Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/23/16

Tuesday's here! And to be real with you for a second, it's a seriously crazy day for us. We have a brand new lineup tool coming out today (I'll replace this text once it's fully launched), and we have some other potentially huge developments coming in the not to distant future. We just launched our stats and research page - where you can get access to a lot of the data that goes into our projection system. Meanwhile, there's daily fantasy politics to follow, with a bunch of insane candidates vying for the right to rule us. Okay, okay. Just the picks, James. I get it. Don't worry - my focus is totally on nailing this slate for y'all. So let's get to it.

If you want to grab a free trial of the winning projections that inform each and every one of these picks, check out our lineup construction tool for DraftKings and FanDuel. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL (and MLB when the time comes)! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!

POINT GUARD

Emmanuel Mudiay - FD 5600 DK 5900
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.23 DK Proj. Pts - 28.37
After a one game break from being a great play at these prices, Mudiay went back to work against the Celtics, putting up a solid 18/5/3 in just 30 minutes in a blowout loss to the Celtics. I've written this before, and I hate to repeat myself, but Mudiay is simply under-priced if he's going to cost less than $6,000 and play 33+ minutes per game. He gets a significant boost here because of the man who will be guarding him. David Thorpe had a terrific take on Rondo's defense on a recent Zach Lowe podcast - essentially, Rondo is simultaneously gambling too much for steals while also not doing the hard work of playing the team defense the modern NBA requires. This is great new for Mudiay, who can occasionally be overwhelmed by defense first point guards. He's got a high floor here, and enough ceiling that I'd recommend him in any format.

Jrue Holiday - FD 7800 DK 7400
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 34.87 DK Proj. Pts - 36.44
I haven't recommended Holiday very much while he's been in a backup role, but I'm doing so tonight. There are a few factors in play, here. First of all, Tyreke Evans' absence has opened up a lot of on-ball time. This has seriously helped Jrue be a part of more offensive possessions, and it's shown. He's averaged more than 45 fantasy points a game in his last 5 contests, in spite of averaging fewer than 32 minutes. And yes, the Wizards are good match-up for opposing point guards generally, having allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing PGs this season. But there's more than that. Holiday's a special consideration on most nights because he doesn't play against first units very often. And the Wiz? They drop off dramatically with John Wall off the floor. Wall's real plus minus is 3.37 - the 6th best number in the league - and the Wizards' back-up options are a heck of a lot worse defensively than he is. Jrue is a great play in all formats, here.

Ish Smith - FD 6500 DK 6900
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 29.74 DK Proj. Pts - 30.55
I really like the above guys better if we're talking safety, but Ish is a strong consideration for me tonight as well. What's happened that has led to Smith's brief statistical decline? Well, it's unfortunately more than a little bit of bad luck from the field. Ish has enjoyed great success in Philly primarily because of his terrific driving ability. His 14.3 drives per game in the month of January led the NBA, but that number has dropped to 9.5 in February. And it's probably because of his ankle issues. Wow, that was a lot of negativity. Why is he still a recommendation? Well, 9.5 drives per game is still a lot, and he's still had 2 very solid games on these prices in his last 4. I also think he'll give either Elfrid Payton or Brandon Jennings a hard time in this one, giving him a higher floor than usual. The long write-up here is mostly to tune you in to what happens with Smith going forward. If his ankle gets right and he starts driving 13+ times per game again, he'll instantly be a $7,500 value.

Also considered, weirdly: Brandon Jennings. Back to back games with 25 minutes, and he's paid these prices going away in both of them. He's got a role with this Magic team, and there's huge upside here. It seems like Skiles really likes taking some of the load off of Payton, so I like being a buyer while Jennings is at a buyer's price.

SHOOTING GUARD

Victor Oladipo - FD 6800 DK 6700
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 35.47 DK Proj. Pts - 37.1
Evan Fournier - FD 5400 DK 5800
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 24.76 DK Proj. Pts - 27.34
The big talk around the DFS offices after the trade deadline centered around one team's rotations: the Orlando Magic. They play a strange smattering of combo guards (Oladipo and Fournier front and center), and it was unclear how the absence of Harris and the arrival of Jennings would muddy the waters. Well, 2 games in, and neither of these guys has suffered. Oladipo is plugged into 38+ minutes per game, and Fournier is good for 34+. Oladipo has paid 6x+ points per dollar in each of his last 2 games, and Fournier 5x+. One of them will draw Covington here, but the rest of the defense is bad enough that Philly should be at least a league average match-up for these two. I like them both on a short slate.

The trouble with the 3rd shooting guard spot
Luckily for you, you only have to play 2 shooting guards. I'm fairly dedicated to writing about 3. But I don't know who to give you here, honestly. James Harden has been great, but are you going to take him against a team who not only plays the league's slowest PACE but also features two great rim protectors? I won't. Rodney Hood has really tailed off. The Sacramento shooting guard situation is a mess. So, it's with some trepidation that I present to you a guy who I think will be a chalk play everywhere:

C.J. McCollum - FD 7400 DK 7200
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 30.23 DK Proj. Pts - 32.16
Yup. The Nets have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. Joe Johnson is basically a Walking Dead extra right now. And McCollum is a really exciting player. The problem is that he's just expensive. He's averaged just 32 fantasy points a game this season on 18 shots per game, and that's about what he's shooting these days as well. I might wind up talking myself into this because I just know he'll be such a popular play, but I'm hoping I keep a steady hand and stay away.

