Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James holds the ball away from Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas during the second quarter of a NBA basketball game in Boston Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
Welcome to the daily updates and injury news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock tonight.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
Special Note: Our new optimizer is available! Click the button below to check it out and see if it's right for you.
Now let’s look at some news that’s come in throughout the day to see if anything’s changed in our minds or in the NBA landscape. It's a shorter slate and a light news day, but we'll be updating as stuff rolls in. Also throw out some ideas in the comments and we can take it from there.
Johnson was only playing 22 minutes a game, but he was shooting with some frequency during those minutes, and my guess is that SVG redistributes at least some of these minutes to KCP (who has played big minutes in the past) and Tobias Harris in particular. I'm also considering Marcus Morris for this reason.
It seems like Rambis is almost ready to pull the trigger on putting Galloway in the starting lineup, where he's been very successful from a fantasy perspective in the past. Nothing to see yet, unfortunately, so this is more an effort to put it on your radar for the moment Galloway takes his rightful role in the Knicks' starting 5.
Irrelevant, mostly, except now you can at least avoid any temptation whatsoever to put him anywhere. Word is that Andre Roberson might move into the starting lineup, but that's not exciting at all.
A lot of dominoes fall in San Antonio depending on Leonard's status, so I will probably stay away from them unless we hear something definitive, even in a great match-up with the Kings. As for now, I'm assuming he's out (which would make Aldridge a great play on increased usage in a nice match-up). Still, Aldridge feels a little bit more like a big tourney play to me given the fact that Kawhi could come back and resume his normal role. Overcautious, possibly, but worth it on a big slate if you ask me.
He went through shoot-around and it looks like he'll play against the Warriors, but I wouldn't stake my bankroll on it until I hear for sure that he's in the starting lineup. Finger injuries are always tricky on shooting percentages as well, and there's always blowout risk when the Dubs are involved. Seems like a big tournament play only from where I'm sitting, even if Deng has been great in his new Bosh-less role.
He's being listed as doubtful right now, which leads me to assume he'll likely miss tonight's game. I've updated the projection system accordingly. The situation in Memphis is interesting. They lost Jeff Green and Courtney Lee, and with Allen gone as well, there are definitely some minutes that need to go somewhere. Chalmers has seen a slight boost, and Vince Carter has had a few games north of 20 minutes. There has been an increase in Lance Stephenson sightings as well. None seem very safe from where I'm sitting, but I'd be interested if any of them got a start tonight considering the great match-up with the Lakers.
He missed Tuesday's practice with "flu-like symptoms," but was at practice today. Looks all clear, but it never hurts to double-check before investing this much salary.
Powered by our brand new lineup optimizer! Here are guys our projection system thinks you should build your lineups around tonight.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 36 DK Proj. Pts - 38.19
Insane match-up with one of the league's worst defenses, and he's one of the only men left standing with Gasol, Lee, Jeff Green, and likely Tony Allen gone as well. Conley will be prominently featured here, and I love playing him everywhere.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 47.59 DK Proj. Pts - 49.52
LeBron has been clowning opposing defenses recently, last game's stinker against the Pistons notwithstanding. And he's still priced 8%+ less than most of the "superstar" tier in daily fantasy basketball right now. I particularly like him in this match-up, too. The Hornets have allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season in spite of playing a below average PACE overall (and they're even slower with their first unit). He seems as safe as can be, and I love him for 50/50s and double-ups.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 30.03 DK Proj. Pts - 31.79
He has already been playing 35 minutes a game for SVG, and Stanley Johnson's absence only secures his role. And Philly is awful. I can see this price rising 10%, so it's a great buying opportunity in a good match-up.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below - on us! You can also get started with DFSR pro - our brand new lineup optimizer!
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View Comments
UGH, just don't know if I can stomach fading westbrook. I love conley d will and d rose too and their price points are better but this guy is a lock for 45 plus consistently
Yeah, and to be clear - Westbrook's projection is good. Our top Westbrook lineup is projected for just 1.5 points fewer than our non-Westbrook optimal squad. For what it's worth, though 45 points on an 11k salary on a huge night like this is sort of a disaster. Our system likes him for 50, though, so I don't mind him at all.
James, is there a reason that ZaZa's projection dropped?
I lowered his minutes because all the Dallas guys looked inflated after 3 straight overtime games. His minutes now reflect a more conservative number so people don't interpret him as a guy you just have to play in every lineup.
Matt Barnes has burned me twice already that's why I am tempted to play him again tonight lol
Feast or famine Barnes! I don't mind him tbh. But only for big tourneys.
Trying to avoid the lineup killer tonight. Got a few tickets in the mega and trying to avoid as much risk as possible. Seems like for the past week there's been a guy every projection loved that ended up laying an egg like Korver, Thompson, Crawford and last night with Harkless. Its why a guy like Westbrook is so appealing. He may not hit "value" but such a security blanket.
Yeah I can't fault that thinking. We're working on a data-driven way to determine "safety." Some measures, like standard deviation (either points or minutes) fall short without some serious subjectivity thrown in as well. And any subjective matter is very difficult to scale for every player every night. Some guys are going to be "safer" some nights than others, too, as a function of things like other player being out, blow-out risk, distance from the most recent injury, back-to-back stuff, etc. A tangled web, determining safety.
Looking forward to what you come up with :) It's just hard to lock in on some of these guys. Like did Crawford and T.Thompson just have bad nights or is there more to it than that like Jeff Green and Channing Frye coming over messed up some things rotation wise??? I know there's a ton that goes into all of this and guys have off nights just would be awesome if there was some sort of "safest punt picks" type recommendation. Enjoy everything you guys are doing!!!
thoughts...
conley westbrook
crawford moore
james barnes
randolph porzingis
zaza
I assume that's Harrison since it doesn't work with Matt, price wise. Our system projects that at 293 points - almost 10 points off the optimal lineup.
How will this do, rose, vince carter, dudley, love, drummond, parker, aldridge, dieng
I'm a little worried about Carter if Allen were to play (Q now)
Thoughts
Paul
Lowery
Jj
Pope
Barnes
T Harris
Love
Lamarcus
A Jefferson
No Pope for me. And I'm looking a little cheaper at PG.
How is Dragic not a mentioned? There is no backup for him
Yup. A miss there. I bumped his minutes up with the Udrih new.
you have eliis listed as the top ppd play on dk for shooting guard, wrote about crawford? do you consider ellis more of a gpp play?
Probably. He plays a million minutes but has varying performance levels. Still like him tonight though.
Hey James I'm stuck on 3 guys I love the rest of my lineup but should I go J.Crawford, E.Moore and S.Ibaka or my first choice J.Crawford, L.Stephenson or Z.Randolph I love Crawford for a bounce back game tonight and now I'm having second thoughts on Stephenson in my lineup over Moore but then again I like Randolph over Ibaka too he always let's me down
Hey Bradley. Jumping in for James here. I would definitely have questions about Stephenson from a safety standpoint. I like the Jamal, Moore, Serge group.
Thank you appreciate the response I'm hoping Ibaka finally gets me a good game close to 35 fantasy points he is so do for a huge night