Miami Heats Hassan Whiteside, right, defends against Atlanta Hawks Kent Bazemore in the first quarter of an NBA basketball game Monday, Dec. 14, 2015, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Welcome to the daily updates and injury news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock tonight.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
Now let’s look at some news that’s come in throughout the day to see if anything’s changed in our minds or in the NBA landscape.
He was a late scratch (thanks for nothing, Pop) last night, and Kyle Anderson got a good amount of run. Still, the minutes in that game were all over the place for everyone. Anderson is more of an interesting tourney play than a double-up guy for me, just because he's simply not very good. This news is also significant for LaMarcus Aldridge, who gets a 10%+ usage bump when Kawhi's not on the floor. His usage also soars to 33%+ when both Duncan and Leonard are off the floor, which will inevitably happen in this one.
With Whiteside AND Bosh out, it's sort of unclear how the Heat are going to handle things. My gut tells me they are going to play Deng and Winslow more, and that they play Stoudemire as much or more than they have all season. The Hawks are basically a league average match-up for each of these guys, and each has plenty of value at current prices.
EDIT: Casey, a member of our DFSR community, points out that the ATL bigs could eat the piecemeal Miami bigs for lunch. I tend to agree - Stoudemire isn't a true 5, and Horford certainly is. Millsap will be a very tough match-up for Deng as well. It should be a slow paced game, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a big game out of either of those guys.
Basically just means that whole collection of guys (Tolliver, Harris, probably Stanley Johnson) are a stay-away until we see how this plays out in at least 1 close game.
Two mouth related absences on the same day? Only the Kings. Neither have been especially relevant for daily fantasy purposes, but this is 43 minutes of playing time to go around. It could mean more Rudy Gay, and it should mean a significant amount of Darren Collison at combo guard. If Collison starts at the 2 (potentially unlikely), he could be a phenomenal play.
This is quietly a big deal. Both of these guys have filled it up out of the starting role in the past, and both remain cheap. There's a lot going on tonight, and you could likely sneak one of these guys in under the radar in a big tournament.
What's going to happen in Memphis
No Courtney Lee, no Jeff Green, no Marc Gasol. Yikes. We'll see a ton of Zach Randolph here, and I'd guess a lot of Matt Barnes too. I'll be paying close attention to who's starting here, since we've seen good performances out of guys like Matt Barnes in increased minutes in the past. JaMychal Green was good in 21 minutes the last go around (and could have played more had the game not gotten out of hand), but the Grizz have also said that Brandan Wright will be available tonight. He's actually the most interesting long term guy - he's put up numbers in limited minutes in the past (albeit for other teams) - but tonight's he's far too risky for me.
Kevin Martin was conspicuously upgraded to "probable" at around 2 PM EST. In the last game he played, LaVine played just 19 minutes. If he's out, you can deploy LaVine as usual, but if he plays, I'd be a lot more cautious on such a big slate.
How guys like Markieff Morris, Brandon Jennings, Ersan Ilyasova, and Channing Frye are going to fit into their new teams. Morris figures to have big upside, as does Jennings (just because his price is so low), but I'll pass on the whole group for 50/50s and double-ups.
Note - this doesn't mean I'll actually play each of these guys in every lineup, it just means they are the foundational pieces spit out by our optimizer in all of the top 5-10 lineups. Obviously, you'll want to go against the chalk plays in big tournaments.
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 52.94 DK Proj. Pts - 53.58
Lots of cheap options elsewhere, a good match-up, and he'll be well rested (allaying some of the fatigue concerns people had before the ASB).
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 29.5 DK Proj. Pts - 30.73
Mudiay has paid 5x+ points per dollar on these prices in 3 of his last 4 games, and even though his price has continued to climb a bit, he remains an excellent value. Sacramento has allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, which is a fundamental driver of his showing up everywhere.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 26.77 DK Proj. Pts - 29.52
The system assumes he's going to play 32-34 minutes, and if he does, he's underpriced compared to what his per-minute production is. I'd imagine he'd be a play almost regardless of match-up, here, unless it was a big blowout risk game. The Pelicans aren't that.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below - on us!
