Oklahoma City Thunder's Kevin Durant, right, and Russell Westbrook celebrate their team's 100-99 win against the Los Angeles Clippers in an NBA basketball game, Monday, Dec. 21, 2015, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Leap day is here! Full disclosure, I am a big detractor of February 29th. Let's dive in as to why.
1) I was born on February 28th. When you're born on February 28th, a startling number of people think that's actually leap day. Another startling percentage will make a joke like, "If you were born 1 day later, you'd be like 9 years old right now!!!" No, jerk, I'd be the same age. My birthday would just be March 1st, since I wasn't born in a leap year.
2) It grates against my need for elegant solutions. As a mathy person, I spend a lot of time trying to figure out how things fit together, just so. Meanwhile, we have a calendar that has a number of months with 30 days, a number with 31, and one with 28. Except for sometimes, when it has 29. It just feels like someone gave up along the way to a better solution, not worrying that people like me would have to deal with a lifetime of bad jokes.
Where were we? Ah yes, basketball. Basketball being played today. I have thoughts on which players you should play in daily fantasy basketball. Here they are.
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Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 53.76 DK Proj. Pts - 55.68
To the surprise of absolutely no one, I'm sure. Westbrook is one of the most consistent big money fantasy players we've seen, and the Kings are a wreck on defense. They've allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, and they're operating at less than full capacity. If Rondo plays, he's both hobbled and disinterested on the defensive side of the ball this season. If he's out, Darren Collison specifically can't get a starting job in the NBA because of his defense. Westbrook is just a must play in 50/50s and double-ups. With monster upside as well.
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 31.43 DK Proj. Pts - 33.24
Good god is it tough to know what to make of Mike Conley and the Grizzlies right now. Since they traded everyone, they've played 3 very weird games. They blew out the Lakers twice, then managed to lose to arguably the league's worst team, ending Phoenix's 13 game losing streak. This has all led to Conley playing fewer minutes, instead of the Grizz having precious few real NBA players. And, in spite of this, he's still be mostly fine on basically no minutes. It's a strange day for point guards - there are a lot of guys with odd question marks around them - but I like Conley because you can get him at a relatively low start % against a Denver team that's allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 21.8 DK Proj. Pts - 23.1
Joe Johnson is gone, and those shots have to go somewhere. Sloan isn't really a fantastic NBA talent, but he's now on a team with even fewer options than it had a week ago. He's averaged 5x points per dollar in his last three games, and while this is far from a good match-up with the Clippers, he's definitely one of the higher upside guys on the slate if he manages to get his full run of minutes.
Two interesting upside plays: Kyrie Irving, because his minutes have been so erratic and it seems like we're seeing his floor right now. Also, Shelvin Mack. I know people are grumpy with him right now. I get it. But there's still opportunity and talent there - don't sleep on him yet.
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 30.93 DK Proj. Pts - 32.19
Gallinari went down in Denver's last game, and the Nugs decided to roll Barton for 38 regulation minutes. We've seen Barton log huge minutes in the past, and while Gallo is technically a small forward, Barton is actually a pretty comparable player in terms of running the offense and handling the ball. Memphis, meanwhile, is not the black-hole for shooting guards that they were when Tony Allen was playing more minutes. The Grizz are suddenly needing an offensive infusion, and Allen's been both injured and out of favor. This is something of a speculative play to be sure, but given relatively limited options I'm intrigued.
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 19.87 DK Proj. Pts - 21.62
We got a glimpse of what the Nets want to do in normal games in their last contest, and that meant leaving Ellington out there for 36 minutes against Utah. He's the obvious prime benefactor of Joe Johnson's departure, and has averaged 11 shots per game in his absence. Ellington doesn't do a whole lot besides score, but he really doesn't need to at $4k or less on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 22.69 DK Proj. Pts - 25.71
Redick seems to have emerged in the battle for primary shooting guard, and has recently averaged better than 5x+ points per dollar in his last 3 games. He's shot 15 times a game in those contests, up from his average of 12 per game on the season. The Nets, meanwhile, have been a crime against humanity against the shooting guard position this season. A lot of that is thanks to Joe Johnson, but Ellington is not exactly a defensive stopper either. He seems like a high floor play, even if there's significant blowout risk here.
Also considered: Monta Ellis, quite seriously.
James Harden is a fine play, by the way, especially if we get some good punts out there. It's just that I like some other big money plays better. Hence, his absence from this list of real considerations.
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 25.62 DK Proj. Pts - 27.69
Interestingly, Barnes has been thee backbone of the new look Grizz. He's played 14 more minutes than the next highest guy on the team in the last 3 games, and has totaled more than 80 fantasy points in that time. He's also got the benefit of a terrific match-up. The Nuggets had allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards before Gallinari's injury, and now they're going to piece together the position with a handful of out of position wing players. That might work for the Nuggets' offense, but it should cost them on defense and on the boards. This all benefits the already high floor Barnes. I love him today.
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 49.71 DK Proj. Pts - 52.83
Durant doesn't beg a lot of big write-ups, but I'll give you a few nuggets to roll with. He's got back to back absolutely incredible games, and this is easily his best match-up in weeks. The Kings and Rudy Gay have been atrocious against small forwards all season long, but Durant poses an even worse match-up for them than usual on account of his height and ability to launch 3s in transition. I suspect he's going to be a unanimous play in double-ups and 50/50s, and for good reason.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 29.75 DK Proj. Pts - 33.33
A classic case of price not having caught up with opportunity on a mid-range price guy. The Rockets are back up to their old tricks, trotting out Ariza for 40+ minutes per game, and he's paid back a lot of safety in the meantime. He's been a man possessed since the all star break, averaging 33+ fantasy points on the back of a very well rounded statistical profile. And he's done all that while going just 4 for 18 from the field in his last 2. The Bucks have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season, and Ariza seems awfully safe here.
