Rickie Fowler on the 16th hole during the final round of the Phoenix Open golf tournament, Sunday, Feb. 7, 2016, in Scottsdale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
DFSR is proud to bring you Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. If you are new to DraftKings PGA DFS be sure to click on the banner below.
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for The Honda Classic? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Just scroll to the bottom of the picks. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
PGA National (Champion Course)
Par 70 - 7,140 Yards
The Northern Trust Open just wrapped up with Bubba Watson taking down his third title here at Riviera in three years. It was a terrific Sunday that saw multiple players with a chance on the closing nine holes. Bubba ended up with a birdie on two of his final three holes to pick up the one shot victory over Jason Kokrak and Adam Scott. Check out the Sunday recap below from PGATour.com.
The PGA Tour will now leave the state of California and head East to Florida for a four week stretch of tournaments in the Sunshine State. First up on the Florida swing will be the Honda Classic held at the PGA National (Champions Course). This 7,158 yard Par 70 golf course is very tough test for the players. It is always rated as one of the toughest courses on tour and is known most for the famous "Bear Trap" which consists of the 179 yard Par 3 15th hole, the 434 yard Par 4 16th hole and the 190 yard Par 3 17th hole. While these may not feel like tough holes. Take a look at this preview:
There will be bogeys made in this stretch of holes and the key is to limit the damage and not put up a big number. The entire course is protected by water forcing players to be extremely accurate off the tee. There are many times a player will have to lay up off the tee with a 3 Wood or less to ensure a decent lie for their second shot or to avoid possible trouble in the bunkers or water. For this reason I am weighting Driving Accuracy quite a bit ahead of Distance this week. Also, due to the laying up we will also want to look for players who are accurate from 150-175 and especially from 175-200 yards as there will be a ton of approaches from these distances. With the average greens in regulation lower than usual players will have to be able to scramble in close to the green and avoid Bogey's or worse. I will be heavily weighting Scrambling inside 10 yards and Bogey Avoidance this week. As always I will be looking closely at a players Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.
It was another week of carnage in DFS last week with a lot of top names missing the cut(Spieth, Streb, Mahan, Haas, Walker, Jones, Garcia and more). Our cash lineup managed to cash with only 4 of 6 through the cut and I feel this week will be much of the same. Finding cut makers is key. I believe at a such a tough course this week that course history is most important followed closely by current form and then weighted statistical averages.
I will again this week be interacting through the comments section below and ready to answer any questions about Fantasy Golf or anything you wanna talk about. Join the conversation. And as always, I am available on Twitter @Jager_bombs9.
Below are the main stats I am weighting on the cheatsheet this week. Up to 20 PGA Tour stats are used each week. The cheatsheet also provides last 5 years of tournament history and last 5 tournaments of current form. I have also added a tab showing the course layout and yardages as well as a breakdown of the Top 10 and key stats from last years Honda Classic.
Rickie Fowler
Vegas Odds - 10/1
Draftkings - $11,700
Fantasy Feud - $186,000
Fantasy Aces - $6,100
I think Rory's finish on Sunday (Shot a 75 after an opening Eagle) might have kept his price within striking distance of the field this week. I am still leaning Rickie this week. Rory could end up having a great tournament but I will take the savings with similar upside. Rickie ranks 2nd in my stats model this week as he ranks highly in many of the key stats highlighted by a 1st overall rank in Par 5 Scoring Average and Scrambling from inside 10 yards. He has made the cut here in four straight years and is currently riding some terrific form. He is coming off a runner up loss in a playoff to Matsuyama at the Phoenix Open and won the HSBC Golf Championship in Abu Dhabi two prior. And seriously....how could you fade that smile?
Patrick Reed
Vegas Odds - 20/1
Draftkings - $10,600
Fantasy Feud - $165,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,850
Reed is always one of my favorites anytime we are looking for a Ball Striker type(combination of Driving Distance & Accuracy & GIR). He is currently ranked 5th in Ball Striking(Distance-64, Acc - 38, GIR - 18) with his weakness being Proximity from long range. He isn't awful by any means and he makes up for it by being a tremendous scrambler and also ranks 1st in Bogey Avoidance. He has played here in each of the last three years and has improved his final position each year (58th - 2013, 24th - 2012, 7th - 2015). If you believe in trends a sure fire Top 5 finish and possibly a win is coming his way. No matter what you are looking at this week(trends, stats, form, history) Reed makes a terrific pick in any format.
Branden Grace
Vegas Odds - 28/1
Draftkings - $10,300
Fantasy Feud - $151,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,100
He will be making his first start on the PGA Tour in North America since last August's Wyndham Championship. Although he has only played here once back in 2013 and finished 71st his current form on the European Tour cannot be ignored. He is coming off a win at the Qatar Masters and has five other Top 10 finishes dating back to the DP World Tour Championship in November. He has also made two starts on the PGA Tour this season and finished T17 at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia and T5 at the HSBC Champions in China. His driving accuracy scares me a little and will limit my exposure to GPP only this week.