Also considered: Gary Harris.
 

SMALL FORWARD

Rudy Gay - FD 7100 DK 6700
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 35.26 DK Proj. Pts - 36.74
Danilo Gallinari - FD 7100 DK 7100
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 33.5 DK Proj. Pts - 36.29
It's going to be a fast paced game, and the Kings and the Nuggets have allowed the 6th and 11th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards, respectively, this season. Neither Gallo nor Gay really play very much defense unless they absolutely have to, and this has all the makings of one of those pick-up games where you and the guy covering you have an unspoken agreement to not go all out on the defensive end. They're basically the same price, you so you can flip a coin or hedge by playing Gay on DraftKings where he's a little bit cheaper.

Gordon Hayward - FD 7600 DK 7000
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 33.44 DK Proj. Pts - 35.52
It looks like it's just a day to middle out at small forward from where I'm sitting. Hayward's been the vision of consistency in his last 6 games, paying no fewer than 31 fantasy points in any of them. Meanwhile, he'll be up against an old and tired version of Trevor Ariza that just isn't the guy who earned a great defensive reputation a half a decade ago. The Rockets have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season, and Hayward will be asked to do a lot here. He's a nice 50/50 option, with some sneaky upside if he catches fire.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 10300 DK 10200
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 50.08 DK Proj. Pts - 50.84
I have to say, it feels good to be right sometimes. Our projection system has been beating the Davis horn even as he's mocked and scorned throughout the rest of the industry, and Brow put up a season best eighty-nine fantasy points against the Pistons on Sunday. But really, this is nothing new. Davis has been the same points-per-minute animal that he's always been this season, and has generally pleased his fantasy owners when healthy. And that's a big "when." Davis' year to date and per game totals look pretty lousy in large part because of the considerable number of games where he's left early. Did last game convince you that he's healthy enough? How about healthy enough to go up against Markieff Morris and Nene? I'm playing Davis everywhere.

Thaddeus Young - FD 6900 DK 6800
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 35.25 DK Proj. Pts - 36.59
Thaddeus Young has played 38 minutes in each of his last two games, and our projection system positively adores him for it. This is one of those "simple math problem" situations. Young is averaged 30.1 fantasy points a game on 32.75 minutes per game this season. He's likely to play in the high 30s today. He's not priced high enough to account for the increase in minutes. Portland is a league average defense. See how that works? A very high floor play, here.

Derrick Favors - FD 7400 DK 7300
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 37.03 DK Proj. Pts - 37.52
A higher upside, but lower floor version of Thad Young. He's playing slightly more minutes per game (34.5 vs. his season average of 32), but also parlaying that with a bigger role in the offense and being more active on the boards. He also has a dream match-up - the Rockets' rotating cast at the 4 has been abysmal on D, allowing the very most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this year. Hmm, I may have just talked myself into playing him above Young even though our system thinks otherwise.

The Home Run Play: Josh Smith, if he's starting again. It was a very weird performance for him in the last game he started, where he was nothing like the guy he had been on a per minute basis earlier this season. Now, he's going to lose some usage when sharing the floor with Harden instead of the 2nd unit, but it shouldn't go that badly. If Smith plays big minutes, he could be a part of winning tournament lineups.

CENTER

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10900 DK 11200
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 51.64 DK Proj. Pts - 52.26
Oh, baby, am I doing to try hard to get both Davis and Cousins in my lineups tonight. Cousins will be something like a 100% play in double-ups and 50/50s tonight, considering he just completely abused the Nuggets for 37/20 just 4 days ago. Do you need to know much more, here? It's hard to imagine how Boogie could be overpriced in this match-up. I like Davis better on a points per dollar basis, but might wind up needing to go cheap elsewhere to get Cousins in, too. I haven't run any optimal lineups today yet, but this would be a great day to get access to the projection system so you could figure out what cheap players to slide alongside them that I didn't think to list in the general picks.

Nikola Vucevic - FD 8300 DK 7400
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 38.87 DK Proj. Pts - 39.39
If you simply can't afford Cousins, Vucevic makes for a worthy consolation prize. And, heck, he's cheap enough on DraftKings that I might wind up playing he and Cousins together. Jahlil Okafor is a well documented Matador in the post, and the numbers back it up - the 76ers have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. Vucevic, for his part, has been on a fantastic run, averaging better than 5x points per dollar in his last 4 games. A very interesting tournament play at the very least.

So yeah, basketball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our NBA eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy NBA lineup. It's free, below.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM!

GET OUR FREE EBOOK ON DAILY FANTASY NBA!

And Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings every day!