Sacramento Kings' DeMarcus Cousins (15) drives the ball past Houston Rockets' Joey Dorsey in the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, April 1, 2015, in Houston. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)
It's the first big slate coming off the All-Star Break and it just happens to coincide with the day after the trade deadline. Thankfully (from a prognostication standpoint) there wasn't too much movement yesterday. Most teams stood pat in the places it mattered making for a relatively seamless move into this Friday slate. Are there some questions out there? For sure. But this is nothing like last season. Thank the basketball gods.
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Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 50.29 DK Proj. Pts - 52.07
I'm putting him up at the top not because he's the best big money points/$ player in our system, but because he's Russell. And he's the toughest guy, on a nightly basis, to fade. It's so damn scary to think about. I'm not calling him a must play; there are plenty of solid (cheaper) options at this position tonight. But few players in the NBA can realistically hit or exceed value at these prices. Westbrook is one of them. If the game is close and he sees minutes in the mid-to-upper 30's then watch out because he can be a triple-double waiting to happen.
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 29.5 DK Proj. Pts - 30.73
Like I said, there are a few mid-tier guys to target today if you are thinking about gritting your teeth and fading Mr. Westbrook. Mudiay is one of them. He's run the point well enough for the Nuggets in the short term and should continue tonight in a great matchup against the Kings. Mudiay's last four games have seen him average a 15/7/4 while limiting the turnovers. That's a great sign for the rookie and tonight he'll face a Kings team playing at the fastest pace in the league while also ranking 25th overall in defensive efficiency. I suppose a Jameer Nelson return could cut into Mudiay's minutes a bit but I'm not too worried about it.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 32.98 DK Proj. Pts - 34.26
This is an interesting spot for Jackson. The situation would seem to dictate he sees a slight minutes bump at least in the short term. The Pistons shipped away their backup point guard in Brandon Jennings, leaving only Steve Blake to back up Jackson. But SVG is strict with the minutes here and it's not totally clear how this shakes out. What I do like is Reggie playing an up and down team like Washington who've allowed more than average scoring to opposing point guards this season. I'm thinking Jackson is safe for cash games, though I would understand if you were still hesitant on him.
Strongly consider Archie Goodwin and Deron Williams
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 34.28 DK Proj. Pts - 35.78
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.07 DK Proj. Pts - 29.71
It's a little tough to know how the addition of Ersan Ilyasova (to replace Tobias Harris) and Brandon Jennings will effect the minutes on Fournier and Dipo. I suspect it cuts in some, though not a ton. I trust Oladipo's run a bit more than Fournier's simply because the latter could be the guy who gets a minutes reduction. But both of these guys were just playing a ton leading into the All-Star break and that could continue. Both are well worth it for the price if they are going to push up or even exceed forty minutes a game. But again, there's some uncertainty around the Magic right now in how the new pieces fit.
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 26.72 DK Proj. Pts - 27.92
Sam Mitchell (partly because he's clueless) has said the T-Wolves plan to rotate Lavine and Prince through the starting lineup for the rest of the season. You know, like good teams do. Lavine is only in play if he's running with the starters and stands to see starters' minutes. Last game before the ASB he started and turned in a 13/4/5 line that paid off. He's a better deal on FanDuel and though this game is against Memphis, remember they are a very different team now without the big man in the middle.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 35.15 DK Proj. Pts - 37.54
It looks like Batum will move permanently to the three with the loss of MKG for the year and the addition of Courtney Lee to the Hornets. This is Batum's more natural position and we'll see how it effects his fantasy game though I suspect he continues delivering at high levels. They've run him out there for upwards of forty minutes a game and his Swiss Army Knife style lends itself to high floors if the run is there. The Bucks allow about 10% more scoring than league average to opposing threes this season and are below average across the board against the position.
