Oklahoma City Thunder's Kevin Durant, right, and Russell Westbrook celebrate their team's 100-99 win against the Los Angeles Clippers in an NBA basketball game, Monday, Dec. 21, 2015, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Another Thursday, another short slate. I personally like them, but the margin for error can be thin. Other players will see some of the obvious values, so cashing can depend on just a few decisions. Tonight that’s amplified with just two games. The good news is that they both should be good from a fantasy perspective. The Wizards/Bucks game has a decent Over/Under and the line is virtually even. The NOP/OKC matchup has some blowout risk, but a huge O/U. Let’s get to identifying the values and the upside plays that could make for a successful night.
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Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 49.7 DK Proj. Pts - 51.54
Personally, I have a hard time not playing Russ every time he’s on the court. Finding a high-end option that consistently hits value is not easy. In his last 10 games, he’s failed to hit at least 4x exactly once, with outputs between 5x and 6x most nights. He’s even relatively immune to minutes risk. At this level of investment, that’s huge. The system projections seem depressed by blowout risk, and I think there’s upside here. No reason not to go back to the well.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 24.14 DK Proj. Pts - 25.41
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 33.09 DK Proj. Pts - 34.61
One place to begin saving a bit is right here. Tyreke Evans is now done for the foreseeable future, so Cole should be locked into starters’ minutes. Add in a fast Pace, plus the fact that OKC is merely average defending the PG position, and Cole looks like a safe play with definite upside. I’ll roll him out across the board on both FD and DK. Note: These picks were written during Pelicans' game in which Cole was buzzed off minutes. We've upgraded Jrue Holiday who starts looking better in system. Though the Pels are tough to trust when it comes to PG run.
For variation, particularly in tourney plays, Michael Carter-Williams (or even Jerryd Bayless if you want to punt and are willing to go to the bench) could be set to go off – The Wiz are 29th against PGs.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 31.82 DK Proj. Pts - 33.93
Did I mention the Washington defense? Not very good against wings either. On a night with limited options, Middleton offers a decent floor and quite a bit of upside. He’s the highest price point at the position, but this is a good place to invest.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 19.21 DK Proj. Pts - 20.69
In contrast to Middleton, Dion presents a great bargain opportunity. As the seemingly entrenched starter, he’s had a pretty solid floor near 4x, and his output regularly spikes. The prospect of the Pels 29th-rated D against the SG position isn’t particularly troubling either. I’ll have him across the board, cash and tourney.
While neither particularly cheap nor safe, Bradley Beal is an alternative to consider for tourneys.
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Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 43.28 DK Proj. Pts - 45.8
Much like his running mate, Durant generally represents a good place to park large sums of salary. The key to big investments is a high floor, and he epitomizes that. Even as his cost has crept back up ($1200 higher than 3 weeks ago on DK), he’s been absolutely going off. The potential for serious upside is there. I think this is another opportunity of the DFSR system keeping projections down due to blowout risk – if the Pels somehow keep it reasonably close, these projections would be quite conservative.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 31.23 DK Proj. Pts - 32.31
The Greek Freak is priced at a high-but-not-outrageous point. I don’t see an explosion in the making, but there’s a decent floor and some upside. A relatively safe play on a night with limited options, if you want to spend a little less or are nervous about a Durant/Westbrook stack (something to consider for tourney entries), this is a good place to go.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 22.72 DK Proj. Pts - 23.59
If you’re looking to spend a little less so you can do so elsewhere, Porter is a third, economically sensible option at SF. There’s nothing sexy here – he’s priced about where he should be. We aren’t expecting a 7x outburst like he had against Charlotte over the weekend. He’s also unlikely to sink your night, in part because Washington is terrible defending the 3-spot. If you need to make the numbers work to fill out your roster, keep him in mind.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 49.81 DK Proj. Pts - 50.56
The Glass Brow makes an appearance. In case you’re worried, there’s no indication that his bad night against the Jazz is due to injury. He just seems to have picked up some fouls, and had to contend with the Favors/Gobert tandem on the interior. OKC is pretty good in their own right defending bigs, but, as noted above, some fast action is expected in this game. That should lead to things we like – Pts, Reb, etc. The DFSR system is really high on AD tonight.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 22.44 DK Proj. Pts - 23.28
Much like Davis, Parker is projected for a very good multiple. While Gortat, Nene & Co are very stingy inside, Jabari comes at a low enough price point that he can help you fit in the bigger ticket items while maintaining solid value.
