Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/27/16

My God this is a fantastic day for basketball. Golden State - OKC is good enough just on its own. Then we have some terrible defenses going and a ton of stars. It's all shaping up like a phenomenal day for DFS hoops. But don't let me bore you with my gushing. There's some value to get cracking on.

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POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook - FD 11000 DK 11000
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 52.15 DK Proj. Pts - 54.05
Let's get this one out of the way early. When Russ is projected for minutes in the upper 30's in a game that's opening at 234 (an insanely high number that I'd be terrified of betting the under on) then you get on board and stay there. The game projects to stay close and you are going to want to have as much exposure here as possible. This is a day of tough calls and it starts with Russ vs. Steph. They are the same price on FanDuel where I think Russ is the clear play. Steph is cheaper on DraftKings and I like Curry there. Like I said, this is a tough day. But Westbrook, in a game like this, with his skill set is such an easy cash game play. In a game OKC will want to keep close at all costs, it isn't crazy to think he tops forty minutes and easily pays the day.

Shelvin Mack - FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 24.38 DK Proj. Pts - 25.95
One reason we are going to be able to pay up for ample stars on this slate is the existence of a couple of punt plays with opportunities well beyond their current pricing. Mack is one of those guys. He drew his second straight for the Jazz after landing their a week or so ago and has seen great minutes in those games. He was buzzed off last time because of the blowout against the Spurs, but don't expect the same thing against the Nets. Mack is a borderline must start here if you think he see around 30 minutes. His punt play salary lets you roster more than one superstar today.

Mike Conley - FD 6900 DK 7300
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 35.96 DK Proj. Pts - 38.14
If you opt to middle out instead of going stars and scrubs, Conley is one way to do it. I'm writing this a bit before the Grizz face the Lakers but that matchup should only help Conley's case. Conley sans Marc Gasol has become a focal point of the offense and in the last four games he's averaging about 15 field goal attempts per. That's about a 20% bump over his season average. Phoenix is terrible and the Grizz should get all over them.

SHOOTING GUARD

Klay Thompson - FD 7000 DK 7300
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 32.74 DK Proj. Pts - 36.3
Klay isn't a guy we talk about a lot around these parts for a couple of reasons. He's consistently over priced (in the short term at least) for his average production and that makes rostering him tough. He's also a guy who loses minutes first in a Warrior blowout (which seems to happen more than not) thanks to his rotations. But we have the minutes projected a bit higher than normal for this game and that gets him firmly in the discussion. Playing Klay today will largely depend on whether you want to middle your salaries or go more stars and scrubs. You really can't have it both ways with his tag. I see him as a top tournament play as he could get hot from three and OKC doesn't have a good defensive matchup for him.

Zach LaVine - FD 4900 DK 5300
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 25.07 DK Proj. Pts - 26.25
In Sam Mitchell's warped sense of order and stability, this is the game Zach Lavine will start. That's because the coach thinks it wise to swap he and Tayshaun Prince in and out of the first unit. You know, like every team does. Though one can take some solace in Lavine playing around the same minutes whether he's starting or not. He doesn't have an enormous ceiling, but he's steady eddie in this role. Won't break the bank on you and gets you cheapish minutes with the ability to score.

Andrew Wiggins - FD 6600 DK 6300
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 30.86 DK Proj. Pts - 31.71
I don't think I'll be playing too much of Wiggins today in cash games because his production is too scoring dependent and that's a tough road to go down when you are trying to lock in a high floor. He derives such a huge percentage of his fantasy points from his shot going down and doesn't pitch in much around the margins. But our system is high on him because the Pelicans are one of the worst defenses in the league.

SMALL FORWARD

Kevin Durant - FD 10400 DK 10100
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 47.44 DK Proj. Pts - 50.2
Am I writing all of the most expensive plays? Sure, why the hell not? That's the kind of night we're looking at and there are more where this came from. Durant is just another superstar projecting for higher than average minutes in a game Vegas thinks could moderately rival the All-Star game. Is that hyperbole? Sure but you get the point. Durant and Westbrook have such insane usage rates relative to the rest of the squad that grabbing them both on a high projection makes perfect sense for cash games. And there are enough cheap plays to make it happen.

