The crowd cheers after Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) scored during the first half of Game 2 in a second-round NBA playoff basketball series against the Memphis Grizzlies, Tuesday, May 5, 2015, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
I'm writing this post while my wife drives us a couple of states down the East Coast. Saying I had to "work" was a nice way to pass the couple of hours and gave us both what we wanted. I got to deep dive some NBA while she listened to an assortment of alternative rock from the late 90's. Win win. Let's get to it.
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Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 28.42 DK Proj. Pts - 29.84
Like Deng below, Dragic is only really a consideration for me if D. Wade sits again. We've seen what happens to the Heat with Bosh and Wade off of the court. They've crushed both games thanks in large part to what Goran's done on the court when he's the primary usage guy. He's getting up about 70% more shots than his season average which is nuts. And one of those games only had him playing 20 minutes because of the blowout. His price has climbed for sure which can give you a little pause, but if he's the man in Miami then it isn't close to his true value.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 32.64 DK Proj. Pts - 33.87
There isn't an early line on this game, I assume, because of Kyrie Irving's status. There's some chance Cleveland could just blitz the Pistons, but if they hang then you can play Jackson at these prices. We had him as a top play against the Pelicans yesterday and he delivered with a 34/4/4 line that more than paid the day. Cleveland is a good defensive team but has been about average against opposing point guards this season. Jackson's prices are depressed somewhat because of a couple poor games and a last second DNP right before the All-Star Break. I think you are buying low on his skillset in this one.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 47.56 DK Proj. Pts - 51.42
I just wouldn't be doing my job if we got out of this picks writeup without a Steph mention. It's funny, he isn't a guy we highlight a ton for a bunch of different reasons. He rarely projects as high as some of the other guys in his price tier (Russell, Lebron, etc) but this slate is weird and he's playing in the biggest total game. His points/$ projection doesn't blow me away, but there also isn't a ton of ways to get a lot of money in big and good on this slate. There are lower/ mid tier guys you can get away with now to save and that says nothing of a punt play or two showing up closer to game time. What I'm saying is that you may end up playing Steph just because of circumstance, all other considerations aside.
Strongly consider Chris Paul if you think there's any chance Phoenix can hang.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 27.75 DK Proj. Pts - 30.42
While Austin Rivers is out (great news for the Clippers, bad for Austin) Jamal has taken over much of running the second unit. And from a fantasy perspective he's been tremendous. He's putting up around 18 shots per game over his last five and averaging around a 22/4/3 in that time. Sure the price has climbed, but not in line with his new-ish found opportunity. Sure, the Clips could boat race the Suns in this one which is the only think scaring me off some of these Clips plays. Otherwise, Crawford makes a nice play at shooting guard where I think some of the bigger names are a bit overpriced.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 20.25 DK Proj. Pts - 23.17
Vegas doesn't have this game getting totally out of hand with the Warriors only seven point favorites in a game with a projected total at 224. That's by far the highest on the slate and Korver's been playing significant minutes in the lower to mid-30's. It's mostly the opportunity at this price I'm interested in especially if the Hawks are forced to get into a shoot out with the Warriors (which I very much expect). He could see double digit shot attempts at least. Klay is a bad matchup for any shooting guard, but I think Korver is a fine place to get some exposure to this game on the cheap.
If D Wade sits again you can for sure take a stab at Gerald Green, inconsistency and all
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 25.68 DK Proj. Pts - 26.98
Deng is a much more attractive play if Dwyane Wade were to sit again. Right now the latter is a game time decision (where Wade seems to have spent most of the last couple of seasons). In the last two games without Wade out Deng's put up superstar numbers against the Wiz and Hawks. He's averaged a 29/11 in that time and been just amazing at these prices. Indiana is a real bad matchup for small forwards, really one of the worst in the league. That's the only thing even hurting Deng's value a little. But if Wade were to sit again then I'd see Deng as pretty much a must start in cash games from an opportunity and chalk perspective.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 33.66 DK Proj. Pts - 34.85
Just when I get comfortable with Alphabet's minutes Jason Kidd finds a way to go ahead and ruin my night. But it's hard to argue with what Giannis has been up to lately and it makes sense why he's seen such consistent minutes in the mid-to-high 30's. He fouled out right at the end of the fourth quarter against the Hawks the other night, losing two OTs (much to his owners' chagrin) but it at least gives us an idea about the minutes. Over his last four he's averaged about 36 fantasy points and tonight gets a Laker team getting blitzed by just about everyone, small forwards included.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 21.48 DK Proj. Pts - 22.98
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 19.03 DK Proj. Pts - 20.16
I have both of these guys on here because our system is a fan of both at their prices in this matchup against the Hawks. It's a little tough to stomach, but I understand the points/$ value on them if both are playing around thirty minutes. This is going to be a high-scoring game with a ton of shot volume. They kind of fit into the Korver mold for me as ways to get some cheap exposure to the projected total.
