Oklahoma City Thunder's Kevin Durant, right, and Russell Westbrook celebrate their team's 100-99 win against the Los Angeles Clippers in an NBA basketball game, Monday, Dec. 21, 2015, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Ah, Short Slate Thursday. There are a lot of casual players tonight planning to watch the national broadcast on TNT, looking for a little action. If that fits your profile, cool – we’re here to help everybody. For others, it can be a good opportunity for heavy action. Speaking of which, our offshore friends are looking for a lot of scoring in these games. The lowest O/U is 209.5. It’s a little weird though, in that there is not as much blowout risk as you’d think (relatively tight spreads). Player-wise, there are a few guys who look to have huge nights and a lot of lower-end guys with upside, and not so many mid-level values. It’s a good night to pay attention to whether you’re building cash or tourney lineups. Good luck and enjoy!
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Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 24.98 DK Proj. Pts - 26.46
Shelvin has gotten a big opportunity, and he’s producing in a big way. After a 10x Sunday, he went up 20% on DK. He then sank all the way to a 6x. His price went up again, as you’d expect, but it remains a good time to be on board. We’re looking for a solid 6x+ on FD and DK. When a player is projected to go for over 6x (remember, that’s the average expected production) and the minutes are sound, you don’t worry about floors and ceilings. Cash or tourney, play him with confidence and invest the money elsewhere.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 22.35 DK Proj. Pts - 23.83
On most nights, Sloan would be the top play at the position. He’s on a pretty bad team playing a really bad team. This is as good as it’s going to get in terms of running someone against the Suns and not worrying (much) about blowout risk. The matchup is league-best and Pace should be fine, and there’s a high floor with lots of upside. This is another low-end opportunity that’s hard to pass up, so take it and pocket some salary.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 51.14 DK Proj. Pts - 53.03
If you’re inclined to take the savings available pretty much everywhere and spend it at PG, Russ would be your man. I actually didn’t play him much on Wednesday, and I feel like I cheated on my wife (well, what I imagine it would feel like). There is the matter of the Pels and their attendant blowout risk, but it’s actually not so bad, with OKC only favored by 5. On most nights, if there’s money to be spent and Russ is on the slate, he’s where you spend it. After making an exception on Wednesday (to my chagrin), I doubt I’ll do so again.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.8 DK Proj. Pts - 36.34
‘Dipo is the best value on the board at SG on both FD and DK. He has been on fire coming out of the ASB, and we see that continuing. He’s also a nice mid-level values on this slate. This may not continue as his price is creeping up. Going against the Dubs always has some risk involved – this is one of only two games with a spread approaching double-digits (8.0 as I’m writing). That’s not at all bad considering. And their DvP against the 2 is actually not very good (bottom 3rd of the league). I see this as a good place to take the chalk.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 27.15 DK Proj. Pts - 29.86
Evan Fournier has been a mirror image of his running mate, just at a slightly lower price point. Obviously, all of the same matchup dynamics apply. The high-value opportunity window is likewise slowly sliding closed as the price creeps up. Like Oladipo, this is a mid-tier play. I generally only like to stack in tournaments (which I strongly suggest tonight), but I did so in cash games with this duo on Tuesday and they didn’t disappoint. I’m considering going there again.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 23.9 DK Proj. Pts - 27.1
If you don’t want too much exposure against GSW, Booker is an option to consider. His shot has been off coming back from the ASB, so the production has dipped. We see his minutes bouncing back, and, as noted above, catching the Suns as a mere 2-point dog is not going to happen often. The Pace should be o.k. The one word of caution is that the positional matchup isn’t great (BKN is 9th against SGs). Still, all things considered, Booker is a pretty decent, lower-end value play (especially on FD) that the DFSR system really likes.
While the top three guys at this position pretty much separate themselves from the pack, I want to mention Avery Bradley on DK, where he’s a little cheaper and he gets rewarded for hitting the 3.