Consider Dwayne Wade. He sees a big usage bump with Bosh off the floor and another one with Whiteside out as well.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 26.77 DK Proj. Pts - 29.52
It's never easy trusting how the Sixers will deploy minutes on a given night and Covington is, at times, a victim of the rotation carousel going on in Philly. But he saw some more steady playing time before the break and I think that continues in this game. The Pelicans are one of the worst defensive teams in the league ranking 27th overall though they have been okay against small forwards. Regardless, this price on Bob C is sitting in the sweet spot on FanDuel (little expensive on DK). His fantasy value is heavily weighted on scoring and steals. This can lead to fluctuating lines, but the game flow of this one should line up with his style.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 24.52 DK Proj. Pts - 26.34
Minutes for miles with this guy. It's insane how much the Suns play him and just how little he can do even with a boat load of run. Our system likes his weighted mean projection, but I wouldn't blame you for looking somewhere else at small forward. That game log looks pretty grizzly and is just a little bit all over the place. There are some games in which he will almost totally disappear. And if you watch Suns games (which we do from time to time) it's frustrating to watch him stand in the corner going long stretches without ever seeing the ball. But Houston ranks in the bottom third defensively and in the top third for pace. That's a nice place to meet on the graph for a guy like Tucker.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 28.74 DK Proj. Pts - 32.28
Speaking of guys who see endless miles of run, Ariza is a dude the Rockets are happy to trot out there for as much time as needed. In some ways he's like Tucker in that he runs the risk of not hitting value even with tons of court time. Ariza is a bit scoring dependent and if the three isn't falling (or the looks aren't there) then you could be in trouble. This game though should be up and down the court with abandon as neither team cares too terribly much for defense.
Strongly consider Marcus Morris and Otto Porter matching up against each other.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 33.27 DK Proj. Pts - 33.88
The Grizz will be without Marc Gasol for some time leaving a bunch of big man minutes to Z-Bo and a couple of scrubs. In their first full game without their center Memphis blew out the Nets so it's still tough knowing exactly how they'll deploy rotations. But rest assured, Randolph will see his time in this one. The price ticked up some over the break, but not enough. If he's going to be out there for minutes in the mid-to-high thirties then a line something akin to 20/10/2 is totally in the cards. I'll have him all over cash games.
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 34.41 DK Proj. Pts - 35.7
Average player on a bad team can pay big dividends in DFS. Just look at someone like Thad. Is he a star? Ha, no. But the Nets have very little in the way of real talent, leaving a guy like Young to gobble up plenty of scoring and rebounding opportunities when he's on the court for extended periods of time. The Nets play him big minutes in closer games and Vegas doesn't project this game to get out of hand.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 46.16 DK Proj. Pts - 46.87
It's a weird thing with Davis. For some time his safety was entirely wrapped up in whether he'd have a strong gust of wind blow through the court knocking him out of the game. But leading into the break it wasn't the injuries as a concern, but instead the per game minutes taking a little dip. If you think those trend back up to the high 30's then he's a must start at these prices. But I don't trust anything Alvin Gentry does so he's just a speculative play at this point.
Strongly consider Kristaps Porzingis
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 52.94 DK Proj. Pts - 53.58
Does anyone else find themselves typing "Boogie" into a search field when trying to find this guy? I do it all the time and it's just one of the many frustrating things about a guy like Cousins. He's got talent for miles, but when you watch him it's like sitting on a bed of TNT. You are just waiting for him to have a meltdown. Sometimes you can see it coming with his over-aggressive style or when he convinces himself he's the point guard of the team (it also manifests in terrible, terrible fouls). But when he has it going there are few in the league better. I'm love him against a Denver team that struggles against both centers and power forwards alike. Though Cousins has seen a price climb, it's warranted. He's elite and there enough ways to save at the other positions.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 42.34 DK Proj. Pts - 43.11
The only reason I'm not in a "Boogie everywhere" mode on FD (a little different on DK where Cousins is a PF) is because Drummond could put up just as many points tonight for cheaper. Andre's a more volatile player in that the minutes will disappear sometimes. But Washington struggles in a big way keeping opposing centers off the glass which, as you know, is Drummond's speciality. Because the Wiz play such an uptempo game, the rebounding volume for Drummond should be there in droves as long as the minutes don't get buzzed.
Strongly consider Zaza Pachulia
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View Comments
Does Amari get any consideration as a cheap play with Bosh and Whiteside out?
Yes. He's high in the system. I considered writing him up actually.
no offense but why is Olidipo mentioned each day? Is he that valuable? I just dont see his value, although his price has dropped recently.
With Markieff gone from the Suns, Alex Len makes for an intersting choice. Do you see Len getting more of a run, or will those minutes be split between Leuer and Tele? Thanks!