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View Comments
Guy named Jeff asked a question about affiliation w roto ql . I asked roto ql why I can't use my subscription thru here with their optimizer and never got a straight answer. They want $20 plus whatever they charge for optimizer . What's the scoop with that ?
Dude,I'll give you an optmizer if you want...free. 20.00! For excel solver...really?
Hey Dan - the $20 lets you use our projections with their tools.
For what it's worth, we are rolling out our own optimizer suite next week.
optimizer suite going be available for members to use with other tools?
Think I am going to stay from the Pistons and Magic until I see what the new rotations look like. You don't trade for İlyasova and Harris and then not play those guys so minutes/shots are coming at someones expense. Seems like the Magic might send Evan Fournier back to the bench and move Gordon to small forward and then start İlyasova at power forward. An no clue what is going on in Detroit. Pope back and Harris and Motiejunas in the mix who knows..
Same here, Thomas. I suspect Ilyasova will get Frye's minutes (and some of Harris'), and that Harris plays a bunch in Detroit. Tolliver is pretty awful. But we still don't know what the "new normal" prices should be for these guys. I'll pass.
I have a feeling that one of the two ATL post studs is going to eat the lunch of MIA's piecemeal front court tonight. Going with Horford in a couple of lineups, but interested if you all think Millsap would be the guy to target.
Great call, Casey. Deng and Winslow are good defenders, but undersized to try and defend either of the ATL bigs. Same with Stoudemire, too, really. I like either of those guys, and I'm going to update and put your thoughts (credited to you) in the article!
In one of my lineups I'm determined to go with the Gordon, Vucevic pairing in the front court. I see you guys aren't as enthusiastic about these two tonight. Am I plum loco here?
I don't think you're crazy (especially on Vucevic), but Gordon wouldn't have to lose many minutes to Ilyasova to become a very risky play. Heck, the price increase already makes him fairly risky. I'm going to pass tonight, especially given how big the slate is. Just don't need to bother with these guys in double-ups.
Does the Heat/Hawks game depend on Wade? If Wade, Bosh and Whiteside sits that's got blowout written all over it, right? Hawks 8.5 fave before we find out about Wade.
Huge blowout problems then, yes.
Cool James !?
Using my tips will cost you, James! :) I accept sandwiches (premium cold cuts only) and/or beer(s)...
You guys have by far and away the best Daily Fantasy Basketball blog and advice that I have found on the whole Interwebs. It's really helped me learn the tricks of the trade and how lineups are affected by opportunity, and has helped me develop my own style of playing. Read it every day!
Really appreciate the kind words, Casey! It's the whole reason we started our site years ago - lack of good info and discussion. The space is a lot better than it used to be, but we're working hard to try and put out the best stuff daily!
Hey james thoughts on narrative street tonight with jrue and ish?
Both are good high floor options, per our system, but the prices are weird for what you can get at similar numbers at other positions. Like, I'd rather play Z-Bo for $6600 than either of those guys, if I'm looking for safety. Still, both are fine plays without considering any narrative, so if you think the narrative makes a difference, they could be great plays.
Tough decision regarding the big money guys. Harden should destroy phoenix. Boogie is in a great spot against the Denver front court. Curry, Westbrook, Brow - decisions decisions. Since Marco B and Omri C are both questionable for dental work I absolutely love Batum here. I am leaning towards Mudiay and not really considering Archie with Rodney Price questionable to return. I think the half hour before lineup lock is going to be crazy today. I got pop'd yesterday with Leonard after he got kicked in the shin in practice. I hate playing spur players!
Like your analysis, Will. As things are developing, I'm looking at a lot of Boog and Brow. Davis' minutes got punked in 3 weird games, but he should get them against the Sixers. Very underpriced at 36 mins+, and is now showing up in optimal lineups.