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 26.72 DK Proj. Pts - 29.79
On a night that’s just not good for the position, Ariza is the top option on DK and a very good one on FD. It’s a tough matchup as the Blazers defend the 3 really well (2nd overall DvP), but the Rockets roll him out for a ton of minutes. He’s been a stud the last two as his shot has fallen, but he has generally got a decent floor because he’s strong other places, particularly defense, where he averages over 2 steals per. He carries an average salary, so if you want to step away from the studs-and-duds a bit, this is a good opportunity.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 21.18 DK Proj. Pts - 22.67
Tucker is the best play on FD, and it’s not even close. That speaks further to the quality of the position on this slate. Before Monday’s poor showing, he’d shown a solid floor almost all month. That was a (massive) blowout, so the minutes should be back, and the floor as well. Already discussed the matchup, which drives the upside. Note that on DK the prices are more dynamic, so he had a relatively large adjustment with the one bad game. Though he’s not the top-ranked option on DK, he’s close, and I think this is a good place to get him some run there. It’s a no-brainer on FD.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 44.24 DK Proj. Pts - 46.82
With appealing low-end options aplenty, you’re going to have to spend up somewhere. This is one of the places on DK, where Durant’s price is lower and he gets rewarded for connecting from beyond the arc (on FD, there are some better options for excess cash). The matchup has been covered elsewhere. This game has three of the top players in the game on the floor together. I strongly consider getting him into your DK lineup, sitting back, and enjoying the show.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 36.12 DK Proj. Pts - 37.57
Thaddeus is the 2nd-best Pts/$ option on the board for FD, and 3rd-best on DK. He gets high-30s minutes most nights, and with the lack of blowout risk, we’re projecting the same against Phoenix. Big picture, he has shown a very solid 4x floor and spiked above 7x earlier this month. The potential is there again tonight. This isn’t a savings opportunity, just a pure value play.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 49.31 DK Proj. Pts - 50.05
And now… the Brow. He comes with his signature “Caution – Fragile” label, but as long as he stays on the court, the DFSR system likes him to put up (at least) a 5x. At this price level, that’s hard to find. I’ve discussed the team matchup ad nauseam, and the positional matchup is fine – OKC is pretty average defending the PF position. AD is pretty unique anyway so I don’t usually worry too much about his matchup exposure. This is where you spend up, cash or tourney, both sites.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 28.15 DK Proj. Pts - 29.17
Over his last four games, Jabari has been on fire, and we like the production level to continue. Note that his price has predictably shot up nearly 25% on DK, so he’s merely a solid choice there. On FD he’s a top-end PF option. The C’s play at a ridiculous Pace and are terrible defending the PF position (25th in the league). This isn’t a punt play, but on FD it’s a solid value opportunity, and I like him for a balanced cash game lineup.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 21.28 DK Proj. Pts - 21.68
Here we have another low-investment value opportunity. Coming off a 6.5x last time out, he just finished a similar beat-down against the Mavs interior. Adams has a rock-solid 4x floor and the potential to spike any given night. He’s going against the Pels and their terrible defense against true big men. I have a hard time not taking the extra money and going with the elite options discussed above.
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 37.89 DK Proj. Pts - 38.56
If you want to spend up here without breaking the bank, this is a good spot, particularly on DK. When he has been on the floor this month, he has produced, with a 4x floor and 4 games at or above 6x. Portland is terrible against the 5, the game’s got a huge O/U and decent spread. I see Dwight set up for a nice night, and he’s a legit cash option if you don’t snag Adams and the savings. I also really like him as a Utility on DK (where you should have the money unless you’re going Russ/Brow).
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 39.03 DK Proj. Pts - 39.55
It’s not very common that a player is significantly more costly on FD than DK, but that’s what we have here, just like Howard. Vucevic is a solid play on FD, but the equal of Howard on DK. He should be a nice contrarian play going against the Warriors, so I like him a lot as a DK tourney pick. I see nothing wrong with too many options at one position, especially on a short slate. This is a great way to get some lineup diversity for those running multiples.
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View Comments
Thoughts on Mirza Teletovic, Brook Lopez, Jae Crowder, and Patty Mills tonight?
All good picks
Teletovic consistently hitting value and averaging 23.8 L5.
Lopez L3 has been a monster.
Crowder L5 32.9 pts good DVP. I like Crowder for cash and Ariza more GPP.
Mills fade. While his L5 is hitting value he can through up some duds but more so he is facing Utah. Better low end picks Sloan, Mack, Price, Pressey.
Mirza is interesting in that the Suns PF minutes are all over the place. Like him for tournaments.