A consideration for tourney play is Serge Ibaka. He has an o.k. matchup, but is uber-volatile.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 31.92 DK Proj. Pts - 32.44
Marcin Gortat is the destination Center tonight. The Bucks are solid defending 5s, but Gortat is not very sensitive to matchups. He’s got an extremely strong floor, decent upside, and I think he’s underpriced a bit, especially on DK (where he actually ticked down after a not-terrible 4.5x outing). You need a Center, he’s a good option among few, and I’ll be running him across the board. So should you.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 22.05 DK Proj. Pts - 22.45
Purely because there are so many high-cost options elsewhere, I thought you should see that the system really likes Adams tonight. He’s projected for a very high multiple and comes dirt-cheap. Consider this a lineup-building option if you want to punt here.
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View Comments
I notice that neither, Bryce DeSean-Jones nor Dante Cunnigham were listed? I just think on a slate this small, guys like that have to be considered. Also, can someone help me understand how Jrue holiday doesn't get any consideration? I know he comes off the bench but his numbers lately have been eye-popping! Any comments would be appreciated...I like this site and use it often but I just gotta get a few other perspectives on it. Thx
Bryce 10 contract has expired and he wants a season deal. He is unlikely to play tonight. Cunningham has a horrible match up. On this short slate he could very well be a pung play. Jrue I'd playing great his minutes in a potential blowout makes him a risky play.
Hey Cameron. Thanks for checking in. Couple of answers to your questions. BJD and Cunningham aren't really in consideration because BJD simply doesn't see enough minutes (hasn't topped 20 in last three games) and Cunningham doesn't do enough on the court when he does see the minutes.
Holiday probably deserved a mention, though my issue there is that the minutes (and this actually applies to Cole as well) are so freaking variable. We wrote up picks during games last night and Cole was buzzed off minutes. So he's getting a downgrade. With Holiday, you are trusting he does a ton in <30 minutes. That's what our system sees. He's a tournament play for sure, but hard to trust that situation.
You wouldn't say wall is a better play than Westbrook in case of a blowout?
Nick;
In addition to my man-crush on Russ, Wall is more volatile generally. I can't stress enough how important a high floor is for high-priced players. Even a 3x can sink you when it's up to 10% of your total salary.
That said, Wall certainly qualifies as a contrarian/tourney option.
While I can't speak for Doug or James (the proprietors, and the other guys who write up these daily pcks) , when writing up picks, I'm generally thinking of cash games, and try to clarify when a pick or some of the analysis of a pick is aimed more towards tourneys.
Also, if you're a subscriber, you get to peek "behind the curtainn" to some extent. That provides more context when trying to analyze why we might prefer one player over another (or what the system generating the numbers informing these picks thinks of every player on a given night's slate).
If someone can help me understand the system because all the information I'm getting when I'm logged in is the same that's already posted for free ,please help?
Jose: You should see the info for all players, not just the ones in the write up. That said, this is probably the absolute worst night ever to see value in having access to all of the projections due to there being only two games. I assure you, when you're trying to sift through dozens of options, having specific output projections for every player is huge.
Separately, please believe that having access to the Llineup Builder is huge. You can (almost) never simply take the recommendeations we make in these articles and construct an actual playable lineup with these alone (nor are they intended to, though there's no intention not to either). Even tonight with just two games, I couldn't directly constructi a lineup from the article (I actually tried?).
Additionally, DFSR will be rolling out a big platform update after the ASB, part of which has a lot to do with this very topic. That's just a couple of days. If you happened to pick one of these last few days for a free trial, post back and I'll have someone contact you, and I'm sure that can be addressed.
Hope that addresses your concerns.
Appreciate the quick response Ben and think I will be trying out the trial after the allstar break ;)
You're welcome, though I can't promise that every time.?
Se my post in response to another comment - I think you'll find your timing to be optimal.
Jones out for the pelicans
Hey everyone. Sorry, no updates article today. But can throw questions into these comments and I'll jump in throughout afternoon/evening.
No BDJ tonight. Cole, Holiday and Douglas are all in play.
You think Ryan Anderson will see extra time due to this as well?
I'm not convinced he does. He's a tournament play.
Nick,
Ryno's minutes strictly hinge on Anthony Davis and how they play Asik. Ryno doesn't play the 3 at all but NO has shown willingness to play him a little at the 5, although mostly at the 4 position. He is solid for 24+ minutes but is largely scoring dependent. IMO he's a good tourney pivot but not cash game safe.
TheWalrus82