Strongly consider Lebron James of course if you find enough saving elsewhere. He looks even better were Kyrie to sit again.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.22 DK Proj. Pts - 29.23
We were a little too bear-ish on his minutes leading into last game which ended up looking pretty bad. Now of course, no one would have penciled him in for 51 minutes, but he played more than forty again in regulation and was a stud. Parker ended up with a 28/13/2 line though admittedly he did play 25% more game than usual. That being said, if Jason Kidd keeps his run even somewhat close to his recent output then he's a must play against the Lakers on this slate. There will be a few very chalky plays and Parker is one of them.
After Jabari there's a big of a value logjam at power forward. I'm going to quickly run through some of the considerations with a positive and negative about each.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 31.28 DK Proj. Pts - 31.97
The good: Milwaukee's been an abject disaster against power forwards this season, allowing around 8% more scoring and 4% more rebounding than league average to the position.
The bad: Byron Scott cannot be trusted when it comes to giving players consistent minutes or even keeping his starters from a game-to-game basis.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 35.38 DK Proj. Pts - 37.9
The good: If Kyrie were to sit again I'd like Love for an uptick in usage. Even with Uncle Drew on the court, Love's seen a different role now that Blatt is gone.
The bad: The production hasn't been all that consistent thanks to some blowouts, a little injury and some crunch time playing time issues.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 29.38 DK Proj. Pts - 30.93
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 31.6 DK Proj. Pts - 32.64
The good: Both have as high a ceilings as anyone in their respective price tiers.
The bad: The coaches don't play them enough consistent minutes to be anywhere close to safe.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 35.94 DK Proj. Pts - 36.57
Oof, Horford again. If you read us over baseball season then you'll understand why I'm beginning to think Horford is creeping toward the Jhonny Peralta territory. A guy our system loves that doesn't always feel right. Big Al was bailed out some last game because of the double overtime game giving him a bunch of extra minutes. But know this: Golden State has allowed production to opposing centers this season and could be without Andrew Bogut again. GSW allows about 4% more scoring and rebounding to the position and like I've already said, this one will be high-scoring. If it turns into a blowout Horford could buzz you. But I actually don't mind playing him at these prices.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 42.19 DK Proj. Pts - 42.93
Things are pretty close in our system between Andre Drummond and KAT with a slight points/$ edge going Dre's way but the raw points in Towns' favor. I'm tempted to roll Towns for a few extra bucks because the matchup is better on paper and it just feels a little safer. Sam Mitchell is running Towns out there for major minutes and the rookie big man's been able to put up some monsters in the short term. Boston is just a tick below average against centers this season and this game has the second highest total on the day after Warriors-Hawks.
Strongly consider the aforementioned Andre Drummond especially in tournaments.
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View Comments
Before I even read the picks for tomorrows slate, I just wanted to give a shout out to all of the guys who do these write-ups everyday. I've seen a lot of the sites that try to give picks with no info really behind it and why, but you guys give solid info behind your picks and they pay off more times then not. I read them everyday to cross reference my own research. Appreciate your time!
I agree with the guy above. I haven't hit it big yet but it is nice to know some added info about lower tier players.
Hi mamma didn't name him Andrew.
Ha thanks for the catch! I fixed
On a less critical note, I love your write ups. No love for TT?
I don't mind him, but I like the guys I listed above more for the money
Doug/James (and everyone else), thoughts on Dennis Schroder tonight? Fast paced game, he's been outplaying Teague of late, he should see time against the Dubs' second string...lining up to be an interesting play, I think.
I put it in the updates article about Schroder. Teague seems like he is a go which drastically reduces Dennis' playing time expectation.
I think this will be the first game I don't take dragic in tournament just because pacers are slow paced. Instead ill happily take all the Bucks players except the center position against a lousy lakers. Tonight I really like center I think Len whiteside and Jordan are must starts each but on DK I'll probably take Len and Jordan as I think Paul will have his worst game in forever. That's my two cents
I disagree with this a little. According to Hollinger's PACE stats, Indiana plays the 9th fastest in the league this season.
By the way thank you James for the Brow must play recommendation I always take a few of your picks and work my lineup. I made it big in the tournament as he was only 5% owned
Sadly I removed jokic two minutes before lock for pachulia I was devastated but still made a good amount. James what do you think about whiteside and Jordan and who are benefiting most if kyrie/ Paul sat. I'm guessing Crawford redick together
Yeah, Brow made the afternoon slate an enjoyable and profitable one. So glad I put him in the picture!
Sometimes you have to look at the system and the real match up. Brandon Bass was basically free at 3700 yesterday and scored 27.9 Fantasy points. Blow out points plus he has been getting more burn. Today I'm just really afraid of Reggie Jackson and any Morris twin!
Thoughts on Lavine, monta, Paul, Crawford. All look enticing for the guard slot.
Dont love lavine since bradley covering him. Paul is tough w salary and little dinged up in what may be a blowout