Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/20/16

Happy Saturday! I have a little post traumatic stress thing going from trying to figure out how the trade deadline was going to impact last night's games, but thankfully there isn't quite as much to worry about today. After a 14 game Friday, we get a nice 4 gamer to catch our breath. You ready? Let's get it on.

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POINT GUARD

Chris Paul - FD 10000 DK 9400
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 46.15 DK Proj. Pts - 48.08
The battle of the high priced point guards ought to be an intense one today, and it should give us a sense as to whether the Clips actually miss Blake Griffin or what. They've played the Dubs tough in their two meetings this year, which is a lot more than most can say, and a lot of that has been due to the efforts of CP3. Golden State has been a league average match-up for point guards, but this is a special case since Paul will A) have a chance to stay in the game and B) will have something to prove, as always, against Curry. This isn't to say I mind Steph today - he's also a good play. It's just that Paul is cheaper, and his team has so few other options. Paul still leads the NBA in time of possession in 2016 (thanks, SportVU data), and his floor just seems higher.

Goran Dragic - FD 5600 DK 5700
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.89 DK Proj. Pts - 29.44
This one comes with a little bit of an asterisk. Dragic flies up this list as a clear must play if Dwyane Wade misses another game - he's had the ball in his hands for the whole first half as of this writing, and has coming up on 20 fantasy points during that time. That's good for a half on a $5,600 player, in case you weren't aware. If Wade is back it gets a little trickier, but I still think he's a very good play. Bosh's absence frees up a lot of shots, and Dragic has been pretty public about wanting the ball in his hands a little bit more. Washington's an above average match-up- they've allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season - so I think Dragic is a nice high floor play with upside to boot.

The battle for third here is tough.
Ricky Rubio is kind of tempting, but after a total disappearing act in the first half of Friday's game some will be dissuaded. I personally like him best of the next group, though the projection system is bullish on Jeff Teague. I don't mind either guy - I'll go Chris Paul over Steph Curry though I imagine I'll be on a big time fade there.

SHOOTING GUARD

Kyle Korver - FD 4100 DK 4200
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 20.67 DK Proj. Pts - 23.76
Not sure why the sites are taking so long to respond here, but Korver is basically back to being the Korver of last season. We're on 3 straight games of him paying 6x points per dollar on these prices while attempting 5 or more 3s (which might be 4 by the time his Friday game concludes), and on a short slate like this, that's safety to the max. The Bucks are basically a league average opponent for opposing shooting guards, so this is just a price and opportunity mismatch situation.

Jamal Crawford - FD 5100 DK 5200
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 26.84 DK Proj. Pts - 29.28
J.J. Redick - FD 4900 DK 4900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 24.4 DK Proj. Pts - 27.45
If the Clips are going to hang here, it's going to have to be at least in part thanks to the shooting of these two. They're both very cheap compared to the 35+ minutes a game they've been playing recently, and again, Golden State plays the 2nd fastest PACE in the league. Jeff Green might cut into their minutes to some degree, but it's hard to imagine his presence cutting either out of the rotation too much. Still, if you're spooked by the blowout here, I get it. On a short slate, though, it's going to be tough to get away from the best plays just because of some blowout risk.

Gerald Green remains a tantalizing option, even after a pretty uninspiring showing on Friday (at least through half time). Still, if D-Wade is out, there are a lot of minutes for him here.
 

SMALL FORWARD

Luol Deng - FD 4800 DK 5000
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 24.38 DK Proj. Pts - 25.88
Justise Winslow - FD 4000 DK 4300
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 21.64 DK Proj. Pts - 23.27
Both Heat small forwards saw big gains in Bosh's absence on Friday, and it stands to reason that trend will continue in an even better match-up on Saturday. The Wiz have allowed the very most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, and their fast pace raises the floor of opponents at any position. This recommendation goes triple if Wade sits again, but I like them in either case. They should both be priced at least 15% higher given their current roles on the team. Great value plays.