I gave them slight minutes' bumps, but that situation is very difficult to trust.
you obviously made the mistake we ALL have made at one point...giving too much exposure to one player for your lineups. It has happened to all of us! You also probably dumped out a decent amount of $ for that slate as well....Experts will tell you on short slates thats huge no no....think about it...the odds of having the nights winning lineup are against you...limited options on the board so everyone has the same thing...play bigger slates so if you have one lineup flop who cares...and it's not rigged...theres just nights like that...i usually play as many lineups as there is games...i played 3 lineups last night in 2$ tourney...all different...only one paid...i live to play another day and i learned from that eves games and can apply it to tomorrows...tonight is 14 games..ill take the advice these guys give me and build build build....one will eventually hit....thanks guys keep up the good work!
I have nowhere else to post this so at least I know that people who care about this will see my post. That bullshit calf injury last night to Kawhi Leonard is a prime example of why DFS NBA is rigged. 58% of people played him in the tournament and he is scratched without notice? Think about it, 25K is a lot of money. I'm done with this shit.
Just curious how is it rigged? Just bc someone got hurt? The only reason to fade him last night would be to be a contrarion.
He didn't get hurt, and this isn't the first time this has happened. It's been a week since the NBA played and they knew how much money and people were playing last night. That was an obvious scratch to benefit themselves. How much money was lost by the players who invested the time and effort to put forth a lineup that would compete? That was a blatant setup by far! Tell me a NFL player would sit because he got kicked in the calf? LOL? Biggest scam ever just occurred last night and the lackeys will just sit there and say DUH.
Is your implication that the NBA rigged the contest to benefit certain DFS players or vice versa? And yes, I played Kawhi everywhere. Actually cashed on FantasyDraft, some DK and late FD with him in lineups. But it was frustrating for sure.
Doug I hear ya, but winning was still possible lastnight, I won with the inactive Leonard in my lineup. I had Rose, Irving, Hood, Crawford, James, Leonard, Thompson, Portis, and Gobert (50/50 double up) finished with a 264, not the most impressive number but slow dough better than no dough lol. Although had he played I would have been that much better off.
I'm not saying the NBA rigged the game last night, I'm saying that the Spurs rigged the system last night. If you don't think that they aren't playing and benefiting from this type of move then most of you are pretty naive. We all put in the time and effort to roster a lineup that would compete in a tournament format and then for a highly rostered player to mysteriously be scratched is a complete clue to the rigging of the system. And this isn't the first time this has happened with the Spurs either. Think about it. And please from now on with your advice (which I appreciate) anytime the Spurs play, please put an asterisk next to any players name stating that you should be warned about the rigging of NBA DFS. That was the most obvious scam in DFS history!
You guys make me lmfao with the AD stuff. A gust of wind blow in the stadium and knock him out for the game absolutely hilarious.
The who Leonard not playing last night is BS but I should have known better the Spurs love to screw over people in DFS, should have gone with Hayward and Wall like I originally planned. But it's not like Leonard totally let me down since he was 83% owned in 50/50 FD, but rather Aldridge and Duncan playing like bums
Lineup tonight
Lillard: Has played well against GSW in the past and has 50pt upside while being sub $10k
Rondo: Past 4 games registered 15 or more assist per game. Two 40pt and 50pt games.
Batum: Favorable match up against Bucks. Great ceiling of 40pts-50pts.
Booker: Houston bump. This kid continues to make 5X.
Tucker: Great value. KCP is back for Detroit so no more SJ. 25pts-3-pts+ isn't unreasonable.
Deng: No Bosh no Whiteside
Stoudemire: No Bosh no Whiteside
Randolph: No Gasol and without Marc Randolph has played well, also you could play Dieng here
Towns: As of recent playing like a star but at sub $10K. It seems he either does mid 30pts or does a 50pt game.
I just can't see 2 Miami players on a roster unless it's a 50/50. Pace is too slow for me. Amare yes in my lineups
Disagree a little especially if wade is out. Atlanta is horrible vs big men
Joe,
I just posted one of my gamble lineups for your viewing pleasure. I am going to use this lineup you provided in one of my FD quintuple up contests. I love it! Thank you
This one will pay nicely ;-)
PG Reggie Jackson DET $6,600
PG Rajon Rondo SAC $9,000
SG Bradley Beal WAS $6,300
SG Klay Thompson GS $6,800
SF CJ Miles IND $3,500
SF PJ Tucker PHX $4,800
PF Mirza Teletovic PHX $3,800
PF Draymond Green GS $8,400
C DeMarcus Cousins SAC $10,600
Rem/Player: $0 $59,800
This guy has to be joking......lol