Dallas Mavericks' Deron Williams prepares to make a pass as Utah Jazz's Raul Neto (25) of Brazil defends during an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, Feb. 9, 2016, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
What a packed Sunday of NBA. Two slates and plenty of action to cure those post-NFL blues. Let's not waste any time with my typical witty and hilarious banter. It's a big ole Sunday of b-ball.
It's so big in fact, and so evenly split that I went ahead and wrote up the early slate and the late slate separately. No need to pat me on the back. I already did plenty of that myself already. Check out the early slate of picks here.
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Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 30.98 DK Proj. Pts - 33.09
Our system really liked him going into the game against the Mavericks even though I found it a little too tough to stomach considering the size of the slate. Well, sometimes it's that black box theory going on because Williams was a star putting up a 25/7/4 line that completely crushed his price tag. I'm not penciling him in for that kind of game again, but this is a solid matchup against a Philly team ranked in the bottom third of the league in overall defense. Williams is a little more scoring dependent than I like to see in my point guards, but the matchup and price are almost too good to pass up here.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 34.17 DK Proj. Pts - 35.97
Without Marc Gasol, Courtney Lee and Jeff Green for the Grizz because of injury/trade/trade, we got to see how they might start running those minutes and rotations. Conley got a boost in run, going 38 minutes against Minnesota and putting up a 25/7/4 line. If this is going to be how Memphis rolls in close games then he's still a value. The big story for him was the shot volume, putting up 19 (third most for him this season). If this continues then he's going to be a mid $7K PG in no time. The Grizzlies are just a totally different team now and Conley's role has changed. We need to take advantage.
Strongly consider Derrick Rose against the Lakers
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 27.07 DK Proj. Pts - 29.91
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 32.56 DK Proj. Pts - 34.07
I still don't totally trust the situation in Orlando right now. That's partly because Scott Skiles coaches the team much like a finicky rec-league coach who will mess with the kids because "he's the boss". That kind of terrible coaching means you will be left with some games in which your guy rode pine because he was in the doghouse or something equally ridiculous. Combine this with some new additions like Jennings and Ilyasova. Now you have a lot of guesswork. Both Dipo and Fournier played regulation minutes in the higher thirties last game and both ran in OT. That's a good sign. Oladipo was great throughout while Fournier needed every little minute to hit value. It also somewhat depends on who Paul George covers here. What I'm trying to say is that while our system likes both of these guys a lot, there's some uncertainty even with the minutes coming both their ways.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 33.29 DK Proj. Pts - 35.41
You can put him on the long list of guys I've never played on the right night. Or at least it feels like that and the list feels long. Such is the struggle with DFS. Batum is a minutes glutton for the Hornets and here's to hoping that his impending shift to the three with the arrival of Courtney Lee only adds to his fantasy value. He's been a high floor guy in the past because of his ability to live in different areas of the stat sheet. But he's seen variable performance this season especially when the shot isn't getting up/isn't falling. Because there aren't a ton of expensive plays on this slate (I'll get to that idea in the next position) you'll have to roster some upper middle tier values like Batum.
Strongly consider E'Twaun Moore
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 38.38 DK Proj. Pts - 40.75
This is an interesting slate. I don't love a lot of the higher-priced guys going and really most of the true salary guys are on the early slate. On FanDuel there isn't a player over 10K which is rare considering it's a six game slate. That means we are going to roster some guys whose pts/$ are a bit lower in an effort to grab raw points. George is an example of this. It helps that small forward is an quasi-abomination on this slate. There are very few even respectable plays at the position. George hasn't been spectacular of late, but I doubt he totally sinks you either. He'll get his scoring and chips in enough around the margins to keep his floor high enough to play in cash games. Could he catch fire from three? Maybe, but I'm not counting on it. Instead I'm looking a solid play at a weak position and we are going to need to spend the money somewhere.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 22.45 DK Proj. Pts - 24.21
I've been burned by the guy in the not-to-distant past because of minutes' speculation. So I think you can take his last game of 30+ with just a little grain of salt. But Barnes is a guy who figures into the Memphis rotations especially if they are going small with him at the four and Z-bo at the five. Not sure they run that against a Toronto team that does have some bigger bodies so I'm just a little hesitant to call him a cash game play. If he saw minutes near 30 though he'd be one of the best values on the slate.
Consider Gordon Hayward for many of the same reasons as Paul George.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 32.84 DK Proj. Pts - 33.44
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.5 DK Proj. Pts - 23.9
Z-Bo came out like lightening (metaphorically of course, he's slow as hell) last game and was a big start across the industry. But he sputtered in the second half and finished well under value. I'm willing to go back to the well on him though considering the state of the Grizz. He still saw mid 30's minutes and put up 14 shots. The rebounds didn't came as projected but he's still in line for significant run because of the Gasol injury. I like going back to him especially after so many folks were burned by his performance.
Meanwhile JaMychal Green drew the start for the second straight game and this time capitalized on 30 minutes of run with a 9/11/2/3/3 line. Now don't expect to get 12 points worth of defensive stats every time out. His overall fantasy production is a little inflated because of those numbers. But if Memphis trusts him for these minutes then his price is simply too low.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 34.94 DK Proj. Pts - 36.28
Minutes in the high 30's at these prices and you are good to go on Thad. Like I said the other day, Thad is a fun guy to watch from a fantasy perspective even if he's just kind of a guy in terms of the real NBA. But those minutes and his ability to both get to the rim, score and rebound (while also venturing out into the open court from time to time) makes him an interesting fantasy option most nights. The Nets are obviously a total mess, but his minutes are close to locked in and he's a decent player/ bad team type of dude.
Consider Julius Randle
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 32.58 DK Proj. Pts - 33.21
For a little while on Wednesday Zaza was spitting out into our system's optimal lineup. But then things got jockeyed around with news and he simply became a "good system play". I wish nothing had changed. Dude was awesome against Orlando (gifted some with an OT) throwing up an 11/19 line and crushing his projection. He's far and away the best center value on this slate and I'm hesitant to write anyone else up for fear you play that person instead of Zaza. Philly's been torched by opposing centers this season allowing about 5% more scoring and 4% more rebounding than league average to the position. Zaza's minutes are trending in the right and the only concern here is a blowout.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 39.63 DK Proj. Pts - 40.16
I really don't think I'm getting away from Zaza in this one, but on DraftKings Vuce isn't too far behind the Dallas center. On FanDuel it isn't close, but the price savings you get on Vuce over at DK makes him interesting. Scott Skiles is comfortable now playing him bigger minutes and dude's been a scoring/rebounding machine. He's averaging a 20/13 over his last three and Indiana's well below average in keeping opposing centers off the glass. Again, I much perfer Zaza but Vuce is worth a look in a couple of spots.
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View Comments
I have lebron over the brow just so i can watch 1 of my players this afternoon. Is this a terrible move?
Think lebron is safer than the brow. LeBron has been a better player since blatt got fired
SERIOUSLY??? Great advice...im on day 2 of my free trial n havent won yet. Was on a streak of 7 nights in a row winning $.
Any news on Deron Williams?
Is D. Williams a go ?
I can't find anything definitive on Deron Williams, so instead of gambling on it, I'm playing George Hill, who seems to be a solid option going up against a not so great Orl defense.
D will is a go
Awesome! Thanks. Gonna put D-Will back in, in that case.
Playing Barea as a gut feel in a couple of lineups. Deron with some injuries, Philly...maybe early exit for Deron for one reason or another.