Friday is here. And I have to say, after a truly crazy week around the DFSR offices, I'm feeling a little TGIF right now. Wait, what? We work every day? Doh. But wait - we write about daily fantasy sports for a living! Okay, okay. I'm back. Tonight's an interesting slate for a few reasons. We've got a pile of fast and loose defenses, and at least 1 team (the Bulls) with a ton of playing time uncertainty. It also seems like it might take 400 points to win a big tournament tonight, so keep that in mind when building your GPP lineups.
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Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 36.05 DK Proj. Pts - 38.24
An easy one to start with. I wrote this the last time Conley played the Lakers (2 days ago, if you're keeping track at home), but this is literally the very perfect spot to play him. Not only have the Lakers allowed the most fantasy points to opposing point guards of any team in the league, the Grizzlies are essentially missing a whole team's worth of players as compared to what they were rolling out earlier this season. Conley put up 42 fantasy points in 29 minutes on Wednesday, and I see no reason why he shouldn't repeat that performance (or even exceed it, if the Lakers keep it close) on Friday.
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 44.12 DK Proj. Pts - 46.01
I'm straying slightly from the projection system on this one, for one simple reason: safety. Since we rolled out our new lineup optimizer, it's become increasingly obvious that the lineup with the best overall average projection isn't always the safest one. Paul's price has climbed specifically because he's so safe - he's on 6 straight games with 42 or more FanDuel fantasy points. He's also leading the league in time of possession per game again in February after leading the league in January (per SportVU tracking data), meaning a lot has to go wrong for him to not do what he normally does. Throw in a great match-up with the Kings (who have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing PGs this season) and I'm feeling great if I have him in my 50/50 lineups tonight.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 34.92 DK Proj. Pts - 36.94
It's a pretty tight knit group of point guards on a points per dollar projection basis tonight, but I'm going to submit Kyrie in the third spot. There are some favorable short term trends at play, of course - he's got back to back games with exactly 40.7 fantasy points. He's shot 21 times in 4 of his last 7 games (as compared to his 16 shots per game average on the season). And perhaps more importantly, this is a game the Cavs really want to win. They haven't run away with things in the East, and a nice head to head stomping would be great for morale. I suspect Kyrie plays extra minutes tonight and puts up production to go with it, even if Toronto is not a conventionally great match-up for opposing point guards.
Also considered: Deron Williams - he's been providing great value on these prices recently, but I'm a little spooked by the dislocated finger thing.
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 35.03 DK Proj. Pts - 36.6
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 27.33 DK Proj. Pts - 30.1
I could have guessed these two would be top values without even running the projections for tonight. I'm mostly scared about Oladipo and this "thigh bruise" stuff, but he was set to play big minutes before things got out of hand against Golden State last night. If he's feeling good, both of these guys have been playing huge minutes, and ought to do the same against the flailing Knicks team tonight. With Tobias Harris gone and Jennings playing less of a role in the offense than it looked like he'd play at first, they are both underpriced by about 10%. Buying opportunity for miles, and terrific 50/50 plays tonight.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 31.34 DK Proj. Pts - 32.69
I think we can safely say that we're in deeply underrated Monta territory right now. For a guy who doesn't get a lot of daily fantasy basketball love, Ellis has turned in 5x-6x points per dollar on these prices in 3 of his last 4 games. He's playing big, consistent minutes, and his role on this Pacers' squad seems very well defined. He'll also be up against Charlotte, who has managed to allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards in spite of playing a below average PACE this season. Don't mind Monta in any format, really, but would prioritize playing him in 50/50s over big tourneys.
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 24.45 DK Proj. Pts - 26.95
I hemmed and hawed for this last spot as well, but ultimately landed on Crawford due to his insane upside here. Crawford's minutes have been erratic enough that his price remains depressed, but he'll occasionally go out and play 38 minutes when he catches fire. If there's a game for him to catch fire, this seems like the one. The Kings have been the very worst in the league at defending the shooting guard position this season, and their team-wide agreement to not play defense makes this a ripe opportunity for him to go off. Not a 50/50 play for me at all (just because we're not totally clear how Jeff Green's presence is going to effect things long term), but upside as far as the day is long.