Kawhi Leonard - FD 7900 DK 7600
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 38.98 DK Proj. Pts - 40.72
Will be interesting to see how some of my lineups shake out when lineups come to locking. Our system loves Kawhi against a Houston team ranked seventh in pace and fifth to last in defensive efficiency. But Vegas doesn't have the game getting out of hand and Kawhi should see minutes in the mid 30's. He went off last game against Utah with a 29/5/3 line that helps calm any fears about a lingering injury post ASB. Salary falls in that weird zone considering some of the other cheaper plays out there, but he's a fantastic play on DraftKings where he's just a smidge cheaper.

Bojan Bogdanovic - FD 3600 DK 3900
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 19.57 DK Proj. Pts - 21.35
Goodbye Joe Johnson, hello Bojan. It was a little tough to know how the Nets were going to play things once they bought out Johnson. They made it clear in the first game with Bojan grabbing the start, playing 38 minutes and rocking a 24/2 line. Even at lower projected minutes he comes in as a top points/$ play, matchup independent. You just won't find this kind of opportunity at minimum prices and you have to take advantage.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 10200 DK 10000
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 50.84 DK Proj. Pts - 51.61
Hey Doug, thanks for just recommending all of the most expensive guys. Anyone could have done that! For sure, and those that read us everyday know this isn't usually the way we roll. But today is an anomaly in that our system is just going nuts on some of these bigger money guys. Brow is just another example. His situation is a little different though. Dude's coming in at a slight discount simply because his tendency to shatter into a million little pieces when he's brushed just the wrong way on the court. That keeps the price in the acceptable range while he's back to playing huge minutes and looking like vintage Davis. The performances of last have been solid even if he's not putting it all together since the 90 point affair.

Gorgui Dieng - FD 6500 DK 6800
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 33.65 DK Proj. Pts - 34.18
Back to playing those money minutes, going over 40 in three of his last five games. The Timberwolves are shorthanded in the front court right now and Sam Mitchell seems to like playing Dieng and KAT at the four and five together. Is that good for the team? Mitchell doesn't know/care. He could be a double-double waiting to happen in this game against a Pelican team ranked 28th in the league in defense. Dieng is still a bargain as he's gone an average of 19/10 in the last two and only one buzz off in minutes has his recent game log as anything but pristine.

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 7000 DK 6700
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 36.94 DK Proj. Pts - 37.75
Follows much the same thinking as Kawhi. If Houston can keep the game close then Aldridge stands to see minutes in the mid 30's then Aldridge appears a high floor play against a Houston team that will struggle to guard him. The Rockets are a mess at the four this season and are allowing a crazy 16% more scoring than league average to the position. LMA could put in work, but I doubt he has a huge top end ceiling. I see him more as a safe play.

CENTER

Karl-Anthony Towns - FD 8900 DK 8600
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 43.16 DK Proj. Pts - 43.92
The Pelicans have been a disaster against centers/ everyone this season allowing 8% more scoring and 9% more rebounding than league average to the position. Great news for KAT who can score in bunches especially when the Wolves are force-feeding him the ball. He has huge upside, though does carry some risk if the shot isn't falling. the good news though is the Pelicans have no one to naturally match up with him inside and even at these higher price tags he makes for a dude with a high projected line.

Andrew Bogut - FD 4800 DK 4500
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 24.08 DK Proj. Pts - 24.51
Love, love, love the value on him if Golden State keeps him in the game. The problem is the big if in that statement. The Warriors play matchup ball and might not feel the need to go big against the Thunder. But if you think Bogut gets run in the higher twenties then he could dismantle these prices. The minutes are the key here as Bogut is just outside of the punt play range in price. But he could be staring down at a double-double if the game stays close and GSW wants to play through him some especially when/if Kanter gets on the court.

Mason Plumlee - FD 5300 DK 5000
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 26.49 DK Proj. Pts - 26.89

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