Carmelo Anthony - FD 9100 DK 8600
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 41.04 DK Proj. Pts - 43.06
A very nice spendy option right now. Kurt Rambis seems intent on playing Melo until he falls apart, as evidenced by Melo's increased minutes even as the Knicks' season is over and the fact that Rambis has claimed that Melo will play every single game until the season is over. At a position with a lot of question marks today, he's easily one of the safest options. Fresh off of putting up a 22/7/6/3/1 (love the hustle stats!) against the Nets, I like him against the Wolves here as well.

Also considered: Harrison Barnes. He's been solid from a fantasy perspective recently, and has played 31+ minutes in 6 straight games. Playing that many minutes on a fast paced pass-happy Dubs team almost necessarily means you're worth more than $4,500 on FanDuel. Don't mind him in any format.

POWER FORWARD

Kristaps Porzingis - FD 6800 DK 7300
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 36.61 DK Proj. Pts - 37.83
I could basically repeat Melo's write-up here, but the Zinger's case is slightly different I guess. One of the biggest criticisms of Derek Fisher's tenure with the Knicks was his erratic behavior with their prize rookie. Do you have any doubt that Rambis is going to try and dodge the same critcism? So far, so good. Porzingis is on a steady 35 minute rotation right now, and with him, the points per minute production has never been in doubt. He's been a fantasy point per minute guy since the first time he stepped on the court this year, as evidenced by his 28 minutes per game and 28 fantasy points per game. Now that he's playing 35? I trust you can do the math. Just play the guy.

Gorgui Dieng - FD 6500 DK 6700
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 32.52 DK Proj. Pts - 33.04
Speaking of price and opportunity mismatches, has there ever been a slower price adjustment than Gorgui Dieng's? He's been playing 37+ minutes per game for 3 weeks, and has paid 5x points per dollar on this price in 6 of his last 8 games. The slow paced Knicks are a below league average match-up, but Dieng is a $7,000 player, so it doesn't really matter. Especially on this tiny slate.

Draymond Green - FD 8400 DK 9000
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 37.56 DK Proj. Pts - 39.64
Green's price has fallen just enough to make him affordable (on FanDuel at least), and this really couldn't look like a better match-up. With no Blake, it's hard to imagine who is even going to try and cover him here. DeAndre can't track him on the perimeter (or on the high screen for that matter), and this has the makings of a triple-double style game for him. Paul Pierce, Jeff Green, Wesley Johnson - Draymond is going to just torture whoever draws him here. I like him in any format.

Also considered: Josh McRoberts. Did you see that line from last night? My God. If the Heat are intent on keeping Stoudemire on a minutes cap, McBob could be a completely ridiculous value until his price climbs.

CENTER

Karl-Anthony Towns - FD 9000 DK 8500
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 40.41 DK Proj. Pts - 41.14
Center is a little wonky on short slates, which is why I'm feeling pretty grateful to see Karl-Anthony Towns' name. The Rookie of the Year favorite has earned every penny of this price, thanks to a ridiculous stretch where he's paid 5x or better in 6 of his last 9 games, and paid a minimum of 32 points in each of those. A mortal lock for a double double and a block each night, he's one of the highest floor guys on any given night. The Knicks are basically a league average match-up, but there's more to like here. Robin Lopez's lack of offensive game means he's very unlikely to get in foul trouble, and the Knicks' fewest drives per game in the league only bolsters that case. Very high floor option for 50/50s.

Al Horford - FD 7200 DK 6600
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 35.48 DK Proj. Pts - 36.09
A sneakier upside play, Horford rates to be something of a forgotten man on today's slate. But on DraftKings in particular he's very cheap for what he can do out there. The Hawks have shown a willingness to stretch his minutes when things are going right, and against a soft Greg Monroe, there's a better than likely chance that things will go right for him here. I don't think I love his safety for a 50/50 contest, but he's an off-beat play even on a small slate that could go very right for you.

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