Russell Knox
Vegas Odds - 40/1
Draftkings - $9,700
Fantasy Feud - $133,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,850
This is my favorite high risk GPP play this week. First off, he is over priced for his current form as he has missed 2 of his last 3 cuts and hasn't been playing well since winning the HSBC Champions and then finishing runner up at the OHL the next week. He has finished 2nd and 3rd in the last two years and missed the cut the previous week both times. His game fits this course as well as he is ranked 16th in ball Striking highlighted by a 17th rank in Driving Accuracy and a 1st Rank in GIR. He is also ranked 2nd on Tour in Bogey Avoidance. The key this week will be hitting the greens for him as he has struggled Scrambling from inside 10 yards. I think a lot of people will lean towards Kisner in the same range this week and he also makes a great pick but in GPP's I will take Knox at a lower ownership this week.
Luke Donald
Vegas Odds - 50/1
Draftkings - $8,600
Fantasy Feud - $130,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,750
If you are looking for a course horse look no further than Mr. Donald this week. He finished 7th last, 8th the year before, 10 in 2011, 2nd in 2008, 46th in 2007, and won this event back in 2006. Five Top 10's in six stars is pretty incredible at a beast such as the PGA National. He makes up for his inaccuracy and length with a terrific scrambling game and is Top 40 in Strokes Gained Tee to Green.
Emiliano Grillo
Vegas Odds - 66/1
Draftkings - $7,000
Fantasy Feud - $116,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,450
The PGA Tour rookie had a terrific start to his career with a win at the FRYS.com. He has been quiet since then with two missed cuts in six events(Tourny of Champions is a no cut event) and hasn't finished better than 33rd in a full filed event since the win. His stat rankings have remained solid with tougher competition and is a Top 10 Ball Striker who ranks inside the Top 50 in both Proximity Distances I am looking at this week. He will be making his first trip to PGA National and the Honda Classic and I foresee a successful trip with Top 25 finish upside.
Also Consider - Charles Howell III(GPP), Jason Dufner(Any)
Jeff Overton
Vegas Odds - 200/1
Draftkings - $6,800
Fantasy Feud - $53,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,150
*Warning. Proceed with Caution* He is a GPP only play with a ton of risk this week. He withdrew just two holes into the Northern Trust Open last week with a wrist injury but has not pulled out of the Honda Classic to this point. If he does end up playing he could be one of those very low owned plays with a ton of upside. Before withdrawing last week he has made six straight cuts including a 6th at the RSM Classic. He is coming back to a tournament and course he has had success at with five straight made cuts here including a T7 last year and T6 back in 2011.
Stewart Cink
Vegas Odds - 200/1
Draftkings - $6,600
Fantasy Feud - $48,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,100
He is one of the few low end plays I will feel comfortable playing in cash games this week. He has made four straight cuts here and 7 of 8 in his career. His statistics are highlighted by a 15th rank in Ball Striking, 11th in GIR, and 14th when looking at Par 3 Scoring Average which will be handy as there are a couple beasts on this course. His form coming in has also been pretty good as he has made 6 of 9 cuts this year with two Top 25 finishes. Getting Cink in your lineup will allow more room to roster some top players in cash as the $7K-$8K range is a tough one this week.
Also Consider - Jim Herman(ANY), Harold Varner III(GPP), Michael Thompson(GPP)
I will be updating this thread leading up to the start of the tournament with any relevant news, withdraws, qualifiers, etc... If there is anything you think could be added please email me or comment below and I will try and add it.
Weather Update:
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for The Honda Classic? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
The Honda Classic
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
image sources
Week 12 DraftKings and FanDuel cash game NFL plays.
DraftKings and FanDuel Week 11 cash game NFL plays
Week 10 NFL cash game picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks & Projections Playing NBA DFS Nightly? Join one…
Week 9 NFL DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Packed slate of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings
View Comments
Thoughts on going studs/scrubs this week or going more balanced. Thinking the expensive guys at this course with the wind expected could be a bit risky.
I am not a fan of the $7K range so I will be going a $11K guy, two $8K guys and some $6K guys for GPP's. There is a great site I found called golfbettingsystem.co.ok and they have a PGA Predictor tool. It is the same with stat weights I use but adds additional info like Florida positive, wind positive, Par 70 positive, etc.. You can adjust the weights and spit out up to 25 players. I love using it for wind tournaments as i clear all fields and put wind positive at 10, florida positive at 10 and bermuda positive at 10. This gives a good read in tot eh guys who should do well if it is windy there.
That website is crazy awesome. Thanks for the info. I put in your weights and it dialed in my cash lineup. Added scrambling and Par 70 positive and it really confirmed my research. You rock sir!!