Keep an eye on the Derrick Rose situation. If he's out, E'Twaun Moore moves from a good play to a phenomenal play once again.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 25.33 DK Proj. Pts - 27.46
A case very similar to Mike Conley's. Barnes is one of the last men standing in Memphis, and has played 31-37 minutes in each of the games the New Grizzlies have played since the All-Star break. He's been terrific in two of those games, including a 39 fantasy point outburst against these same awful Lakers. Seems like there's safety and upside here, and I'd love to play him in all of my lineups.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 47 DK Proj. Pts - 48.85
It's always odd to write up big money guys when they don't have great match-ups, but I like LeBron for a lot of the same reasons I like Kyrie tonight. The Cavs don't often have a lot to play for in these games, but that's not the case tonight. In big games where it really matters, the Cavs are happy to run the offense through LeBron. He averaged 10 assists a game for a 6 game stretch before not being as relied upon in their last 2. In a statement game with the Raptors, it's hard to imagine that he won't be prominently featured. And remember - close games mean more possessions, which can't be a bad thing when you're paying up for a stud.
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 33.41 DK Proj. Pts - 34.81
I'm not sure what's gotten into Rudy Gay recently, but I like it. Sure, he's been shooting well, but there's more to it than that. Gay is playing big minutes for the Kings right now, and very oddly, he's doing far better than usual in "hustle stats" - blocks, steals, and rebounds. The question with Gay has never been the talent, it's been his full focus on the game. The good news here? The Clippers have made it this far without anyone who can really guard him. Jeff Green can make a case, but Gay will play at least 12 minutes with him off the floor. Seems like another high ceiling outburst game possibility.
Also considered: Paul George.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 32.88 DK Proj. Pts - 33.48
More Memphis throw-backs! Z-Bo has had a ridiculous usage with Gasol gone (to say nothing of Jeff Green, Courtney Lee, and Tony Allen as well), and he was methodical in putting up 31 fantasy points in 29 minutes in their last go-round with the Lakers. Nothing to see here - the Lakers are awful against everyone (power forwards included), and Z-Bo is a scientist in the post. This seems like the safest play of the night, perhaps at any position.
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 35.04 DK Proj. Pts - 36.22
Yet another player who is going to necessarily see higher prices if his current opportunity continues. Porzingis has been a fantasy point per minute guy since the moment he stepped on an NBA court, and Rambis seems to want to play him a ~33 minute rotation unless the game goes haywire. The Magic are not a team that should strike the fear in the heart of anyone, and furthermore, they've really struggled against power forwards in particular this season (allowing the 8th most fantasy points per game to them). We're still not at the point where we can call him super safe, but these multipliers will be awfully tough to pass up on even in cash games.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 36.99 DK Proj. Pts - 39.58
I get that it's not fun to read the same thing about multiple guys per night, okay? But even after double-checking the back end of the system, it's spitting out Kevin Love as a top play. It's a worthwhile thing to point out, actually. Teams that are involved in lots of blowouts, who are planning to go deep in the playoffs, will almost always play erratic minutes. They blow teams out, want to give people rest, etc. So, from a value perspective, if you can guess the games where they'll get their minutes, they become good plays. That's what is going on with all the Cavs love. Of the "big three" in Cleveland I trust love least, but imagine he'll show up in some optimal lineups for us tomorrow on an upside basis alone.
Also considered: Dirk. You seen the minutes the old man is playing recently?
