranks in 2016 so we will look at his 2015 ranks where he was elite in almost every field. He has played here in each of the last two years and finished 16th in 2014 and 4th last year. He is in good form and his game fits the course.
J.B. Holmes
Vegas Odds - 25/1
Draftkings - $9,400
Fantasy Feud - $123,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,200
Sticking with the bomber profile, Holmes makes a great play this week. He is 3rd in Driving Distance, 6th T2G, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, and 23rd in Bogey Avoidance. He finished T18 at the Blue Monster back in 2010 and taking a five year absence finished 2nd to DJ last year. He is coming into this years event in great form with back to back T11's which came after back to back T6 finishes. With the great plays around him in the $9K range he could possibly be one of the lowest owned. Terrific play in any format this week.
Patrick Reed
Vegas Odds - 33/1
Draftkings - $9,100
Fantasy Feud - $109,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,500
He royally screwed everyone last week. Or at least 30+% of us. I will be back on him again this week(maybe a sucker for punishment). His form was terrific over the winter before going into a bit of a slump missing two of his last three cuts. His game fits this course and event which he won two years ago. He finished 23rd last year and will be looking to get back to the top this week. If recency bias comes into play his ownership should be drastically lower than last week. In a no cut field I will be using him in all formats.
Bill Haas
Vegas Odds - 50/1
Draftkings - $7,900
Fantasy Feud - $74,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,450
My #1 value play for GPP's this week will be Haas who falls below the $8K range in salary. Since the course was redesigned he has been one of the top non bombers to have tremendous success here. He finished 6th back in 2014 and 7th last year. He is extremely accurate(11th in Driv Acc) and is very consistent on the Par 4's(ranked 11th). In a week where avoiding bogeys is as much or more important than making birdies, Haas' 4th rank in Bogey Avoidance is a huge advantage over most of the field. A great play in any format.
Also Consider - Danny Willet, Paul Casey
Scott Piercy
Vegas Odds - 300/1
Draftkings - $6,600
Fantasy Feud - $30,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,350
If you are one of those DFS PGA players who loves to stick a guy in after he stuck it to everyone who backed him the week before, Piercy is your man. This is a high risk, high reward GPP play this week. He was awful last week shooting 77/74 with 11 Bogeys and three double bogeys in two days. He will be under owned this week and a nice mid $6K play perfect for stars and scrubs. He is a ball striker(ranked 26th) who hits a lot of greens(ranked 51st in GIR) and scores on the Par 4's and 5's. He hasn't played here since the renovation but did finish T25 back in 2013.
Fabian Gomez
Vegas Odds - 300/1
Draftkings - $6,400
Fantasy Feud - $39,000
Fantasy Aces - N/A
This will be his first trip to Doral and makes a risky play best suited for stars and scrubs lineups. His game seems to fit the course statistically highlighted by a 41st rank in SG:T2G, 29th in GIR, 16th in Par 5 Scoring, and 15th in Bogey Avoidance. After his break through win at the Sony Open he has struggled missing three of his last four cuts but is due for another big tournament. At a mid $6K price he will be tough to avoid in a small field.
Also Consider - Daniel Berger(GPP)
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the WGC Cadillac Championship? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
WGC Cadillac Championship
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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