An upside play: Robert Covington went off against the Wiz last week, and there's certainly a chance that happens again. The minutes are too erratic for me to trust him in cash games, though. I could also see Gordon Hayward putting up a huge game against the Celtics.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 27.44 DK Proj. Pts - 28.47
The safety and upside is so thick here you could cut it with a knife. Or stir it with a spoon. Or some other great analogy for something that's thick. It's late, okay? Setting aside a down game against the Pistons, Parker had been a lock for 6x points per dollar in the previous 5 games thanks to a huge increase in usage. He averaged 16 shots per game in those contests as opposed to the 10 he'd been averaging to that point. And yet, mysteriously, his price just hasn't climbed up on FanDuel whatsoever. He's a little more expensive on DraftKings, but it is a great play there as well. We're witnessing a future star come of age, and he's something like 10%-20% under-priced right now. Did I mention that the Rockets have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season? A must play everywhere.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 37.13 DK Proj. Pts - 37.62
While Favors isn't as sexy a play as Parker, he's still a lovely value. A little DFS lesson - the two things you basically need to pay attention to are minutes, and usage. If a guy plays more, he'll get more of all of the stats you know and love. That's one piece. The next piece is what he does with those minutes. That's an additional multiplier on his shots and points scored. Favors is playing more minutes, and shooting more in those minutes. Ya dig? Like Parker, he's on a string of terrific games, even if the overall points per dollar multipliers aren't quite the same on account of his higher price. The Celtics have allowed the 8th most fantasy points per minute to the position this season, and Favors should continue to pay his price.
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 29.59 DK Proj. Pts - 31.44
Ibaka has slid into a safe and unspectacular role, and then exploded for a huge game against the Warriors. Like most positions, the Kings are awful against power forwards as well. I'm thinking he's a good part of Kings/Thudner stacks, and a fine play at the price for cash games as well.
Also considered: There are frankly a ton of great options at the position today. I like Z-Bo for sneaky upside, and Jared Sullinger as well. I'm honestly not sure what I'm going to do when it comes time to set the lineups tomorrow.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 50.97 DK Proj. Pts - 51.58
It's going to tough to play Durant, Westbrook, and Cousins today. I get it. But man, are you really going to pass on a guy that put up 33 and 19 against the Thunder in their last match-up? Beyond that, he's generally been destroying everyone. How's that for statistical analysis. Play this man if you can. But if not...
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 38.71 DK Proj. Pts - 39.48
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 37.78 DK Proj. Pts - 38.44
Nearly the same price, and nearly the same projection. So, the break-down? Well, Jordan was on a tear before cooling off in two terrific match-ups with the Kings and Nuggets. Welp, he's got... another great match-up? The Nets are the 8th worst team against in the league. The Bucks have been better against centers this season, but Dwight is still a little under-priced given that he's finally playing high 30s minutes per game and paying 40+ fantasy points with some consistency. I like either, frankly, though Howard seems a little safer given Jordan's recent struggles.
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View Comments
lol that leap year stuff is funny. As soon as I saw this slate I knew it was gonna be russ and boogie time. KD has been a monster, but there are usually better values at sf consistently like ariza. I hope some punts open up but at first glance I'd probably fade KD despite those monster lines recently.
Count me among the people who have made this joke to James every year since I've known him.
also I agree in standing by Shelvin Mack. This dude is still building a chemistry with his new teammates. He made a career off of never turning the ball over and is averaging 4 TO's per game. As long as he isn't benched I fully expect the TO's to come back down and production go back up. As long as he runs with the starters he's a must in my book.
I agree here. There's very little risk at this price if he were to draw the start. Plus I love that folks will look at that recent game log and get turned off.
How does a Mil/Hou stack seem for 2/29? M.Carter-Williams, Harden, Ariza, J.Parker? Game has a 1.5 O/U last I checked, so all players should get full mins barring injury. LMK what y'all think.Thanks in advance!
I like this idea a lot for a tournament because it will naturally have some contrarian pieces (MCW for starters) and allocates money naturally away from the OKC game which I believe will be chalkier.
..cont..from above...
Maybe try to squeeze Monroe in somehow
Geeez! The spread is Hou -1.5, o/u 212.5. Also squeezed in Monrow and Plumlee
Or could go with Augustine instead of Plumlee. Thoughts?
Do you trust Barnes in cash games tonight with 2 duds in his last 5 games?
Yes. I trust him.
I will also have CP3 in my lineup...it's true there's a blowout risk but he's been terrific lately and BKN is 7th in most points allowed to opposing PG...
Agree on the upside, but that line really points to him not playing the 4th quarter.
I made a lineup using your tool and playing all the best ppd guys. Is this a good strategy? Seems like i got the best projected score i could get tn...262 on dk. Am i doing something wrong or is that a decent projection?
This strategy is correct. I think the actual optimal lineup is coming a bit closer to 265 projection as of right now. But yes, pts/$ is our best determinant of value.
Also thinking on switching kd for boogie???