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 39.09 DK Proj. Pts - 39.78
After Horford's evisceration of Golden State, the cat is unfortunately out of the bag here. No matter - he's still reasonably priced, and our projection system had us playing him in all the right spots leading up to this moment. The big thing here is the minutes - the Hawks have him playing 38+ minutes in reasonably close games, and that's just going to make him a better fantasy player. And then there's the match-up. The worst kept secret in the league this season has been Chicago's precipitous decline on the defensive end. They've allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, and Pau being under the weather can't possibly help matters here. I like Boogie (listed below), but I can definitely see saving up and grabbing Horford if it helps the money work elsewhere.
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 51.61 DK Proj. Pts - 52.23
The weird thing about fading Boogie today is that he's the highest points per dollar multiplier big money guy in the system today. So there's that. And it makes sense - he's averaging almost 50 fantasy points a game in the month of February, and this is a nice match-up against a Clippers team that has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Cousins was only good against the Clips the last time they clashed, but I suspect he'll be back in a big way in this one. I'm still up in the air as to whether I'll be anchoring my 50/50s around him or Horford, to be honest.
A guy no one will be on, who's been kind of great: Ian Mahinmi. The minutes are there, and he put up 42 fantasy points on a 5k salary against the Thunder. Just sayin'.
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View Comments
Surprised gortat isnt rated higher than horford
Horford gets more run than Gortat plus he's on the floor at the end of games.
Horford is playing against a beat up gasol, who's the worst defensive center in the nba.
The minutes just haven't been there for Gortat recently. Fewer minutes causes the obvious problem of less opportunity, but it also increases the variance of production dramatically.
Doug, i'm kinda caught between Redick and Crawford today. I'm leaning towards Redick as he is a much safer pick as his value isn't directly tied to Jeff Green.
Let me know what you think.
Redick seems safer, Crawford's irrational confidence drives huge upside.
Was wondering what I should look for when creating different lineups for GPP games and 50/50 games? Thanks. I've been a premium member for a while now and love your guys insite and constant updated info!
Hey Pete - you're going to want to focus on guys with erratic performance for big tournaments (or new opportunity), whereas you want known quantities (like Westbrook) for 50/50s. We're working on a way to pass this along numbers-wise, but haven't figured out a way to do this precisely just yet.
Got 7 of 8 guys i like for 50/50 on DK tonight, but trying to find a cheap guy with a good floor tonight. How do you feel about Al Jefferson against the Pacers? Would think he'd be on the floor alot with their two bigs
Hey Ryan,
I have no reason to think Jefferson will play more than the low 20s he's been playing - certainly not enough to call him too high a floor guy. But if you like his floor AT 22 minutes, then I say go for it.
"The Kings have been the very worst in the league at defending the shooting guard position this season, and their team-wide agreement to not play defense makes this a ripe opportunity for him to go off. "
That's Funny!!!!
I live to please!
Chris Paul has been banged up the last two games. Couple nights ago they had to call a timeout for him to stretch out his calf and he looked hobbled. Normally he's as consistent as they come but I wouldn't bet on him to put up big numbers in a tourney play tonight.
I don't want to fade E'twaun Moore but if Rose does play a Reddick-Crawford Stack at SG looks tempting. Both will play 30+ minutes in what should be a close high scoring game. A good bet to pay off 5x per dollar.
Not sure about you guys but Aaron Gordon has been killing me. He's gone over 30 FD points 7 games in row and 8 out of his last 10. As of now he's not in my lineup again tonight, not sure how much longer I can keep fading him.
Thanks for the observations! I like all of your thoughts here, but am still off the Aaron Gordon train at these prices. I like him better on a small slate, but just too many other good options for me to take a flier there.
Ronnie Price did me well stuck with my gut
Hey y'all anybody up for chatting about lineups? I'm pretty good at deciphering picks but I don't know any like minded individuals, hit me up I'm Paul, jplinares30@gmail.com
Thoughts on Bob Covington tonight vs the Wiz' "stellar" SF defense?
Not worth it to me - the minutes and opportunity are too erratic. Seems like a terrific big tournament play though.
I'm liking Covington a lot tonight, great match up. How about Jordan Clarkson now that he is listed as a SG on Fanduel for cash games?