I think without Morris and Len's injury Tele is safer than you think for cash
I agree with the PG picks
SG Oladipo I say fade, you always have a chance that GSW just phase you out and at $6900 FD I would rather pay $5500 for Fournier or pay up for Klay or CJ who has a great match up, pace, and total game points.
Booker I think is an alright pick but his last 5 games have been 8.2, 22.8, 13.7, 35.4, 14.6 pts and the 35.4 pts games was against the high paced GSW where he played over 40 minutes. I think a better option is Joe Johnson at $5400 who has a terrific DVP and has also been averaging 25 pts L5 but only because 1 dud of a game where he registered -0.1 pts against Memphis and played only 22 minutes.
A nice punt option is OJ Mayo at $3900, last two games he has been hitting value and L2 averaging 31 minutes without Bayless.
SF is crap but I will not touch Tucker even though he is getting the minutes without Warren available. Tucker's L5 is 18.8 pts and while he has a good DVP he has had way too many signal digit DFS pts games to recommend for cash.
Ariza is a good play with a L5 of 28.4 but has a bad DVP and only $4700 I would gamble and pick Al-Farouq who has a terrific DVP but just a terrible L5 at 17.3 pts and take the savings and invest other where.
Agree with the C picks but the absence of Brook Lopez is odd. Not a great match up BUT Len is out so Lopez will only need to beat Chandler. L5 40.5 pts but really the L5 has been suppressed by his 19.8 pts in Den and 29.8 pts in Mem, while his L3 53.6, 43, 56.5 pts
I never trust pop. You would figured Parker would take it easy considering he played yesterday but you never know who will and wont play until few minutes before game time. Plus playing a slow aced team in utah w lowest over/under
Ha there's a reason "Getting Pop'd" is a saying in DFS
Not sure I understand that OKC/NO line. They just lost to OKC by 26 and it wasn't close and they got blown out by an Ok'ish Wizards team their last game. Plus Asik is down and their front court is garbage now having to play Perkins.
It doesn't make sense to me at first glance (along with the lines for GS/ORL and SA/UTA, since all three games include clearly superior teams). The common thread is that all three favorites are on the road and on the second night of a back-to-back. Vegas likely accounting for fatigue.
Dipo is a GTD now. Great.
I'm playing 8 lineups tonight on FD. Lineup breakdown:
PG--Using 7 total PGs (players rostered an average of 2.29 times, or each PG in an average of 28% of my lineups).
SG--Same (using 7 total SGs, same %s as PG).
SF--Using 6 SFs (rostered an average of 2.67 times, 33% of my lineups)
PF--Using 5 (rostered an average of 3.2 times, 40% of lineups)
C--Casting a wide net and using 5 guys (1.6 rostered average, 20% of lineups)
Contingency plans for if Dipo doesn't play only changes the number of SGs to 6, otherwise just general shuffling of money to make the lineups balanced.
I wanna pick dipo but I like cj McCollum better tho he's going against James harden. Mt question is should I fade the high price players tonight? It's hard to fade Westbrook tho cause that's 45-55 fdp guaranteed
I'm worried about Dipo with the injury question marks. Will most likely downgrade him in system.
Keep an eye on Joe Johnson. Being reported Nets have started the buyout process.
Yup. Mentioned this in the updates article. I doubt anything happens today though.
Why do you guys keep recommending PJ TUcker. That dude sucks and his a risky pick at best. You've been recommending him the last few weeks and he has not delivered. The last game he did anything remotely decent was against OKC over 2 weeks ago. As they say on ESPN Sunday Football..."C'mon Man". And yeah maybe he does good tonight, but I'd rather take my chances with someone else.
Hey Corey. thanks for the comment. Agree that Tucker is a risky play, but he's paid 5x twice in last 5 games with a good/not great showing against Spurs. But he's got some stinkers in there. Our system pulls the weighted mean, but he does seem to have a high sDev.
What happened to Shelvin Mack in the lineup tool?
Was a brief data glitch. He's back now.
why are players missing from the lineup tool? shelvin mack? dev booker?
I'm in my first month of membership and the value hasn't quite been what i'd hoped.
Love the daily advice articles though!
Was a brief data glitch. Those guys are back now. Shocked to hear this on the value add. Projections on point of late. Optimal lineups as well.